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Risk Management 风险管理: Page 5 of 6

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Reward-to-Risk Ratio

Reward-to-Risk Ratio In Forex Trading

Another way you can increase your chances of profitability is to trade when you have the potential to make 3 times more than you are risking. If you give yourself a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, you have a significantly greater chance of ending up profitable in the long run.

Take a look at this chart as an example:

10 Trades Loss Win
1 $1,000  
2   $3,000
3 $1,000  
4   $3,000
5 $1,000  
6   $3,000
7 $1,000  
8   $3,000
9 $1,000  
10   $3,000
Total $5,000 $15,000

In this example, you can see that even if you only won 50% of your trades, you would still make a profit of $10,000. Just remember that whenever you trade with a good risk to reward ratio, your chances of being profitable are much greater even if you have a lower win percentage.

BUT…

And this is a big one, like Jennifer Lopez’s behind… setting large reward-to-risk ratio comes at a price. On the very surface, the concept of putting a high reward-to-risk ratio sounds good, but think about how it applies in actual trade scenarios.

Let’s say you are a scalper and you only wish to risk 3 pips. Using a 3:1 reward to risk ratio, this means you need to get 9 pips. Right off the bat, the odds are against you because you have to pay the spread.

If your broker offered a 2 pip spread on EUR/USD, you’ll have to gain 11 pips instead, forcing you to take a difficult 4:1 reward to risk ratio. Considering the exchange rate of EUR/USD could move 3 pips up and down within a few seconds, you would be stopped out faster than you can say “Uncle!”

If you were to reduce your position size, then you could widen your stop to maintain your desired reward/risk ratio. Now, if you increased the pips you wanted to risk to 50, you would need to gain 153 pips. By doing this, you are able to bring your reward-to-risk ratio somewhere nearer to your desired 3:1. Not so bad anymore, right?

In the real world, reward-to-risk ratios aren’t set in stone. They must be adjusted depending on the time frame, trading environment, and your entry/exit points. A position trade could have a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 10:1 while a scalper could go for as little as 0.7:1.

If you want a real world example of traders trying to maximize reward-to-risk ratios, you should check out Pipcrawler’s Pick of the Day blog and Cyclopip’s Weekly Winner. Pipcrawler normally takes trade setups that have at least 2:1 ratios, while Cyclopip pinpoints the best setups from the previous week that would have maximized his profits.

报酬对风险的比率(RRR)


       另一种你可以用来提高盈利的方式,就是只有在当你觉得,潜在的报酬率大于风险3倍的情况下才进行交易。如果你给自己预设的风险回报比是3:1,那么你在经过长期的交易中,明显拥有很大的优势。看看下面这个图表的例子:

十笔交易
损失
获利
1
$1,000
 
2   $3,000
3
$1,000
 
4   $3,000
5
$1,000
 
6   $3,000
7
$1,000
 
8   $3,000
9
$1,000
 
10   $3,000
总数
$5,000
$15,000


       在这个例子中,你可以看见即使你的胜率只有50%,你仍然可以挣得$10,000的利润。只需要记得,无论你什么时候想要进行交易,只要具有良好的风险回报比例,即使你的胜率较低,你也拥有获得高盈利的交易优势。

       但是……

       而且是一个很大的“但是”,像拉丁天后Jennifer Lopez的屁股一样。。。设立高的RRR是要付出代价的。从非常的表面上看,一个高回报的风险比的概念听起来确实不错,但想一想该如何把它应用于实际的交易情况下。

       让我们假设你是个剥头皮交易者,你只是想冒险3个点的风险。如果使用3:1的回报风险比,这意味着你需要获得9个点。从一开始,机会就对你不利,因为你还需要支付差价。

       如果你的经纪商在欧元/美元提出的差价是2点,那你现在最少需要要获利11个点,这间接迫使你采用1:4的风险回报比例。只要细想下欧元/美元的汇率,就知道随时都会在短短的几秒内,上下波动个3点。这会快到让你在还没来得及,呼叫“当铺的老板”前,就直接被踢出游戏来。

       如果你想要缩小你的头寸,那么你可以扩大你的目标,来维持你想要的风险回报比。现在,如果你想将冒险的点数增加到50个点,那你就需要预设获利153个点。这样做的话,你就能够将你的风险回报比,维持在接近你所期望的3:1。还不错呗,不是吗?

       在现实中,风险回报比不是一成不变的。它们需要依据于时间框架、市场环境,和你进场/出场的位置,来进行调节的。一个持仓交易可以有高达10:1的风险回报率,而剥头皮交易却是少得可怜的0.7:1。