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Trading The News 新闻交易: Page 4 of 7

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2 Ways to Trade the News

There are two main ways to trade the news:

a) Having a directional bias

b) Having a non-directional bias

Directional Bias

Having directional bias means that you expect the market to move a certain direction once the news report is released. When looking for a trade opportunity in a certain direction, it is good to know what it is about news reports that will cause the market to move.

Consensus vs. Actual Number

Several days or even weeks before a news report comes out, there are analysts that will come up with some kind of forecast on what numbers will be released. As we talked about in a previous lesson, this number will be different among various analysts, but in general there will be a common number that a majority of them agree on. This number is called a consensus.

When a news report is released, the number that is given is called the actual number.

“Buy the rumors, sell on the news.”

This is a common phrase used in the forex market because often times it seems that when a news report is released, the movement doesn’t match what the report would lead you to believe.

For example, let’s say that the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.8% and the consensus for this upcoming report is 9.0%.

With a consensus at 9.0%, it means that all the big market players are anticipating a weaker U.S. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar.

So with this anticipation, big market players aren’t going to wait until the report is actually released to start acting on taking a position. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released.

Now let’s say that the actual unemployment rate is released and as expected, it reports 9.0%.

As a retail trader, you see this and think “Okay, this is bad news for the U.S. It’s time to short the dollar!”

However, when you go to your trading platform to start selling the dollar, you see that the markets aren’t exactly moving in the direction you thought it would. It’s actually moving up! What the heck! Whyyyyyy??

This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.

Now let’s revisit this example, but this time, imagine that the actual report released an unemployment rate of 8.0%. The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9.0% because of the consensus, but instead the report showed that the rate actually decreased, showing strength for the dollar.

What you would see on your charts would be a huge dollar rally across the board because the big market players didn’t expect this to happen. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible.

This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of 10.0%. The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock!

Since the market consensus was 9.0% but the actual report showed a bigger 10.0% unemployment rate, the big players would sell off more of their dollars because the U.S. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released.

It’s important to keep track of the market consensus and the actual numbers, you can better gauge which news reports will actually cause the market to move and in what direction.

Non-directional Bias

A more common news trading strategy is the non-directional bias approach. This method disregards a directional bias and simply plays on the fact that a big news report will create a big move. It doesn’t matter which way the forex market moves. We just want to be there when it does!

What this means is that once the market moves in either direction, you have a plan in place to enter that trade. You don’t have any bias as to whether price will go up or down, hence the name non-directional bias.

新闻交易的方法

       对新闻的交易有两种方法:

              a) 方向性交易

              b) 非方向性交易

方向性交易

       方向性交易意味着,你预计,一旦新闻报告公布,市场会沿着某一特定方向波动。当我们在寻找某一方向的交易机会时,知道是新闻报告的什么因素造成了市场的波动很重要。

预期值vs实际值

       在一份新闻报告公布的数天甚至数周之前,分析师们会对要公布的报告数据进行预测。在我们之前的课程中,我们已经讨论过,不同分析师之间的预测数字并不会完全相同,但是,总有一个数字是绝大多数分析都普遍认同的,这一数字即为我们在财经日历上所看到的“预期值”。

       当某一新闻报告公布时,最终公布的数据我们称为“实际值”。

买谣言,卖新闻

       这在外汇市场上是广为流传的一句话,因为在通常情况下,当某一新闻报告公布时,市场的走势情况和你相信报告将导致的走势方向并不匹配。

       比如说,市场预计美国失业率将上升。假设上个月的美国非农就业人数是8.8%,而市场预期即将公布的失业率为9.0%。

       由于预期值为9.0%,这意味着所有的大型市场参与者都预计美国经济会进一步走软,结果就是,美元的走软。

       在这一预期下,大型的市场参与者在报告最终公布之前并不会采取观望态度。他们会提前采取行动,并开始卖出美元兑其他货币。

       现在,假如说实际公布的失业率数据和预期一致,为9.0%。

       作为一名外汇交易者,你看到这一数据后会想,“好的,数据确实糟糕,现在是时候做空美元了!”

       不过,当你在你的交易平台上准备着手做空美元时,你发现市场并没有完全按照你认为的方向走。这是因为,大型的机构参与者在报告公布之前,已经对他们的头寸进行了调整,而在报告公布之后,他们已经选择了获利回吐。

       现在,让我们再次看看这个例子。不过这次,设想一下实际公布的失业率为8.0%。市场参与者此前预计失业率将会升至9.0%,不过最终公布的数据却显示失业率出现下降,这表明美元会走强。

       在你的图形上会看到美元全盘会出现大幅上扬,因为大型的市场参与者此前并没有料到这一情况会发生。由于报告已经公布,且最终公布的数据和此前预计的数据非常不同,他们都试图以最快的速度对其仓位进行调整。

       如果最终公布的数据为10.0%,这一情况也会发生。唯一不同的是,美元这次并不会上涨,而是大幅跳水。由于市场预计失业率为9.0%,但是,实际失业率高达10.0%,大型机构投资者将更多的卖出所持有的美元,因为美国经济状况较此前预计的更为疲软。

       对数据的预期值和实际值的分析,能够帮助你更好的衡量,那些新闻报告实际上会导致市场波动,以及市场所选择的方向如何。

非方向性交易

       更为普遍的交易策略是非方向性交易。这一方法忽视市场的方向性波动,只是基于这一事实,即重要的新闻报告将导致市场大的波动。至于市场会朝着哪一方向波动并不重要。

       这是说,一旦市场朝着任一方向波动,你都有入场交易的应对计划。你不需要有任何看高或看空的倾向,故称为非方向性交易。