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Oscillators and Momentum indicators 振荡器&动量指标: Page 3 of 4

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How to Use Momentum Indicators to Confirm a Trend

So how do we spot a trend?

The indicators that can do so have already been identified as MACD and moving averages.

These indicators will spot trends once they have been established, at the expense of delayed entry.

The bright side is that there’s less chance of being wrong.

Lagging indicators giving correct signals

On GBP/USD’s daily chart above, we’ve put on the 10 EMA (blue), 20 EMA (red), and the MACD.

Around October 15, the 10 EMA crossed above the 20 EMA, which is a bullish crossover.

Similarly, the MACD made an upward crossover and gave a buy signal.

If you jumped in on a long trade back then, you would’ve enjoyed that nice uptrend that followed.

Later on, both the moving averages and MACD gave a couple of sell signals.

And judging from the strong downtrends that occurred, taking those short trades would’ve given huge profits.

We can see those dollar signs flashing in your eyes!

Now let’s look at another chart so you can see how these crossover signals can sometimes give false signals. We like to call them “fakeouts.”

Lagging indicators giving wrong signals

On March 15, the MACD made a bullish crossover while the moving averages gave no signal whatsoever.

If you acted on that buy signal from the MACD, you just suffered a fake out, buddy.

Similarly, the MACD’s buy signal by the end of May wasn’t accompanied by any moving average crossover. If you entered a long trade right then and there, you might’ve set yourself up for a loss since the price dipped a bit after that.

Bummer!

滞后的指标(趋势指标)

       那么我们如何发现一个趋势呢?

       可以用来发现趋势的指标,已经确定了有: MACD 和 移动平均线。

       这些指标能够在趋势成立时,发现它们,但代价是错过进场的最好时机。

       它们的优点是:犯错的机会很少。

       以上是 英镑/美元的日图,我们加上 10 EMA(蓝色)、20 EMA(红色) 和MACD。

       在10月15日,10EMA 向上穿过 20EMA,这是一个牛市的交叉信号。

       同样的,MACD 做出了一个向上的交叉 和 买进的信号。

       如果当时你马上跳入多头的行列,你将会享受到这接下来的上升趋势。

       接下来,移动平均线 和 MACD 都给出了做空的信号。

       从接下来的强烈的下跌趋势来看,那些做了空单的将会获得巨大的利润。

       我们可以在你的眼睛里,看到闪烁的 $$$ 符号。

       现在让我们来看另一个图表,这样你就可以看到,交叉信号有时也会有愚弄你的情况。我们习惯称它们为“假信号”

       在 3月15日,MACD 做出了一个牛市的交叉,而移动平均线却没有发出任何的信号。

       朋友,如果你按照 MACD 的信号下了单,你就踩到了一个假信号。

       同样的在5月底 时,只有 MACD 发出了买进的信号。如果那时你立刻下了多单的话,之后价格的稍微下跌,可能已经导致你亏损了。

       这真是让人扫兴!