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Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts 突破交易法: Page 5 of 9

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How to Measure the Strength of a Breakout

As you learned earlier, when a trend moves for an extended period of time and it starts to consolidate, one of two things could happen:

  1. The price could continue in the same direction (continuation breakout)
  2. The price could reverse in the opposite direction (reversal breakout)

Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a way to know to confirm a breakout? If only there was a way to avoid fake outs…

Hmmm…

You guessed it…. THERE IS A WAY!

In fact, there are a couple of ways to tell whether or not a trend seems to be nearing its demise and a reversal breakout is in order.

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

By now you should have a good foundation of the MACD indicator. If you don’t, you might want to check out our lesson on MACD.

MACD is one of the most common indicators used by forex traders and for good reason. It is simple yet dependable and can help you find momentum, and in this case, the lack of momentum!

MACD can be displayed in several ways but one of the “sexiest” ways is to look at it as a histogram. What this histogram does is actually show the difference between the slow and fast MACD line. When the histogram gets bigger, it means momentum is getting stronger. When the histogram gets smaller, it means momentum is getting weaker.

Use MACD with histogram to measure breakout strength.

So how can we use this when trying to spot a trend reversal? Glad you asked!

Remember that trading signal we talked about earlier called divergences and how it occurs when the price and indicators move in the opposite direction? Since MACD shows us momentum it would make sense that momentum would increase as the market makes a trend. However, if MACD begins to decrease even when the trend is continuing, you can deduce that momentum is decreasing and this trend could be close to an end.

MACD with Divergence

You can see from the picture that as price was moving higher, MACD was getting smaller. This meant that even as the price was still trending, momentum was beginning to fade out. From this information, we can conclude that a trend reversal is highly likely.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI is another momentum indicator that is useful for confirming reversal breakouts. Basically, this indicator tells us the changes between higher and lower closing prices for a given period of time. We won’t go into too much detail about it but if you would like to know more check out our lesson on RSI.

RSI can be used in a similar way to MACD in that it also produces divergences. By spotting these divergences, you can find possible trend reversals.

RSI with divergence signals possible breakout.

However, RSI is also good for seeing how long a trend has been overbought or oversold. A common indication of whether a market is overbought is if the RSI is above 70. On the flipside, a common indication of whether a market is oversold is if the RSI is below 30.

Because trends are movements in the same direction for an extended period of time, you will often see RSI move into overbought/oversold territory, depending on the direction of the trend.

If a trend has produced oversold or overbought readings for an extended period of time and begins to move back within the range of the RSI, it is a good indication that the trend may be reversing.

RSI in overbought area in forex market.

In the same example as before, the RSI showed that the market was overbought for a billion days (ok not that long). Once RSI moved back below 70, it was good indication that the trend was about to reverse.

突破强度的测量

       你之前已经学过,当价格在经历一段更长时间趋势行情并开始横盘整理后,有两种情形可能发生:

            1. 价格可能沿着之前的趋势方向运行(持续突破)

            2. 价格可能反向朝反方向运行(反转突破)

       如果有一种方法来证实突破的发生,是不是非常美妙?

       事实上,有众多的方法来告诉我们,趋势将接近尾声,或反转突破行情即将开启。

MACD指标

       MACD指标是交易者使用最为广泛的技术指标之一,它使用简便,但是帮助你观察价格动能变动情况却非常有效,而在我们判断市场突破行情时,我们需要判断的是价格缺乏动能时的情况。

       MACD指标能以多种方式显示,但是,以柱状图显示是最有趣的一种显示方式。柱状图实际上显示的是MACD快慢线之差。当动能柱变长时,则意味着动能正在增强,当动能柱变短时,则意味着动能正在减弱。

       那么,当我们在识别价格反转时,我们该如何使用该指标呢?问题问得很好!

       记住,背离的出现会发出较为有效的交易信号,当背离出现时,价格和动能指标通常呈反向运动。鉴于MACD显示出价格动能的变动情况,那么,当市场趋势开启时,动能通常是会增强的。不过,如果出现即便趋势延续,但MACD动能开始下降情况,你可以推出,动能正在降低,且当前趋势可能正接近尾声。

       从上图中,你可以看到,尽管价格进一步走高,但是MACD动能柱却持续收缩。这意味着,尽管价格仍在延续之前趋势运行,不过动能正开始消退。从这一信息中,我们可以得出结论,趋势转向的可能性非常之高。

RSI指标

       RSI指标是另一种证实反转突破的有效动能指标。一般上来说,该指标告诉我们,一段时间以内更高和更低收盘价之间的变动情况。

       RSI指标能够和运用MACD指标相同的方法来使用,即它也可以发出背离信号。一旦你识别了这一背离状况,那么你便可以找到可能的趋势反转。

       不过,RSI指标也能够有效的指出,某一趋势已经有多长时间处于超买或超卖状态。如果RSI指标超过70,则通常意味着市场处于超买状态,如果RSI指标低于30,则通常意味着市场处于超卖状态。

       由于价格在更长一段时间内沿着之前趋势波动,你通常将看到RSI指标运行至超买或超卖区域,是否超买或超卖,这通常由趋势的方向来决定。

       如果RSI指标显示某一趋势在更长一段时间已经处于超买状态,并且随后开始脱离超买区域,那么这很可能暗示,趋势即将出现转向。

       如上图所示,RSI指标显示市场在数个交易日内均处于超买状态。一旦RSI指标回落至70以下,则表明趋势很可能出现转向。