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Pivot Points 枢心点: Page 5 of 7

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How to Use Pivot Points to Measure Market Sentiment

There is one other way to incorporate pivot points into your forex trading strategy, and that’s to use it to gauge market sentiment.

What this means is that you can tell whether traders are more inclined to buy or sell the pair. All you would need to do is to keep an eye on the pivot point. You could treat it like the 50 yard line of a football field. Depending on which side the ball (in this case, price) is on, you can tell whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand.

If the price breaks through the pivot point to the top, it’s a sign that traders are bullish on the pair and you should start buying the pair like it’s a Krispy Kreme donut. Here’s an example of what happened when the price stayed above the pivot point.

Price opened and stayed above pivot point

In this example, we see that EUR/USD gapped up and opened above the pivot point. The price then rose higher and higher, breaking through all the resistance levels.

Now, if price breaks through the pivot point to the bottom, then you should start selling the pair like it’s Enron stock. The price being below the pivot point would signal bearish sentiment and that sellers could have the upper hand for the trading session.

Let’s take a look at a chart of GBP/USD.

Price opened and stayed below the pivot point

In the chart above, we see that the price tested the pivot point, which held as a resistance level. Next thing you know, the pair keeps going lower and lower. If you had taken the clue that price remained below the pivot point and sold the pair, you would have made some nice moolah. GBP/USD dropped almost 300 pips!

Of course, it doesn’t always work out like this. There are times when you think that forex traders are bearish on a pair, only to see that the pair reverses and breaks through to the top!

Pivot points are of no help as buyers and sellers are undecided

In this example, if you saw price breaking lower from the pivot point and sold, you would have had a sad, sad day. Later on during the European session, EUR/USD popped higher, eventually breaking through the pivot point. What’s more, the pair stayed above the pivot point, showing how buyers were rockin’ away.

The lesson here?

Traders are fickle!

How forex traders feel about a currency can shift dramatically day to day, even session to session. This is why you cannot simply buy when price is above the pivot point or sell when it is below it.

Instead, if you choose to use pivot point analysis in this way, you should combine it with other indicators to help you determine overall market sentiment.

使用轴心点来判断市场情绪

       这里还有另外一种轴心点的使用方法,可以结合进你的交易策略里,就是使用它来评估 市场的情绪。

       这意味着你可以知道,交易者们是更倾向于买进还是卖出这货币对。你唯一需要做的,就是睁大眼睛注意着轴心点。你也可以把它当成美式足球球场中央的50码线。通过判断橄榄球(在这里,就是指价格)在球场的位置,你可以知道是买家们还是卖家们,谁占了上风。

       如果价格突破轴心点向上升,这意味着交易者们都乐观看好该货币对,你应该就像在Krispy Kreme的甜甜圈连锁店前,抢购脆奶油donut的情形,开始买进这货币对。下面是一个例子,关于价格呆在轴心点上方的情形。

       在这个例子中,我们看到欧元/美元向上跳空,并在轴心点的上方高开。价格之后越涨越高,并打破了所有的阻力位。

       现在,如果价格跌破枢轴点的下方,那么你应该开始卖出这一货币对,就像是卖出闻名的诈骗公司Enron的股票一样。当价格低于枢轴点时,意味着市场充斥着悲观情绪,而卖方在交易时段能可能会占得上风。

       让我们来看看一个关于英镑/美元的图表

       在上图中,我们看到价格在开始时,测试了枢心点PP的位置,枢心点就像阻力位一样阻挡了趋势。接下来情况你已经知道,价格一直低迷。如果你已经掌握了线索,发现价格一直低于枢轴点,你就该卖出这货币对,这样你就可以获得一些漂亮的钞票。英镑/美元下跌了约300点。

       当然,这个方法并不是每次都有效的。有时候当你 想了解交易者们是否做空该货币对时,你只需要看一看那货币对是否开始反转,还是开始向上突破价位。

       在这个例子中,假设一开始你注意到价格一直低于枢心点,所以你开始卖出,结果你得到了一个很伤心、非常伤心的一天。因为在不久的欧洲交易时段,欧元/美元突然弹得很高,最终向上突破了枢心点。更重要的是,该货币对之后就一直呆在枢心点上方,这就表明了交易者们的情绪,已经从悲观的突然转成快乐得在摇滚了。

       这里的教训是什么呢?

       交易者们的情绪是善变的!

       交易者们对于一种货币的感觉,可以在每天、甚至是每个时段,喜剧化的改变。这就是为什么你不能简单的,在价格高于枢心点时买进;或是在价格低于枢心点时卖出。

       相反,如果你选择使用枢心点来进行情绪分析,那你应该把它结合其他的指标,来帮助你判断整个市场的情绪反应。