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Risk Management 风险管理: Page 3 of 6

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Drawdown and Maximum Drawdown Explained

Forex Drawdown

So we know that risk management will make us money in the long run, but now we’d like to show you the other side of things. What would happen if you didn’t use risk management rules?

Consider this example:

Let’s say you have a $100,000 and you lose $50,000. What percentage of your account have you lost?

The answer is 50%.

Simple enough.

This is what traders call a drawdown.

A drawdown is the reduction of one’s capital after a series of losing trades. This is normally calculated by getting the difference between a relative peak in capital minus a relative trough. Traders normally note this down as a percentage of their trading account.

Drawdown

Losing Streak

Losing Streak Drawdown

In trading, we are always looking for an edge. That is the whole reason why traders develop systems. A trading system that is 70% profitable sounds like a very good edge to have. But just because your trading system is 70% profitable, does that mean for every 100 trades you make, you will win 7 out of every 10?

Not necessarily! How do you know which 70 out of those 100 trades will be winners?

The answer is that you don’t. You could lose the first 30 trades in a row and win the remaining 70. That would still give you a 70% profitable system, but you have to ask yourself, “Would you still be in the game if you lost 30 trades in a row?”

This is why risk management is so important. No matter what system you use, you will eventually have a losing streak. Even professional poker players who make their living through poker go through horrible losing streaks, and yet they still end up profitable.

The reason is that the good poker players practice risk management because they know that they will not win every tournament they play. Instead, they only risk a small percentage of their total bankroll so that they can survive those losing streaks.

This is what you must do as a trader. Drawdowns are part of trading. The key to being a successful forex trader is coming up with trading plan that enables you to withstand these periods of large losses. And part of your trading plan is having risk management rules in place.

Only risk a small percentage of your “trading bankroll” so that you can survive your losing streaks. Remember that if you practice strict money management rules, you will become the casino and in the long run, “you will always win.”

In the next section, we will illustrate what happens when you use proper risk management and when you don’t.

资金回撤和最大跌幅



       既然我们已经知道了,资金管理能使我们的长期的交易中赚取利润。但现在,我们将向你们展示另外一种情况。如果你没有遵守资金管理的规则,将会发生什么事?

       思考下面这个例子:

       假设你有$100,000,然后你亏了$50,000。那么你亏损了账户的多少百分比呢?

       答案是50%。

       一个非常简单的问题。

       这就是交易者们所说的资金回撤。

       资金回撤是指,在经过一连串的失败交易之后,交易者资金减少的程度。这通常是通过计算,自己资本的最大值和最小值之间的差异,所得到的结果。交易者们通常会将资金回撤的数额,以百分比的形式记录在交易账目上。

一连串的失败

       在交易时,我们一直在寻找一种优势。这也是交易者们,致力于发展各种交易系统的主要原因。一个赢率高达70%的交易系统,听上去像是拥有了不错的优势。但是你的系统,即使是拥有了70%的赢率,难道就代表你交易的100笔单子中,可以每交易10笔都赢得7笔吗?

       那可不一定哟!你怎么知道100笔的交易中,是哪70笔将会赢利呢?

       答案是:你根本没法知道,那70笔是分布在哪里。你可能会在开始的前三十笔交易中连续亏损,然后在接下来的70笔中实现赢利。这仍然是个可以为你赢利70%的系统,但你需要问问你自己,“如果连续亏损了30次之后,你还能活下来,继续玩这个游戏吗?

       这就是为什么资金管理是非常重要的原因。无论你使用的是什么样的系统,终究都会遇到连续的亏损。即使是以扑克牌为生的职业扑克玩家,在经历了可怕的连续亏损之后,他们还是能赚钱的。

       主要的原因就是,优秀的扑克牌玩家,都拥有完善的资金管理方法,因为他们知道自己不可能把把都赢。所以他们只承担,自己总资金的一个很小百分比亏损,这样他们就能在一连串的亏损中活下来,并取得最后的胜利。

       这些是你作为交易者所必须遵守的。资金回撤是交易中的一部分。想成为一名成功的交易者,主要的关键是遵守一个能使您,抵御一连串亏损的交易计划。确保你的交易计划,已经让风险管理就位了。

       只是使用您的“交易资金”中,很小的一部分来冒险,你才能在一连串的亏损中幸存下来。记住这点,如果你严格的实行资金管理规则,你将会成为像赌场老板那样的人,从长期来看,“你将永远是一个赢家。”

       在下一个课程里,我们将会举例说明,当你运用适当的资金管理时,会出现什么效果,不用的话又会怎样。