Start Learning Forex Now: We Provide Tutorial in EN / 中文.
Forex Malaysia 马来西亚外汇

Reason Cause of Death of Forex Traders 外汇交易首要死因: Page 6 of 8

Facebook icon

Low Leverage Allows New Forex Traders To Survive

Leverage

Here’s a chart of how much your account balance changes if prices moves depending on your leverage.

Leverage % Change in Currency Pair % Change in Account
100:1 1% 100%
50:1 1% 50%
33:1 1% 33%
20:1 1% 20%
10:1 1% 10%
5:1 1% 5%
3:1 1% 3%
1:1 1% 1%

Let’s say you bought USD/JPY and it goes up by 1% from 120.00 to 121.20. If you trade one standard $100K lot, here is how leverage would affect your return:

Leverage Margin Required % Change in Account
100:1 $1,000 +100%
50:1 $2,000 +50%
33:1 $3,000 +33%
20:1 $5,000 +20%
10:1 $10,000 +10%
5:1 $20,000 +5%
3:1 $33,000 +3%
1:1 $100,000 +1%

Let’s say you bought USD/JPY and it goes down by 1% from 120.00 to 118.80. If you trade one standard $100K lot, here is how leverage would affect your return (or loss):

Leverage Margin Required % Change in Account
100:1 $1,000 -100%
50:1 $2,000 -50%
33:1 $3,000 -33%
20:1 $5,000 -20%
10:1 $10,000 -10%
5:1 $20,000 -5%
3:1 $33,000 -3%
1:1 $100,000 -1%

The more leverage you use, the less “breathing room” you have for the market to move before a margin call.

You’re probably thinking, “I’m a day trader, I don’t need no stinkin’ breathing room. I only use 20-30 pip stop losses.”

Okay, let’s take a look:

Example #1

You open a mini account with $500 which trades $10K mini lots and only requires .5% margin.

You buy 2 mini lots of EUR/USD. Your true leverage is 40:1 ($20,000 / $500). You place a 30-pip stop loss and it gets triggered. Your loss is $60 ($1/pip x 2 lots).

You’ve just lost 12% of your account ($60 loss / $500 account). Your account balance is now $440.

You believe you just had a bad day. The next day, you’re feeling good and want to recoup yesterday losses, so you decide to double up and you buy 4 mini lots of EUR/USD. Your true leverage is about 90:1 ($40,000 / $440). You set your usual 30-pip stop loss and your trade loses. Your loss is $120 ($1/pip x 4 lots).

You’ve just lost 27% of your account ($120 loss/ $440 account). Your account balance is now $320.

You believe the tide will turn so you trade again. You buy 2 mini lots of EUR/USD. Your true leverage is about 63:1. You set your usual 30 pip stop loss and lose once again! Your loss is $60 ($1/pip x 2 lots).

You’ve just lost almost 19% of your account ($60 loss / $320 account). Your account balance is now $260.

You’re getting frustrated. You try to think what you’re doing wrong. You think your setting your stops too tight.

The next day you buy 3 mini lots of EUR/USD. Your true leverage is 115:1 ($30,000 / $260). You loosen your stop loss to 50 pips. The trade starts going against you and it looks like you’re about to get stopped out yet again!

But what happens next is even worse! You get a margin call!

Since you opened 3 lots with a $260 account, your Used Margin was $150 so your Usable Margin was a measly $110. The trade went against you 37 pips and because you had 3 lots opened, you get a margin call. Your position has been liquidated at market price.

The only money you have left in your account is $150, the Used Margin that was returned to you after the margin call.

After four total trades, your trading account has gone from $500 to $150. A 70% loss! It won’t be very long until you lose the rest.

Trade # Starting Account Balance # Lots of Used Stop Loss (pips) Trade Result Ending Account Balance
1 $500 2 30 -$60 $440
2 $440 4 30 -$120 $320
3 $320 2 30 -$60 $260
4 $260 3 50 Margin Call $150

A four trade losing streak is not uncommon. Experienced traders have similar or even longer streaks. The reason they’re successful is because they use low leverage. Most cap their leverage at 5:1 but rarely go that high and stay around 3:1.

The other reason experienced traders succeed is because their accounts are properly capitalized!

While learning technical analysis, fundamental analysis, sentiment analysis, building a system, trading psychology are important, we believe the biggest factor on whether you succeed as a forex trader is making sure you capitalize your account sufficiently and trade that capital with smart leverage.

Your chances of becoming successful are greatly reduced below a minimum starting capital. It becomes impossible to mitigate the effects of leverage on too small an account.

Low leverage with proper capitalization allows you to realize losses that are very small which not only lets you sleep at night, but allows you to trade another day.

Example #2

Bill opens a $5,000 account trading $100,000 lots. He is trading with 20:1 leverage. The currency pairs that he normally trades moves anywhere from 70 to 200 pips on a daily basis. In order to protect himself, he uses tight 30 pip stops. If prices goes 30 pips against him, he will be stopped out for a loss of $300.00. Bill feels that 30 pips is reasonable but he underestimates how volatile the market is and finds himself being stopped out frequently.

After being stopped out four times, Bill has had enough. He decides to give himself a little more room, handle the swings, and increases his stop to 100 pips.

Bill’s leverage is no longer 20:1. His account is down to $3,800 (because of his four losses at $300 each) and he’s still trading one $100,000 lot. His leverage is now over 26:1.

He decides to tighten his stops to 50 pips. He opens another trade using two lots and two hours later his 50 pip stop loss is hit and he losses $1,000. He now has $2,800 in his account. His leverage is over 35:1.

