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Oscillators and Momentum indicators 振荡器&动量指标: Page 2 of 4

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How to Use Oscillators to Warn You of the End of a Trend

An oscillator is any object or data that moves back and forth between two points.

In other words, it’s an item that is going to always fall somewhere between point A and point B. Think of when you hit the oscillating switch on your electric fan.

Think of our technical indicators as either being “on” or “off”. More specifically, an oscillator will usually signal “buy” or “sell”, with the only exception being instances when the oscillator is not clearly at either end of the buy/sell range.

Does this sound familiar? It should!

The Stochastic, Parabolic SAR, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are all oscillators. Each of these indicators is designed to signal a possible reversal, where the previous trend has run its course and the price is ready to change direction.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples.

We’ve slapped on all three oscillators on GBP/USD’s daily chart shown below. Remember when we discussed how to work the Stochastic, Parabolic SAR, and RSI?

If you don’t, we’re sending you back to fifth grade!

Anyway, as you can see on the chart, all three indicators gave buy signals towards the end of December. Taking that trade would’ve yielded around 400 pips in gains. Ka-ching!

PoD Chart

Then, during the third week of January, the Stochastic, Parabolic SAR, and RSI all gave sell signals. And, judging from that long 3-month drop afterwards, you would’ve made a whole lot of pips if you took that short trade.

Around mid-April, all three oscillators gave another sell signal, after which the price made another sharp dive.

Now let’s take a look at the same leading oscillators messing up, just so you know these signals aren’t perfect.

In the chart below, you can see that the indicators could give conflicting signals.

For instance, the Parabolic SAR gave a sell signal in mid-February while the Stochastic showed the exact opposite signal. Which one should you follow?

Well, the RSI seems to be just as undecided as you are since it didn’t give any buy or sell signals at that time.

Leading indicators giving wrong signals.

Looking at the chart above, you can quickly see that there were a lot of false signals popping up.

During the second week of April, both the Stochastic and the RSI gave sell signals while the Parabolic SAR didn’t give one. The price kept climbing from there and you could’ve lost a bunch of pips if you entered a short trade right away.

You would’ve had another loss around the middle of May if you acted on those buy signals from the Stochastic and RSI and simply ignored the sell signal from the Parabolic SAR.

What happened to such a good set of indicators?

The answer lies in the method of calculation for each one.

Stochastic is based on the high-to-low range of the time period (in this case, it’s hourly), yet doesn’t account for changes from one hour to the next.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) uses the change from one closing price to the next.

Parabolic SAR has its own unique calculations that can further cause conflict.

That’s the nature of oscillators. They assume that a particular price movement always results in the same reversal. Of course, that’s hogwash.

While being aware of why a leading indicator may be wrong, there’s no way to avoid them.

If you’re getting mixed signals, you’re better off doing nothing than taking a “best guess”. If a chart doesn’t meet all your criteria, don’t force the trade!

Move on to the next one that does meet your criteria.

领先指标(振荡器)

       振荡器就是在两点之间来回移动的任何物件或数据。

       另一个说法,它是一个总在  A点与B点 之间运动的东西。就像是,你 电风扇的 开/ 关 按钮。

       我们的技术指标,就像你的按钮一样,不是“开”就是“关”。更确切的说,我们的振荡指标通常发出的不是“买进”就是“卖出”,但也有例外的情况,振荡指标有时会处在买和卖之间。

       这听上去很熟悉吗?它确实如此!

       随机振荡指标、抛物线以及相对强度指标(RSI) 都是振荡器。这些指标每一个,开始时都是被设计来,提示:可能会出现反,趋势已经走到头了和 价格已经准备随时会改变方向。

       我们来看一些例子。

       我们在 英镑/美元 的日图中,加入了三个振荡指标。还记得我们探讨过的随机振荡指标、SAR抛物线 以及 相对强度指标(RSI)是如何运作的吗?

       如果你不记得,我们就会把你送回到 上一个的小学课程!

       不管怎样,你可以看到图表上,这三个指标都在12月底给出做多的信号。下了买单的,已经赚得了接近400点的利润,听见入账的声音了吗Ka-ching!

       之后,在一月的第三周,随机振荡指标、SAR抛物线指标 和 相对强度指标,都给出了做空的信号。然后,开始了长达 3个月的下跌,如果你早就下了卖单,你已经赚了一大堆的点数了。

       大约在4月的中旬,这三个振荡指标又给出另一个做空的信号,之后价格再次大幅的下跌。

       现在让我们来看看一些,振荡指标捣蛋的例子,这样你就知道这些信号并不是每次都完美。

       在下面的图表中,你会发现有的指标给出了相互矛盾的信号。

       举例,在2月中旬时,SAR抛物线给出了做空的信号,但随机振荡指标显示了正好相反的信号。你应该遵循哪一个?

       然而,RSI指标这时候 似乎还在犹豫不决,它不懂究竟该给你做空 还是做多的信号。

       从上面的图表,你可以很快的发现到,有很多的假信号出现。

       在4月的第二个星期,随机振荡指标 和 RSI指标,两个都给出做空的信号,但这时SAR抛物线指标却没有给你发出信号。这段时间价格继续的攀升,如果你在那时段进场做了空单,你将会失去一些点数。

       五月的中旬,你可能还会有一单亏损。如果你是因为随机振荡指标 和 RSI 指标,发出了做多的信号,就采取了行动,而无视 SAR抛物线 在嚷着做空的信号。

       这套优良的指标组合,究竟出了什么问题?

       这个问题的答案,就在它们每一种指标,各自的计算公式当中。

       随机振荡指标,只是考虑某时间周期,价格的最高点 到 最低点之间的变化(在这个例子中,是指每小时)。但它是不考虑,从这个时间周期 到下一个时间周期 之间的价格改变。

       而 相对强弱指标(RSI),是只注意这个收盘价 到 下一个收盘价 之间的变化。

       最后的 SAR抛物线也拥有它独特的计算方法,这些就造成了它们信号的冲突。

       这些就是振荡指标的特点。它们认为价格反转时,都会出现特定的价格波动。当然,这只是一派胡言。

       虽然我们知道了领先指标为什么会发生错误,但却没有任何办法可以避免。

       如果你得到了含混不清的信号,那最好是什么都不做,总比胡猜乱杠的强。如果一个图表不能满足你的交易准则,那就不要勉强交易!

        往下一个图标去寻找,直到符合你的交易准则的才进行交易。