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Multiple Time Frame Analysis 多重时间框架分析: Page 4 of 7

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Why You Should Look at Multiple Time Frames When Trading Forex

Before we explain how to do multiple time frame analysis for your forex trading, we feel that it’s necessary to point out why you should actually flip through the different time frames.

After all, isn’t it hard enough analyzing just one chart as a forex trader?

You’ve got a billion indicators on, you’ve gotta read up on economic news, you’ve got basketball practice, a Call of Duty session, a hot date at McDonald’s…

Well, let’s play a game called “Long or Short” to show why you should be paying attention and putting in the extra effort to look at different time frames.

The rules of the game are easy. You look at a chart and you decide whether to go long or short. Easy, right? Okay, ready?

Let’s take a look at the 10 minute chart of GBP/USD on July 1, 2010 (7/01/2010) at 8:00 am GMT. We’ve got the 200 simple moving average on, which appears to be holding as resistance.

With price testing the resistance and forming a doji, it seems like a good time to short right?

We’ll take that as a yes.

Multiple Time Frame Analysis: 200 SMA holding as resistance

But dang, look what happens next!

The pair closed above resistance and rose another 200 pips!

Ouch! Oh well, too bad!

Multiple Time Frame Analysis: 200 SMA holding as resistance

What the hell happened? Hmm, let’s hop on to the 1-hour chart to see what happened…

If you had been looking at the one hour chart, you would have noticed that the pair was actually at the bottom of the ascending channel.

What’s more, a doji had formed right smack on the support line! A clear buy signal!

Multiple Time Frame Analysis: GBP/USD at the top of the channel

The ascending channel would have been even clearer on the 4-hour chart.

Multiple Time Frame Analysis: 4-hour chart: GBP/USD at the top of the channel

If you had looked at this chart first, would you still have been so quick to go short when you were trading on the 10-minute chart?

All of the charts were showing the same price data. They were just different time frames of that same data.

Check out another example of multiple time frame analysis in our forums.

Do you see now the importance of looking at multiple time frames?

We used to just trade off the 15-minute charts and that was it.

We could never understand why when everything looked good the market would suddenly stall or reverse. It never crossed our minds to take a look at a larger time frame to see what was happening.

When the market did stall or reverse on the 15-minute chart, it was often because it had hit support or resistance on a larger time frame.

It took a couple hundred negative pips to learn that the larger the time frame, the more likely an important support or resistance levels would hold.

Trading using multiple time frames has probably kept us out of more losing trades than any other one thing alone. It will allow you to stay in a trade longer because you’re able to identify where you are relative to the big picture.

Most beginners look at only one time frame. They grab a single time frame, apply their indicators and ignore other time frames.

The problem is that a new trend, coming from another time frame, often hurts forex traders who don’t look at the big picture.

为何你需要结合多个时间框架交易外汇

       在我们解释如何使用,多重的时间框架来分析之前,我们觉得应该指出,为什么你还需要浏览,不同时间的框架。

       毕竟,只是分析一个图表,已经是够难的了,不是吗?

       为了分析一个图表,你已经加上了十亿个指标,你也读了经济新闻,同时像篮球训练一样时常下单,情绪像战争一样处在使命召唤,每日准时到麦当劳报道。。。

       好吧,让我们再玩一个叫做“做多还是做空”的游戏,来示范为什么你要更加的注意,同时更加的努力,来查看这些不同时间的框架。

       这游戏的规则很简单。你先看一个图表,然后决定是做多还是做空,很简单吧?好了吗,开始了喔?

       让我们看看英镑/美元的10分钟图表,就在2010年7月1日,美国东部时间8am。我们已经加上了100期的简单移动平均线,用它来作为阻力或支撑。

       随着价格上升到平均线,开始测试阻力,并形成十字星,这看起来是一个很好的做空机会吧?

       我们就姑且先当你,是这样认为吧。

   

       但是见鬼了,看看接下来发生了什么事!

       该货币对迅速飞升了200多点后,在阻力位的上方收盘!

       喔!哎呦,太糟糕了!

   

       怎么会发生这种破烂事啊?让我们跳到1小时,更大的框架去查看发生了什么状况。。。

       如果你一直在看着1小时的图表,你应该注意到该货币对,实际上是在一个上升通道的底部。

       更重要的是,一支蜡烛已经在支撑线形成明显的十字星!这是一个明确的买进信号!

   

       在4个小时的图表中,更清晰的显示出价格是在一个上升通道中。

   

       如果你有先查看这个图表,当你在使用10分钟图表来交易的时候,你还会很快就下单吗?

       上面的这些所有图表,都是在同样的一天和时间,它们只是使用了不同的时间框架。

       现在你知道了,要查看多个时间框架的重要性了吧?

       过去,我们可能只是在15分钟的图表上进行分析,然后就肯定的下单了。

       这导致我们可能永远都不会明白,为什么一个看起来那么牛的市场,会突然失速或反转。也许我们没有意识到,必须在更大的时间框架中,看看发生了什么事。

       当市场在15分钟的图表上,出现失速或反转时,通常是因为它在更大的时间框架中,遇到了支持或阻力。

       这将让你在花费了几百个亏损的点子后,学会越大的时间框架,它的支撑和阻力位越重要的。

       同使用一个时间框架相比,应用多个时间框架肯定可以,让我们减少交易失败的亏损。多重时间框架让你可以持有一个头寸较长的时间,因为你已经能够识别出你下单的价位和宏观蓝图之间的关系。

       大多数初学者,只是仅仅查看一个时间框架。他们紧盯着单一的时间框架,运用着他们的指标,而忽略了其他时间的框架。

       问题是一个新的趋势,多数是由另一个时间框架所产生的。而这个新趋势,常常会伤害那些,忽略大局的交易者们。