He tries again with two lots. This time the market goes up 10 pips. He cashes out with a $200 profit. His account grows slightly to $3,000.

He opens another position with two lots. The market drops 50 points and he gets out. Now he has $2,000 left.

He thinks “What the hell” and opens another position. The market proceeds to drop another 100 pips and because he has $1,000 locked up as margin deposit, he only has $1,000 margin available, so he receives a margin call and his position is instantly liquidated.

He now has $1,000 left which is not even enough to open a new position.

He lost $4,000 or 80% of his account with a total of 8 trades and the market has only moved 280 pips. 280 pips! The market moves 280 pips pretty darn easy.

Are you starting to see why leverage is the top killer of forex traders?

Forex Leverage

更多有关杠杆的知识

下图反映了价格基于杠杆变动时,你的账户余额大小。

假设你买入美元/日元,其价格上升了1%,由120.00升至121.20。如果你交易的是一标准手,即10万美元,下图反映的就是杠杆对你的收益的影响:

假设你买入美元/日元,其价格下降了1%,由120.00降至118.80。如果你交易的是一标准手,即10万美元,下图反映的就是杠杆对你的收益的影响:

你使用的杠杆越高,收到追加保证金前,你留给市场变动的“呼吸空间”就越小。

你可能在想,“我是即日平仓交易者,我不需要呼吸空间,我只用20至30点止损斩仓。”

好吧,让我们来看一下:

例一

你以500美元开了一个迷你账户,交易1万美元迷你手,仅要求5%的保证金。

你买入2迷你手欧元/美元。你的实际杠杆是40:1(2万美元/500美元)。你设定了30点的止损,它被触发了。你损失了60美元(1美元/点X 2手)。

你损失了账户的12%(60美元损失/500美元账户总额)。现在你的账户余额是440美元。

你想你只是不走运。第二天,你感觉不错,想要收复昨天的损失,因此你觉得加把劲,买入了4迷你手欧元/美元。你的实际杠杆约为90:1(4万美元/440美元)。你设定了30点的止损,你的交易受损了。你的损失是120美元(1美元/点X 4手)。

你损失了账户的27%(120美元损失/440美元账户总额)。现在你的账户余额是320美元。

你认为趋势会改变,所以你再次交易。你买入2迷你手欧元/美元。你的实际杠杆是63:1。你设定了30点的止损,你再次受损了!你的损失是60美元(1美元/点X 2手)。

你损失了账户的19%(60美元损失/320美元账户总额)。现在你的账户余额是260美元。

你很沮丧。你努力想哪做错了。你认为你的止损设定太紧了。

第二天,你买入了3迷你手欧元/美元。你的实际杠杆是115:1(3万美元/260美元)。你的止损设定为50点,它被触发了。交易开始时与你相悖,看起来你就要再次止损离场了!

但是接下来发生的更糟!你收到了追加保证金通知!

因为你以260美元的账户开了3迷你手,你的占用保证金是150美元,你的可用保证金仅为110美元。交易背离你37点,因为你开了3迷你手,你收到了追加保证金通知。你的头寸以市场价清偿了。

你的账户中仅剩150美元,在受到追加保证金后,你的占用保证金被退还给了你。

在总共4次交易后,你的交易账户从500美元降至150美元。70%的损失!你损失剩下的金额不会花太长的时间。

四次交易连败并不罕见。有经验的交易者也有类似的或更长的连败。他们成功的原因是他们使用较低的杠杆。大多数使用的最大杠杆是5:1,但很少达到那么高,而是处于接近3:1的水平。

有经验的交易者成功的另一个原因是他们资本规模合适!

尽管学习技术分析、基本面分析、情感分析、建立系统、交易心理十分重要,我们认为作为外汇交易者你是否成功的一个重要因素是确保你的账户资金充足,并用较小的杠杆交易那些资金。

低于最低起始资金,你成功的几率将大大减小。账户金额太小几乎不能缓和杠杆效应。

低杠杆和适当的资本使你能够损失较小,不仅能让你在晚上睡好觉,还能让你第二天继续交易。

例二

张三以5千美元开了能够交易10万美元标准手的账户。他用20:1杠杆交易。他交易的货币对每天变动70至200点。为了保护自己,他使用较紧的30点止损设定。如果价格背离他超过30点,他就会止损离场,损失300美元。张三觉得30点很合理,但他低估了市场的波动程度,发现自己经常止损离场。

止损离场4次后,张三受够了。他决定多给自己一些空间来应对摇摆,并将止损设定增加到了100点。

张三的杠杆不再是20:1了。他的账户变为3800美元(因为每次交易损失300美元),他仍然交易一标准手。现在他的杠杆是26:1。

他决定将止损设定减小到50点。他又开了2标准手的另一个交易,两小时之后,50点止损设定达到了,他损失了1千美元。现在他的账户里只有2800美元。他的杠杆超过了35:1。

他又尝试两标准手。这一次市场上涨了10点。他获得了200美元的利润。他的账户余额稍有增长,变为3000美元。

他另开了两标准手的新仓。市场下跌50点,他离场了。现在他只剩2000美元了。

他又开了个新仓。市场又下降100点,因为他有1000美元被锁定为保证金,他只有1000美元保证金可用,所以他收到了追加保证金,他的头寸立即被清算。

他现在有1000美元,不足以开新仓。

8次交易,市场只变动了280点,他就损失了4000美元或者账户的80%。市场变动280点相当容易。

你开始看到为什么杠杆是外汇交易者的头号杀手了吗?