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Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts 突破交易法: Page 4 of 9

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How to Trade Breakouts Using Trend Lines, Channels and Triangles

Just like breakouts on your face, the nice thing about breakout trading in forex is that opportunities are pretty easy to spot with the naked eye! Unlike the former, you don’t even have to look in the mirror!

Once you start getting used to the signs of breakouts, you’ll be able to spot good potential trades fairly quickly.

Chart Patterns

By now you should be accustomed to looking at charts and recognizing familiar patterns that indicate a reversal breakout. Here are just a few:

  • Double Top/Bottom
  • Head and Shoulders
  • Triple Top/Bottom

For more information check out our lesson on chart patterns.

In addition to chart patterns there are several tools and indicators you can use to supplement your case for a reversal breakout.

Trend Lines

The first way to spot a possible breakout is to draw trend lines on a chart. To draw a trend line you simply look at a chart and draw a line that goes with the current trend.

Falling trend line on EUR/USD

When drawing trend lines it is best if you can connect at least two tops or bottoms together. The more tops or bottoms that connect, the stronger the trend line.

So how can you use trend lines to your advantage? When the price approaches your trend line, only two things can happen. The price could either bounce off the trend line and continue the trend OR price could breakout through the trend line and cause a reversal. We want to take advantage of that breakout!

Looking at the price is not enough however. This is where using one or more of the indicators mentioned earlier in this lesson could help you tremendously.

Rising trend line then downward breakout.

Notice that as EUR/USD broke the trend line MACD was showing bearish momentum. Using this information we can safely say that the breakout will continue to push the euro down and as traders, we should short this pair.

Channels

Another way to spot breakout opportunities is to draw trend channels. Drawing trend channels are almost the same as drawing trend lines except that after you draw a trend line you have to add the other side.

Price moving inside a rising channel.

Channels are useful because you can spot breakouts on either direction of the trend. The approach is similar to how we approach trend lines in that we wait for the price to reach one of the channel lines and look at the indicators to help us make our decision.

Downward breakout out of the rising channel.

Notice that the MACD was showing strong bearish momentum as EUR/USD broke below the lower line of the trend channel. This would’ve been a good sign to go short!

Triangles

The third way you can spot breakout opportunities is by looking for triangles. Triangles are formed when the market price starts off volatile and begins to consolidate into a tight range. Our goal is to position ourselves when the market consolidates so that we can capture a move when a breakout occurs.

There are 3 types of triangles:

  1. Ascending triangle
  2. Descending triangle
  3. Symmetrical triangle

Ascending Triangles

Ascending triangles form when there is a resistance level and the market price continues to make higher lows. This is a sign that the bulls are slowly starting to gain momentum over the bears.

Ascending triangle formed from resistance and higher lows.

The story behind an ascending triangle is that each time the price reaches a certain high, there are several traders who are convinced about selling at that level, resulting in the price dropping back down.

On the other side, there are several traders who believe the price should be higher, and as the price begins to drop, buy higher than its previous low. The result is a struggle between the bulls and bears which ultimately converges into an ultimate showdown…

Forex Bull vs. Forex Bear

What we are looking for is a breakout to the upside since ascending triangles are generally bullish signals. When we see a breach of the resistance level the proper decision would be to go long.

Ascending triangle and breakout.

Descending Triangles

Descending triangles are basically the opposite of ascending triangles. Sellers are continuing to put pressure on the buyers, and as a result, we start to see lower highs met by a strong support level.

Descending triangle formed from support and lower highs.

Descending triangles are generally bearish signals. To take advantage of this, our goal is to position ourselves to go short if the price should breakout below the support level.

Descending triangle and breakout.

Symmetrical Triangles

The third type of triangle is the symmetrical triangle. Rather than having a horizontal support or resistance level, both the bulls and the bears create higher lows and lower highs and form an apex somewhere in the middle.

Symmetrical triangle formed by lower highs and higher lows.

Unlike the ascending and descending triangles which are generally bullish and bearish signals, symmetrical triangles have NO directional bias. You must be ready to trade a breakout on either side!

Symmetrical triangle can break out either way.

In the case of the symmetrical triangle, you want to position yourself to be ready for both an upside or downside breakout. A perfect time to use the one-cancels-the-other (OCO) order! Don’t remember what an OCO order is? Go review your types of orders!

Symmetrical triangle upward breakout.

In this scenario, GBP/USD broke out on the upside and our long entry was triggered.

Breaking down the Triangle Breakouts

To help you memorize the different types of triangle breakouts, just think of facial breakouts.

Ascending triangles usually breakout to the upside. So when you think of ascending triangles, think of breaking out on your forehead.

Descending triangles usually breakout to the downside. So when you think of descending triangles, think of breaking out on your chin.

Symmetrical triangles can break either to the upside or the downside. So when you think of symmetrical triangles, think of breaking out on both your chin and forehead.

Breakout!

Here’s a quick and disgusting memory tickler:

Ascending triangle = Forehead breakout

Descending triangle = Chin breakout

Symmetrical triangle = Forehead OR chin breakout

EWWWW!!!!

