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Trading Divergences 背离交易: Page 5 of 8

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How to Avoid Entering Too Early When Trading Divergences

While using divergences is a great tool to have in your trading toolbox, there are times when you might enter too early because you didn’t wait for more confirmation. Below are a couple of tricks that you can make use of so that you have more confirmation that the divergence will work out in your favor.

Wait for an indicator crossover.

This ain’t so much a trick as it is a rule. Just wait for a crossover of the momentum indicator. This would indicate a potential shift in momentum from buying to selling or vice versa. The main reasoning behind this is that you are waiting for top or bottom and these can’t be formed unless a crossover is made!

Divergence Tip: Wait for an oscillator crossover.

In the chart above, the pair showed lower highs while the stochastic already made higher highs. Now that’s a bearish divergence there and it sure is tempting to short right away.

But, you know what they say, patience is a virtue. It’d be better to wait for the stochastic to make a downward crossover as confirmation that the pair is indeed headed down.

Divergence Tip:  After the crossover, price shot down.

A couple of candles later, the stochastic did make that crossover. Playing that bearish divergence would’ve been pip-tastic!

What’s the main point here? Just be patient! Don’t try to jump the gun because you don’t quite know when momentum will shift! If you aren’t patient, you might just get burned as one side keeps dominating!

Wait for indicator to move out of overbought/oversold territory.

Another trick would be to wait for momentum highs and lows to hit overbought and oversold conditions, and wait for the indicator to move out of these conditions.

The reason for doing this is similar to that of waiting for a crossover – you really don’t have any idea when momentum will begin to shift.

Let’s say you’re looking at a chart and you notice that the stochastic has formed a new low while price hasn’t.

Divergence Tip:  Wait for oscillator to move out of overbought or oversold conditions.

You may think that it’s time to buy because the indicator is showing oversold conditions and divergence has formed. However, selling pressure may remain strong and price continues to fall and make a new low.

You would have been pretty bummed out as trend didn’t continue. In fact, a new downtrend is probably in place as the pair is now forming lower highs. And if you were stubborn, you might have missed out on this down move too.

If you had waited patiently for more confirmation that the divergence had formed, then you could have avoided losing and realized that a new trend was developing.

Draw trend lines on the momentum indicators themselves.

This might sound a little ridiculous since you would normally draw trend lines only on price action. But this is a nifty lil’ trick that we wanna share with you. After all, it doesn’t hurt to have another weapon in the holster right? You never know when you might use it!

This trick can be particularly useful especially when looking for reversals or breaks from a trend. When you see that price is respecting a trend line, try drawing a similar trend line on your indicator.

Divergence Tip: Draw trend lines on the indicator itself.

You may notice that the indicator will also respect the trend line. If you see both price action and the momentum indicator break their respective trend lines, it could signal a shift in power from buyers to sellers (or vice versa) and that the trend could be changing. Oh yeah! Break it down like a Michael Jackson video!

背离的进一步确认

       尽管背离是一个相当有效的交易工具,但是有些时候,你可能过早的入场,因为你并未等到更多信息的确认。在本课,我们将教给大家提高利用背离交易胜算的一些方法,以便获得更多的信息确定背离的有效性。

等待交叉出现

       我们这里所说的方法并非是规则。交易者只是需要等到动能指标出现交叉后再选择入场。动能指标的交叉意味着汇价动能可能由超买转弱,或由超卖转强。等待动能指标交叉后入场的主要原因在于,交易者需要等待汇价顶部或底部的形成,除非动能指标出现交叉,否则顶部或底部的形成可能性不大。

       如上图所示,汇价所形成的高点低于前高,不过随机指标已经创出新高。你可能认为,这是空头背离形态,应该马上选择做空。

       但是,我们刚刚已经说过,耐心是个人美德的一种表现。因此,我们最好等到随机指标出现死叉后,方能证实汇价确实将走低。

       在数根蜡烛线形成过后,随机指标确实形成死叉,这时选择进行空头背离交易将更为保险。

       这里的要点是什么呢?很简单,保持耐心!不要急于开火,因为对于汇价动能什么时候出现转向并不十分确定。如果你没有足够的耐心,当汇价继续沿着之前走势波动时,你可能会被自己射中。

等待指标脱离超买/超卖区域

       另一种方法是等到动能指标进入超买区域或超卖区域,并等到指标脱离超买或超卖状况后入场。

       选择使用本方法的原因和上述方法的原因一样——因为你并不知道什么时候动能将会开始转向。

       比如说,你正在观察技术图形,你注意到随机指标已经创出新低,但是价格却尚未如此。

       你可能认为,是时候选在买入,因为随机指标显示汇价处于超卖状态,且背离形态已经形成。但是,卖盘压力可能仍将强劲,且汇价将会继续下跌,并进一步创出新低。

       如果你选在买入的话,现在你可能是一副颓废样子,因为汇价并未出现反弹。事实上,汇价不久可能开启一轮新的下跌趋势,因为汇价正在形成更低的高点。同时,如果你还是玩不固化,你可能再次错过新一轮下跌趋势机会。

       如果你有足够的耐心,在搜集到更多的信息确认背离形态的形成后,你可能已经避免了不必要的损失,且能够认识到新趋势正在形成。

判断动能指标趋势线突破

       这听上去可能有些滑稽,因为我们一般都只是在汇价走势图上画趋势线,不过,这一方法确实管用,在这里,我们也会和大家一起分享。

       毕竟,在你的外汇交易工具箱里面增添一件新的武器总不是什么坏事。你永远不会知道,你什么时候可能使用它!

       这一方法在我们寻找潜在的反转行情或趋势突破行情时尤其有效。如果你看到汇价正测试某一条趋势线,请尝试着在相应动能指标图形上画出类似的趋势线。

       你可能已经注意到了,随机指标也会测试趋势线阻力。如果你看到汇价和动能指标双双突破趋势线,这可能显示市场主导力量由买方转向卖方,或由卖方转向买方,而趋势也可能出现改变。