Start Learning Forex Now: We Provide Tutorial in EN / 中文.
Forex Malaysia 马来西亚外汇

Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts 突破交易法: Page 7 of 9

Facebook icon

Fade the Breakout

Fade the breakout you say? Was that just a typo? Did you mean to say, “trade the breakout”?

Nope!

Fading breakouts simply means trading in the opposite direction of the breakout.

Fading breakouts = trading false breakouts.

You would fade a breakout if you believe that a breakout from a support or resistance level is false and unable to keep moving in the same direction.

In cases in which the support or resistance level broken is significant, fading breakouts may prove to be smarter than trading the breakout.

Keep in mind that fading breakouts is a great short-term strategy. Breakouts tend to fail at the first few attempts but may succeed eventually.

REPEAT: Fading breakouts is a great short-term strategy. It is NOT a great one to use for longer term traders.

By learning trade false breakouts, also known as fakeouts, you can avoid getting whipsawed.

Trading breakouts appeal to many forex traders. Why?

Support and resistance levels are supposed to be price floors and ceilings. If these levels are broken, one would expect for price to continue in the same direction as the breakage.

If a support level is broken, that means that the general price movement is downwards and people are more likely to sell than buy.

Conversely, if a resistance level is broken, then the crowd believes that price is more likely to rally even higher and will tend to buy rather than sell.

Independent retail forex traders have greedy mentalities. They believe in trading in the direction of the breakout. They believe in huge gains on huge moves. Catch the big fish, forget the small fries.

In a perfect world, this would be true. But the world is not perfect. Frogs and princesses do not live happily ever after. What does in fact happen is that most breakouts FAIL.

Breakouts fail simply because the smart minority has to make money off the majority. Don’t feel so bad. The smart minority tends to be comprised of the big players with huge accounts and buy/sell orders.

In order to sell something, there must be a buyer. However, if everyone wants to buy above a resistance level or sell below a support level, the market maker has to take the other side of the equation. And let us warn you: the market maker ain’t no fool.

Market Maker Causes Fakeouts

Retail traders like to trade breakouts.

The smart minority, the institutional, more seasoned traders, prefer to fade breakouts.

The smarter forex traders take advantage of the collective thinking of the crowd or inexperienced traders and win at their expense. That is why trading alongside the more experienced forex traders could be very profitable as well.

Which would you rather be part of: the smart minority that fades breakouts or the losing majority that gets caught in false breakouts?

反向突破交易

       如果你相信,价格对某一支撑位或阻力位的突破为假突破,而且难以沿着此前的方向波动,你可以进行反向突破交易。进行反向突破交易可能被证明比进行突破交易更为精明。

       请记住,反向突破交易是非常有效的短期交易策略。在价格开始阶段测试支撑或阻力位时可能以失败而告终,但是最终仍有可能成功。

       再重复一遍:反向突破交易时一种非常有效的短期交易策略。它不大适用于长线交易者。通过对虚假突破交易的学习,你能够避免变得茫然不知所措。

       反向突破交易对众多独立的交易者来说具有相当的吸引力,为什么呢?

       支撑位和阻力位就分别好比地板和天花板。如果这些价位被突破,我们会预计,价格可能会沿着突破方向继续波动。

       如果某一支撑位被突破,这意味着总体价格运行方向将向下,人们卖出的可能性比买入要更大。

       反过来说,如果阻力位被突破,那么大多数人会认为,价格更有可能进一步走高,相比于卖出,人们会更倾向于买入。

       独立的外汇散户具有贪婪的心态。他们相信,沿着突破的方向进行交易会获得巨额回报。他们相信,巨幅的波动伴随着巨大的收益。他们总是想抓住池子里的大鱼,而忘了大鱼附近的小鱼。

       在完美世界中,这种想法将是正确的。但是,我们的世界并不完美。王子和公主最终并不总是过上了幸福的生活。事实上,绝大多数突破都以失败而告终。

       突破失败的简单原因在于,小部分交易者必须从大多数交易者那里赢得金钱。请记住,精明的小部分交易者可是市场中的大玩家,他们有着巨额的账户,所下的买单或卖单都是天文数字。

       我们要卖出什么,前提是必须要有买方的存在。不过,如果每一个人都打算在阻力位上方买进,或在支撑位下方卖出,市场将偏向天平的另一边。让我们警告你的是:市场可没这么笨!

       外汇散户们喜欢交易突破行情。

       精明的小部分交易者,比如机构投资者、更为老练的交易者,都喜欢进行反向突破交易。

       精明的交易者会利用大多数散户或经验不足交易者的想法做文章,并在和他们的博弈中处于上风。这也是为什么,在精明的交易者旁边交易,也可能获得非常可观的收益。

       你应该记住:精明的少数交易者进行反向突破交易,而绝大多数交易者则在虚假突破行情中损失惨重。