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Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts 突破交易法: Page 9 of 9

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Summary Of Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts

Trading breakouts and fakeouts are solid strategies to add to your forex trader's toolkit.

Trading Breakouts

With breakout trades, the goal is to enter the market right when the price makes a breakout and then continue to ride the trade until volatility dies down.

Breakouts are significant because they indicate a change in the supply and demand of the currency pair you are trading.

You’ll notice that unlike trading stocks or futures, there is no way for you to see the volume of trades made in the forex. Because of this, we need to rely on volatility.

Volatility measures the overall price fluctuations over a certain time and this information can be used to detect potential breakouts.

There are a few indicators that can help you gauge a pair’s current volatility. Using these indicators can help you tremendously when looking for breakout opportunities.

There are two types of breakouts:

  • Continuation
  • Reversal

To spot breakouts, you can look at:

You can measure the strength of a breakout using the following:

  • Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
  • RSI

Finally, breakouts usually work best and FOR REAL with some kind of economic event or news catalyst. Always be sure to check the forex calendar and news before figuring out whether or not a breakout trade is the right play for the situation.

Trading Fakeouts

Institutional traders like to fade breakouts. So we must like to fade breakouts also.

Are you going to follow the crowd, or are you going to follow the money?

Think, act, eat, sleep, and watch the same movies as these guys do. If we can trade in the same way the institutional players do, success is just a glimpse away.

Fading breakouts simply means trading in the opposite direction as the breakout. You would fade a breakout if you believe that a breakout from a support or resistance level is false and unable to keep moving in the same direction.

In cases in which the support or resistance level broken is significant, fading breakouts may prove to be smarter than trading the breakout.

Potential fake outs are usually found at support and resistance levels created through trend lines, chart patterns, or previous daily highs or lows.

The best results tend to occur in a range-bound market. However, you cannot ignore market sentiment, common sense, and other types of market analysis.

Financial markets spend a lot time bouncing back and forth between a range of prices and do not deviate much from these highs and lows.

Finally, the odds of a fake out are higher when there is no major economic event or news catalyst to shift forex traders’ sentiment in the direction of the break.

总结:交易突破和虚假突破


PS:突破交易和反向突破交易是非常棒的交易策略。

突破交易

       突破交易,其目的是在价格出现突破行情时入场,并跟随价格走势以实现最大获利,直到价格波动性消失殆尽。

       突破行情意味着价格波动将是非常显著的,因为它意味着你所交易货币对供需结构出现改变。

       你会注意到,和进行股票交易和期货交易不同,你无法获悉外汇市场的交易量。有鉴于此,我们需要依赖于波动性。

       当我们在寻找良好的突破交易机会时,我们能够利用波动性。

       波动性衡量的是总体价格在一段时间以内的波动情况,这一信息能够用来侦测潜在的突破行情。

       有一些指标能够帮助我们来测量汇价的当前波动性。当我们在寻找突破机会时,利用这些指标将在很大程度上帮助我们。

            ● 移动均线

            ● 布林带

            ● ATR指标

       有两种突破形态

            ● 持续形态

            ● 反转形态

       为识别突破行情,你可以观察一下形态:

            ● 图形形态

            ● 趋势线

            ● 通道

            ● 三角形

       你能够利用以下指标来测量突破的强度:

            ● MACD指标

            ● RSI指标

       最后需要指出的是,随着相关重大经济数据的公布或重大事件的发生,突破的出现通常会非常有效。在我们决定是否进行突破交易之前,请始终事先核对一下财经日历。

反向突破交易

       机构交易者喜欢进行反向突破交易。因此,我们也必须学着进行反向突破交易。

       你是想跟随绝大多数人的方向而动,还是跟随金钱的流向而走呢?

       绝大多数人想法千篇一律、吃相同是食物、在差不多想通的时间睡觉、会看相同的电影。如果我们能够和机构投资者采取相同的交易方法,成功离我们将不再遥远。

       反向突破交易意味着,和突破交易的相反方向进行交易。如果你认为,价格自某一支撑或阻力位的突破为假突破,且难以沿着突破方向进一步运行,你可以进行反向突破交易。

       精明的小部分交易者,比如机构投资者、更为老练的交易者,都喜欢进行反向突破交易。

       潜在的虚假突破通常见于由趋势线所组成的支撑或阻力位、技术形态前日高日低水平。

       最理想的答案是,在区间波动市场中。不过,你也不能够忽视市场情绪、主要的新闻事件、常识、以及其他的市场分析方法。

       金融市场在大多数时候都是维持在区间以内做来回运动,通常不会偏离高点和低点太远。

       组后需要强调的是,当市场没有重大经济指标或事件时,虚假突破出现的几率更高。