Gross eh? But we bet you’ll remember it!

突破的识别

       事实上,我们仅凭自己的双眼就能够识别突破行情。一旦你已熟悉突破行情可能出现的信号,你将能够很快的识别出潜在的交易机会。

图形形态

       现在,你应该养成观察图形并识别出会发出反转突破信号的图形形态。以下便是一些相关的图形形态:

              ● 双顶和双底

              ● 头肩顶和头肩底

              ● 三重顶和三重底

       如果你需要了解更多信息,可以回顾一下我们之前所讲过的图形形态相关课程。

       除了图形形态外,还有一些工具和指标可以用来识别反转突破行情。

趋势线

       识别可能出现的突破行情的第一种方法是在技术图形上画趋势线,方法很简单,你只需要沿着当前价格的运行方向画一条直线即可。

       当画趋势线的时候,如果你能够连接价格的两个顶部或底部,这是最好不过的了。趋势线所连接的顶部或底部越多,趋势线越强劲。

       那么,你如何利用趋势线进行突破行情交易呢?当价格触及趋势线时,只有两件事可能发生,价格要么自趋势线反弹并延续之前趋势,或突破趋势线并引发反转走势。我们所需要的就是利用好突破行情。

       不过,仅凭趋势线来判断突破行情还不够,利用一种或多种我们在本课之前所介绍的技术指标可以将给你提供巨大的帮助。

       如图所示,随着欧元/美元跌破趋势线支撑,MACD指标也显示出疲软走势。结合这一信息,我们更有理由说,突破行情将打压欧元/美元持续走低,我们应该选择做空该货币对。

通道

       另一种识别突破机会的方法是画趋势通道。趋势通道的画法和趋势线的画法类似,唯一的不同是,在你画完趋势线后,你需要再画一条与之平行的线。

       通道是非常有用的,因为你能够在通道的任意一方识别突破行情。使用通道的方法和我们使用趋势线的方法一样,即等到价格触及某一条通道线,并结合技术指标来确定突破的有效性,进而帮助我们做出相应的操作策略。

       如图所示,MACD指标发出较强的看跌信号,同时欧元/美元跌破通道下轨。这可是难得的做空机会!

三角形

       识别突破机会的第三种方法是借助三角形态。当市场摆脱震荡行情,并开始维持在较窄区间内窄幅整理时,三角形态宣告形成。我们的目的是,当市场出现盘整格局时,我们能够进行相应的头寸调整,以便当突破行情出现时,可以抓住随之而来的趋势行情。

       有三种类别的三角形态:

             1. 上升三角形
             2. 下降三角形
             3. 对称三角形

上升三角形

       当价格低点不断抬升,不过始终难以突破上方压力线阻力,此时便形成上升三角形。上升三角形给我们发出的信号是,市场多头力量正在逐渐超过空头。

       上升三角形给我们提供的更多信息是,每次价格触及一定高度,都有一些交易者相信在该位卖出,进而导致价格自该位回落。

       另一方面,也有另外一些交易者相信,价格应该进一步走高,而且随着价格开始下跌,他们会在较之前低点更高的价位买入。结果就是,多空双方的拉锯战,这场战争最终会以一方的完胜而收场。

       鉴于上升三角形通常发出看涨信号,我们所寻找的是上行突破的机会。当我们看到汇价突破上方阻力位,最合理的决定应该是着手做多。

下降三角形

       下降三角形运行方向和上升三角形正好相反。卖方持续给买方施压,结果我们看到的就是,价格高点持续走低,并形成一条强支撑位。

       下降三角形通常看跌。利用这一优势,我们可以在价格跌破支撑位时选择做空。

对称三角形

       第三种三角形态是对称三角形。和上升三角形形成水平的阻力位以及下降三角形形成水平的支撑位不同,在对称三角形情况下,市场多头和空头合力促使价格高点不断走低,低点不断抬高,最终促使汇价聚集于中部的顶点。

       和上升三角形通常看涨以及下降三角形通常看跌不同,对冲三角形没有明确的方向偏好。你应该做好汇价朝上或下任一方向波动的准备。

       在对称三角形情况下,最理想的做单方法是设置选择性委托定单(OCO),不知道OCO定单什么意思?回到我们幼儿园课程查看有关定单类型的讲解吧。

       在本例中,英镑/美元出现上行突破走势,汇价也因此触发买盘定单。

简单理解三角形突破的方法

       为了帮你记住不同种类三角形态的突破情况,还是让我们拿挤痘痘做比方吧。

       上升三角形通常出现上行突破走势。所以当你想到上升三角形时,你就想着在你的额头挤破青春痘时的情境。

       下降三角形通常出现下行突破走势。所以当你想到下降三角形时,就想想在你的下巴上挤破青春痘的情形吧。

       上行突破和下行突破在对称三角形中都有可能出现。所以当你想到对称三角形时,就想想在你的下班和额头挤破痘痘的情况吧。

       简单总结一下,就是:

              上升三角形 = 挤破额头的痘痘

              下降三角形 = 挤破下巴的痘痘

              对称三角形 = 挤破额头或下巴的痘痘