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Pivot Points 枢心点: Page 4 of 7

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How to use Pivot Points to Trade Breakouts

Just like your normal support and resistance levels, pivot point levels won’t hold forever.

Using pivot points for range trading will work, but not all the time. In those times that these levels fail to hold, you should have some tools ready in your forex toolbox to take advantage of the situation!

As we showed you earlier, there are two main ways to trade breakouts: the aggressive way or the safe way.

Either method will work just fine. Just always remember that if you take the safe way, which means waiting for a retest of support or resistance, you may miss out on the initial move.

Using Pivot Points to Trade Potential Breakouts

Let’s take a look at a chart to see potential breakout trades using pivot points. Below is a 15-minute chart of EUR/USD.

Using pivot points to trade breakouts.

Here we see EUR/USD made a strong rally throughout the day. We see that EUR/USD opened by gapping up above the pivot point. Price made a strong move up, before pausing slightly at R1.

Eventually, resistance broke and the pair jumped up by 50 pips!

If you had taken the aggressive method, you would have caught the initial move and been celebrating like you just won the World Cup.

On the other hand, if you had taken the safe way and waited for a retest, you would have been one sad little trader. The price did not retest after breaking R1. In fact, the same thing happened for both R1 and R2!

Notice how EUR/USD bulls tried to make a run for R3 as well.

However, if you had taken the aggressive method, you would have gotten caught up in a fake out as the price failed to sustain the initial break. If your stop was too tight, then you would have gotten stopped out.

Later on though, you’ll see that the price eventually broke through. Notice how there was also a retest of the broken resistance line.

Also, observe how when the pair reversed later in the day and broke down past R3. There was an opportunity to take a short on the retest of resistance-turned support – turned resistance (read that again if you have to!).

Remember that, when support levels break, they usually turn into resistance levels.

This concept of “role reversal” also applies for broken resistance levels which become support levels. These would have been good opportunities to take the “I think I’ll play it safe” method.

Where do you place stops and pick targets with breakouts?

One of the difficult things about taking breakout trades is picking a spot to place your stop. Unlike range trading where you are looking for breaks of pivot point support and resistance levels, you are looking for strong fast moves.

Once a level breaks, in theory, that level will likely become “support-turned-resistance” or “resistance-turned-support.” Again, this is called a role reversal…since the roles have been reversed.

If you were going long and price broke R1, you could place your stop just below R1.

Let’s go back to that EUR/USD chart to see where you could place your stops.

As for setting targets, you would typically aim for the next pivot point support or resistance level as your take profit point. It’s very rare that price will break past all the pivot point levels, unless a big economic event or surprise news comes out.

Let’s go back to that EUR/USD chart to see where you would put those stops and take profit.

Placing stops and profit targets using pivot points

In this example, once you saw price break R1, you would have set your stop just below R1. If you believed that price would continue to rise, you could keep your position and move your stop manually to see if move would continue. You’d have to watch carefully and adjust accordingly. You’ll learn more about this in later lessons.

As with any method or indicator, you have to be aware of the risks with taking breakout trades.

First of all, you have no idea whether or not the move will continue. You might enter thinking that price will continue to rise, but instead you catch a top or bottom, which means that you’ve been faked out!

Second, you won’t be sure if it’s a true breakout, or just wild moves caused by the release of important news. Spikes in volatility are a common occurrence during news events, so be sure to keep up with breaking news and be aware of what’s on the forex calendar for the day or week.

Lastly, just like in range trading, it would be best to pop on other key support and resistance levels. You might be thinking that R1 is breaking, but you failed to notice a strong resistance level just past R1. Price may break past R1, test the resistance and just fall back down.

You should make use of your forex knowledge of support and resistance, candlestick patterns, and momentum indicators to help you give stronger signals as to whether the break is for real or not.

