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Market Sentiment 市场情绪: Page 6 of 9

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How to Pick Tops and Bottoms With the COT Report

As you would’ve guessed, ideal places to go long and short are those times when sentiment is at an extreme.

If you noticed from the previous example, the speculators (green line) and commercials (blue line) gave opposite signals. While hedgers buy when the market is bottoming, speculators sell as the price moves down.

Here’s that COT report chart again:

COT Report to Find Market Extremes in Sentiment

Hedgers are bearish when the market moves to the top while speculators are bullish when the price is climbing.

As a result, speculative positioning indicates trend direction while commercial positioning could signal reversals.

If hedgers keep increasing their long positions while speculators increase their short positions, a market bottom could be in sight.

If hedgers keep adding more short positions while speculators keep adding more long positions, a market top could occur.

Of course, it’s difficult to determine the exact point where a sentiment extreme will occur so it might be best to do nothing until signs of an actual reversal are seen.

We could say that speculators, because they follow the trend, catch most of the move BUT are wrong on turning points.

Commercial traders, on the other hand, miss most of the trend EXCEPT when price reverses.

Until a sentiment extreme occurs, it would be best to go with the speculators.

The basic rule is this: every market top or bottom is accompanied by a sentiment extreme, but not every sentiment extreme results in a market top or bottom.

抓住顶部和底部

       正如您应该已经猜到,当做空或做多交易的时候,最理想的位置,当市场情绪
极端
的时候。

       如果你有注意前面的例子,会发现:大型投机者(绿线)和商业贸易者(蓝线)呈现出相反的信号。正当商业对冲者,在外汇市场触底开始买进时;大型投机者却随着价格的下滑,不断卖出。

       还是同一张图:

       当市场价格上升接近顶部的时候,商业对冲者多数已经全部做空市场。而大型投机者却随着市场价格的攀升,还在不断买进。

       因此, 大型投机者的持仓头寸,可以用来指出趋势的方向;而 商业对冲者的持仓头寸,可以用来指出趋势逆转

       如果商业对冲者大量增加其多头头寸,而大型投机者还在增加其空头头寸,市场底部可能就在眼前。

       如果商业对冲者不断大量增加空头头寸,而大型投机者还在增加多头头寸,市场顶部即将出现。

       当然,要求精确的指出,市场情绪达到哪个极端位置会反转,这时很难的。所有,我们最好是什么也不做,等到一个实际的反转迹象出现,才开始行动。

       我们可以这样形容大型投机者们,他们追随趋势,所以准确抓住了市场波段的大部分,但是往往在反转点上出现问题。

       另一方面,商业交易者们,错过了大部分的趋势利润除了多数准确抓住价格的反转

       所以,除非出现一个极端情绪的迹象,不然跟随大型投机者们的步伐,是最好的选择。

       基本的规则是这样:每个市场的顶部或底部,都是伴随着极端情绪下形成的。但不是每个极端情绪的出现后,市场都会形成顶部或底部。