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Trading The News 新闻交易: Page 5 of 7

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How to Trade the News With a Directional Bias

How to Trade the News With a Directional Bias in Forex

Let’s now see how to trade the news with a directional bias in a trading scenario. Let’s go back to our example of the U.S. unemployment rate report. Earlier, we gave examples of what could happen if the report came in light with expectations, or slightly better. Let’s say there was a surprising drop. What effect could this have on the dollar? One thing that could happen is that the dollar falls. What??? Isn’t the dollar supposed to rise if the unemployment rate is dropping?

There could be a couple reasons why the dollar could still fall even though there are more people with jobs.

The first reason could be that the long-term and overall trend of the U.S. economy is still in a downward spiral. Remember that there are several fundamental factors that play into an economy’s strength or weakness. Although the unemployment rate dropped, it might not be a big enough catalyst for the big traders to start changing their perception of the dollar.

The second reason could be the reason for the unemployment rate drop. Perhaps it’s right after Thanksgiving during the holiday rush. During this time, many companies normally hire seasonal employees to keep up with the influx of Christmas shoppers. This increase in jobs may cause a short term drop in the unemployment rate, but it’s not at all indicative of the long term outlook on the U.S. economy.

A better way to get a more accurate measure of the unemployment situation would be to look at the number from last year and compare it to this year. This would allow you to see if the job market actually improved or not.

The important thing to remember is to always take a step back and look at the overall picture before making any quick decisions.

Now that you have that information in your head, it’s time to see how we can trade the news with a directional bias.

Let’s stick with our unemployment rate example to keep it simple. The first thing you would want to do before the report comes out is take a look at the trend of the unemployment rate to see if it has been increasing or decreasing. By looking at what has been happening in the past, you can prepare yourself for what might happen in the future.

Imagine that the unemployment rate has been steadily increasing. Six months ago it was at 1% and last month it topped out at 3%. You could now say with some confidence that jobs are decreasing and that there is a good possibility the unemployment rate will continue to rise.

Since you are expecting the unemployment rate to rise, you can now start preparing to go short on the dollar. This is your directional bias. Particularly, you feel like you could short USD/JPY.

Just before the unemployment rate is about to be announced, you could look at the price movement of USD/JPY at least 20 minutes prior and find the range of movement. Take note of the high and low that is made. This will become your breakout points.

*Note: The smaller the range the larger the tendency there is for a volatile move!

Since you have a bearish outlook on the dollar (your directional bias), you would pay particular attention to the lower breakout point of that range. You are expecting the dollar to drop, so a reasonable strategy would be to set an entry point a few pips below that level.

Trading the news with a downside directional bias

You could then set a stop just at the upper breakout point and set your limit for the same amount of pips as the breakout point range.

Always have a stop and target in mind

One of two things could happen at this point.

  1. If the unemployment rate drops then the dollar could rise. This would cause USD/JPY to rise and your trade would most likely not trigger. No harm no foul!
  2. Or if the news is as you expected and the unemployment rate rises, the dollar could drop (assuming the entire fundamental outlook on the dollar is already bearish).

This is good for you because you already set up a trade that was bearish on the dollar and now all you have to do is watch your trade unfold.

Target should be equal to consolidation range

Later on, you see that your target gets hit. You just grabbed yourself a handful of pips! Booyeah!

The key to having a directional bias is that you must truly understand the concepts behind the news report that you plan to trade.

If you don’t understand what effect it can have on particular currencies, then you might get caught up in some bad setups. Luckily for you, we’ve got Pip Diddy and Forex Gump to help explain what effect each report can have on the forex market.

 

方向性交易


  
       让我们再回到美国失业率的例子。早前,我们说明了,如果数据和预期一致或略微好于预期可能出现的情况。现在,我们假设数据出现出人意料的下滑,这将对美元造成什么影响呢?美元可能出现的一种走势情况是下跌。什么,没说错吧?如果失业率下滑,美元不是应该上涨吗?

       这里有很多理由来解释,为什么,即使有更多的人就业,美元仍有可能下跌。

       第一个原因是,美国经济的长期和总体趋势仍处于下行态势。记住,有数个基本面因素会对经济的强弱状况产生影响。尽管失业率出现下降,但这仍不足以促使交易者们开始改变他们对美元的总体看跌观点。

       第二个原因可能是促使失业率下降的原因。可能,失业率的下降正好出现在感恩节假期的用工高峰之后。这这段时间,很多的公司通常会增加招聘来应对突然增多的购物者。就业人数的增加可能在短期内导致失业率的下降,但是这并不能改变美国经济的长期前景。

       利用更精确的方法来衡量失业状况的方法是,拿去年的数据和今年的相比。这能够让你看到,就业市场实际上是有好转还是并未好转。

       我们需要记住的重要一点是,在我们快速做出交易决定之前,始终要回看一下总体的经济态势。

       现在,你的脑子中应该有了这方面的认识,下面,我们将教你,如何利用新闻进行方向性交易。

       为简单起见,我们还是用失业率的例子。在报告公布之前,你首先需要做的事情是看一下失业率的运行趋势,以判断失业率是一直在上升还是一直在下降。通过对之前失业率的走势情况,你能够对未来的走势情况由一个大致的看法。

       假设,失业率一直在稳定上升。6个月前,失业率为1%,而在上个月,失业率上升到3%。你现在可能说,你很自信就业人数正在持续下降,因此失业率持续上升的几率会非常高。

       鉴于你预计失业率会上升,现在,你可以开始准备做空美元。尤其是,你感觉可以做空美元/日元。

       就在失业率报告公布之前,至少是20分钟之前,你观察了美元/日元的走势情况,你发现汇价处于区间波动中。注意看区间的高点和低点,它们将成为 突破点。

       注意:波动的区间越小,汇价出现较大波动行情的倾向越大。

       由于你预计美元将走低,你对美元/日元可能出现的下行突破行情会表示特别的关注。你预计预计汇价将下跌,所以,你采取的较为合理的策略是,将入场点位设在下突破点一线下方水平。

       你也可能将止损设在上突破点水平,并将你的获利目标水平设在和突破点区间相同点数的水平。

       这将对你的交易起到作用,因为你已经建立起看跌美元的交易模型,现在,你需要做的就是看着你的交易完成。

       随后,你看到美元/日元达到你所设定的目标水平。你已经捕获了大把的获利!庆祝吧!

       进行方向性交易的核心在于,你必须完全理解你打算交易的新闻报告背后的信息。如果你不能理解即将公布的新闻报告将对特定货币产生何种影响,那么,你所建立起来的交易模型可能会很糟糕。