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Trading Breakouts and Fakeouts 突破交易法: Page 2 of 9

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How to Measure Volatility

Volatility is something that we can use when looking for good breakout trade opportunities.

Volatility measures the overall price fluctuations over a certain time and this information can be used to detect potential breakouts.

There are a few indicators that can help you gauge a pair’s current volatility. Using these indicators can help you tremendously when looking for breakout opportunities.

1. Moving Average

Moving averages are probably the most common indicator used by forex traders and although it is a simple tool, it provides invaluable data.

Simply put, moving averages measures the average movement of the market for an X amount of time, where X is whatever you want it to be.

For example, if you applied a 20 SMA to a daily chart, it would show you the average movement for the past 20 days.

There are other types of moving averages such as exponential and weighted, but for the purpose of this lesson we won’t go too much in detail on them.

For more information on moving averages or if you just need to refresh yourself on them, check out our lesson on moving averages.

Use moving averages to measure price volatility.

2. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger bands are excellent tools for measuring volatility because that is exactly what it was designed to do.

Bollinger bands are basically 2 lines that are plotted 2 standard deviations above and below a moving average for an X amount of time, where X is whatever you want it to be.

So if we set it at 20, we would have a 20 SMA and two other lines. One line would be plotted +2 standard deviations above it and the other line would be plotted -2 standard deviations below.

When the bands contract, it tells us that volatility is low.

When the bands widen, it tells us that volatility is high.

For a more thorough explanation, check out our Bollinger bands lesson.

Use Bollinger bands to measure price volatility.

3. Average True Range (ATR)

Last on the list is the ATR.

The ATR is an excellent tool for measuring volatility because it tells us the average trading range of the market for X amount of time, where X is whatever you want it to be.

So if you set ATR to 20 on a daily chart, it would show you the average trading range for the past 20 days.

Use ATR to measure price volatility.

When ATR is falling, it is an indication that volatility is decreasing. When ATR is rising, it is an indication that volatility has been on the rise.

波动的测量方法

       当我们在寻找良好的突破交易机会时,我们能够利用波动性。

       波动性衡量的是总体价格在一段时间以内的波动情况,这一信息能够用来侦测潜在的突破行情。

       有一些指标能够帮助我们来测量汇价的当前波动性。当我们在寻找突破机会时,利用这些指标将在很大程度上帮助我们。

1. 移动均线

       移动均线很可能是交易者使用最为普通的经济指标,尽管该指标使用简单,但是所提供的信息却是无价的。

       简单来说,移动均线测量的是在X段时间内市场的平均运动情况,X能够由你自己的偏好任意设定。

       比如说,如果你偏好在日图中使用20 SMA,那么,该均线显示的就是过去20天的价格平均走势情况。

       当然,也有其他类别的移动均线,比如指数加权移动均线,不过本课的目的不是对这些细节做更细致的讨论。

       如果你要了解更多有关移动均线的信息,或如果你仅仅需要对这些知识做一个回顾,可以回到我们的小学四年级课程进行学习。

2. 布林带

       布林带是测量市场波动性的非常优秀工具,因为这也正是布林带的强项。

       布林带通常由2条标准差为2的线组成,这两条线分布在X段时间内移动均线的上方和下方,X也由你自己设置。

       比如说,如果你将X值设为20,那么你将得到20SMA和其他两条线。一条是标准差为+2的线,另一条是标准差为-2的线。

       当布林带收缩时,则表明波动性降低;

       当布林带扩张时,则表明波动性提高。

3. ATR指标

       最后一种可用指标是真实平均区域指标(ATR)。

       ATR指标也是测量波动性非常有效的指标,因为它告诉我们过去X段时间内的平均波动区间,X也由我们的喜好设定。

       比如说,如果你在日图上设定ATR指标为20,那么它显示的就是在过去20天的平均交易区间情况。

       当ATR下降时,它表明市场波动性在降低,而当ATR上升时,则表明波动性在增强。