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Moving Averages 移动平均线: Page 2 of 4

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Simple Moving Average (SMA) Explained

A simple moving average (SMA) is the simplest type of moving average in forex analysis (DUH!). Basically, a simple moving average is calculated by adding up the last “X” period’s closing prices and then dividing that number by X.

Confused???

Don’t worry, we’ll make it crystal clear.

Calculating the Simple Moving Average (SMA)

If you plotted a 5 period simple moving average on a 1-hour chart, you would add up the closing prices for the last 5 hours, and then divide that number by 5. Voila! You have the average closing price over the last five hours! String those average prices together and you get a moving average!

If you were to plot a 5-period simple moving average on a 10-minute currency chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 50 minutes and then divide that number by 5.

If you were to plot a 5 period simple moving average on a 30 minute chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 150 minutes and then divide that number by 5.

If you were to plot the 5 period simple moving average on the 4 hr. chart… Okay, okay, we know, we know. You get the picture!

Most charting packages will do all the calculations for you. The reason we just bored you (yawn!) with a “how to” on calculating simple moving averages is because it’s important to understand so that you know how to edit and tweak the indicator.

Understanding how an indicator works means you can adjust and create different strategies as the market environment changes.

Now, as with almost any other forex indicator out there, moving averages operate with a delay. Because you are taking the averages of past price history, you are really only seeing the general path of the recent past and the general direction of “future” short term price action.

Disclaimer: Moving averages will not turn you into Ms. Cleo the psychic!

Here is an example of how moving averages smooth out the price action.

Simple Moving Averages

On chart above, we’ve plotted three different SMAs on the 1-hour chart of USD/CHF. As you can see, the longer the SMA period is, the more it lags behind the price.

Notice how the 62 SMA is farther away from the current price than the 30 and 5 SMAs.

This is because the 62 SMA adds up the closing prices of the last 62 periods and divides it by 62. The longer period you use for the SMA, the slower it is to react to the price movement.

The SMAs in this chart show you the overall sentiment of the market at this point in time. Here, we can see that the pair is trending.

Instead of just looking at the current price of the market, the moving averages give us a broader view, and we can now gauge the general direction of its future price. With the use of SMAs, we can tell whether a pair is trending up, trending down, or just ranging.

There is one problem with the simple moving average: they are susceptible to spikes. When this happens, this can give us false signals. We might think that a new currency trend may be developing but in reality, nothing changed.

In the next lesson, we will show you what we mean, and also introduce you to another type of moving average to avoid this problem.

简单的移动平均线(SMA)



      一条简单的移动平均线就是一条普通的单纯简单移动平均线(废话!)。 基本上,一个简单的移动平均线的计算方法是,把“X”周期的收盘价加在一起,然后除以“X”。

       你感觉很困惑吗???

       不要担心,我们稍后会让它清晰明了。

       如果你要画 1小时,5周期简单移动平均线,你需要将5个,1小时的收盘价,加在一起然后除以5。 瞧! 这就是你在过去五个小时的平均收盘价! 把这些平均收盘价串在一起,你会得到一个移动平均线!

       如果你要绘制一个10分钟的5周期简单移动平均值,你就需要把过去50分钟的收盘价相加,然后除以5。

       如果你要绘制一个30分钟的5段简单移动平均线,就需要把过去150分钟的收盘价相加,然后除以5。

       如果你要绘制4小时的5段简单移动平均线。 就需要。。。。。。 好的,好的,我们知道,我们知道。 你已经明白了!

       大多数的图表会有指标为你做所有的计算。 我们之所以不厌其烦(又打哈欠!)的教你“怎样”计算简单的移动平均线,这是因为了解它非常重要,所以你已经知道了如何修改和调整该指标。

       了解一个指标是如何运作的,意味着你可以根据市场环境的变化,自己调整和改变策略。

       现在,就像其他的指标一样(除了肥婆),移动平均线也是个滞后指标。因为你得到的是,过去价格的平均价位,你仅仅只是看到了,最近的价格的总体波动路径和“未来”短期价格方向的预测。

   免责声明:移动平均线不会让你变成闻名美国的超能力巫师 Miss Cleo!

      下面是一个范例。

 

       在图表上,我们已经绘制了三种不同的简单移动平均线,在1小时内美元/瑞郎的图表。 正如你所看到的,时间参数越大的平均线,价格越滞后。

       请注意62期的这条平均线,它比30期和5期的平均线,更加远离当前价格。

       这是因为62期的这条平均线,是加上过去62期的收盘价再除以62的缘故。 你使用的平均线的参数时间越大,它对价格做出的反应就越迟钝。

       但这个图中的简单平均线告诉你,市场在这段时间内的整体氛围。 在这里,我们可以看出,这货币对正处于趋势中。

       这样让我们不是仅仅只是,以现在的价格波动来看待市场,简单平均线给了我们一个更广阔的视野,让我们对价格的未来波动方向,可以给出一个总体预估。 随着简单平均线的使用,我们可以判断一组货币对是上升中、下降中,还是震荡中。

       但是,简单平均线也有一个问题,那就是他们的反应比较迟钝。 当发生这种情况时,往往会造成我们的买卖信号滞后。

       在下一课中,我们将向您展示我们的意思,也向您介绍另一种移动平均线,以避免这一问题的产生。