运用轴心点在突破交易

       就像你传统的支撑和阻力位一样,轴心点的支撑/阻力位也不会永远有效。

       区间交易时,运用轴心点是有效果的,但并不是所有的时候都有效。当另一时候,这些支撑/阻力位都失效时,你应该已经准备好一些策略,来利用这个机会。

       就像我们之前示范给你的,价格突破时有两种主要的下单方法:积极的方法或安全的方法。

       这两种下单的方法,表现都不错。只需要永远记得,如果你采取安全的方法,这意味着需要等待价格,再次的测试支撑或阻力位后才下单。这样你可能会错过,最初的丰厚获利机会。

       让我们来看看一个图表,如何使用轴心点来寻找潜在的突破交易。下面是一个欧元/美元15分钟的图表。

       在这里,我们看到欧元/美元强劲上涨了一整天。我们可以发现到欧元/美元一开市向上跳空超过了轴心点上面。价格强劲上涨,升到R1的位置才稍微的停顿。

       最后,阻力位被突破,货币对跳升了约50点。

       如果你采取了积极的下单方法,你应该抓到了刚开始的价格移动,并且就像你刚赢得了美国橄榄球超级杯一样的在庆祝。

       另外一边,如果你采取了较安全的下单方法,需等待价格回测R1后才下单,那你已经成为个愁眉苦脸的交易者。因为价格在突破R1之后并没有回测。其实,价格在突破R2之后,也并没有回测。

       这时注意欧元/美元的公牛们是怎样逐渐的冲破R3的。

       所以,如果你这时采取了积极的下单方法,你会在价格刚开始突破R3失败时,抓到一个假突破。如果你的止损设得太紧,那么你的单子应该都被停损了。

       随后,你就会发现价格最终都跌破R3了。注意价格在突破R3的阻力位后,曾出现一个回测。

       同时,观察欧元/美元在日内稍晚,是如何反转并跌破R3的。当阻力位-转为-支撑位-再转为-阻力后(读多一遍,如果你看不懂的话!),的回测是个做空的最佳机会。

       还记得吗,当支撑位被突破后,它们通常转变成阻力位。

       这个“角色转换”的概念,同样适用于支撑位转成阻力位后,再转成支撑位。这些都是很好的“我要等到非常安全时才下单”的交易机会。

如何在突破交易中,设置止损和止盈。

       使用突破交易的困难之一,就是止损位置的设置。它不同于区间交易的时候,在区间交易时,你只需要把止损设置在轴心点的支撑或阻力位后面。而突破交易时,你需要寻找到强劲的波动。

       一旦某个水平位被突破,从理论上说,这水平位就有可能成为"支撑位-转-阻力位" 或是 "阻力位-转-支撑位"。

       如果你正在做多,当价格升破R1水平位时,你可以把你的止损,设置在R1水平位的下方。

       对于设置的止盈目标,你通常应该是瞄准在,下一个轴心点的水平位上。价格要突破所有的轴心点水平位,是非常罕见的。除非市场出现重大的经济事情,或是突发新闻的发布。

       让我们回到欧元/美元的图表,来看看你应该在什么位置,设置止损和止盈。

       在这个例子中,一旦你看到价格突破R1,你可以把你的止损设置在R1下方。如果你相信价格将继续上升,你可以继续持有你的头寸,并随着价格的上升,手动的移动你的止损位。你将需要密切的注意价格波动,并做出相应的调整。你会在下一课的内容中,学到更多这方面的知识。

       和其他的交易方法或指标一样,当你使用轴心点来进行突破交易时,你必须对风险非常的小心。

       首先,你完全不知道价格是否会继续下去。你可能会认为价格将会继续上升,结果你抓到了一个顶部或是底部,这意味着你已经被骗得头昏脑花了!

       第二,你不知道这个价格突破的真实性,可能只是因为发布新闻数据,所造成的狂野波动。在新闻事件中,价格出现激烈的波动,是很平常的情况。所以一定注意突发性的新闻,和小心外汇日历上,公布的经济数据。

       最后,就像在区间交易一样,突破交易最好是结合其他的,关键支撑和阻力位一起使用。你可能会认为价格已经完全突破R1,但你却没有注意到有另一种很强的阻力位在R1上方。结果价格在突破R1后、测试了该上方的另一种阻力位后,就跌回下方接续滑落。

       你应该好好利用你的所有知识,像支撑/阻力位、蜡烛形态,和动能指标等等,来帮助你判断该价格的突破,是否真实。