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Market Sentiment 市场情绪: Page 4 of 9

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Understanding the COT Report

In order to understand the futures market, first you need to know the people making the shots and those who are warming up the bench. These players could be categorized into three basic groups:

  1. Commercial traders (Hedgers)
  2. Non-commercial traders (Large Speculators)
  3. Retail traders (Small Speculators)

Don’t Skip the Commercial – The Hedgers

Hedgers or commercial traders are those who want to protect themselves against unexpected price movements. Agricultural producers or farmers who want to hedge (minimize) their risk in changing commodity prices are part of this group.

Banks or corporations who are looking to protect themselves against sudden price changes in currencies or other assets are also considered commercial traders.

A key characteristic of hedgers is that they are most bullish at market bottoms and most bearish at market tops.

What the hedgehog does this mean?

COT Report: Hedger or Commercial Trader

Here’s a real life example to illustrate:

There is a virus outbreak in the U.S. that turns people into zombies. Zombies run amok doing malicious things like grabbing strangers’ iPhones to download fart apps.

It’s total mayhem as people become disoriented and helpless without their beloved iPhones. This must be stopped now before the nation crumbles into oblivion!

Guns and bullets apparently don’t work on the zombies. The only way to exterminate them is by chopping their heads off.

Apple sees a “market need” and decides to build a private Samurai army to protect vulnerable iPhone users.

It needs to import samurai swords from Japan. Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, contacts a Japanese samurai swordsmith who demands to be paid in Japanese yen when he finishes the swords after three months.

Apple also knows that, if the USD/JPY falls, it will end up paying more yen for the swords.

In order to protect itself, or rather, hedge against currency risk, the firm buys JPY futures.

If USD/JPY falls after three months, the firm’s gain on the futures contract would offset the increased cost on its transaction with the Japanese sword smith.

On the other hand, if USD/JPY rises after three months, the firm’s loss on the futures contract would be offset by the decrease in cost of its payment for the samurai swords.

In It to Win It – The Large Speculators

In contrast to hedgers, who are not interested in making profits from trading activities, speculators are in it for the money and have no interest in owning the underlying asset!

Many speculators are known as hardcore trend followers since they buy when the market is on an uptrend and sell when the market is on a downtrend. They keep adding to their position until the price movement reverses.

Large speculators are also big players in the futures market since they hold huge accounts.

As a result, their trading activities can cause the market to move dramatically. They usually follow moving averages and hold their positions until the trend changes.

Cannon fodders – The Small Speculators

Small speculators, on the other hand, own smaller retail accounts. These comprise of hedge funds and individual traders.

They are known to be anti-trend and are usually on the wrong side of the market. Because of that, they are typically less successful than hedgers and commercial traders.

However, when they do follow the trend, they tend to be highly concentrated at market tops or bottoms.

理解这三个组的分别

       为了明白期货市场,首先你需要认识那些负责投篮的人和那些负责坐热板凳的人。
这些玩家基本可以分为三个组别:

     1. 商业交易者们(对冲机构们)
     2. 非商业交易商们(大型投机商们)
     3. 零售交易商们(小型投机商们)

不要忽略了商业贸易 - 对冲机构们

       对冲机构或商业交易者,是那些想要保护自身的产品,免受价格的波动伤害的人。例如农业生产者和农民,想要通过期货来对冲(风险最小化)掉,农产品在未来不断变化的商品价格,所以他们也是这组的成员之一。

       那些银行或企业们,为了防范本身的生意,因为货币的汇率,或商品的价格,突然出现变化的影响,他们也被视为商业交易者。

       对冲机构们的一个主要特点是,在市场底部时多数看涨 和 在市场顶部时多数看跌。

       这些经验老道的刺猬们,为什么会这样看?

       下面是一个活生生的说明例子:
              米国的病毒突然爆发,把人都变成了僵尸。僵尸们四处横行作恶,它们乱抢陌生人的iPhone,来下载垃圾程序。

       这使得人们开始出现混乱,因为失去了他们心爱的iPhone,导致晕头转向和茫然不知所措。这情况必须在国家被击垮崩溃之前,立即采取措施制止!

       枪支和炮弹,明显对僵尸不起作用。唯一消灭他们的方法,只有砍掉他们的脑袋,才能消灭他们。

       苹果公司看到了“市场的需求”,并决定要打造一支个私人的武士军队,来保护脆弱的iPhone用户。

       这需要从日本进口武士刀。Steve Jobs联络到售卖日本武士刀的铸剑师,他们要求在完成宝刀的三个月后,用日元付款。

       苹果公司也知道,如果美元/日元在三个月后下跌,他们的宝刀最终将支付更多的日元。

       苹果公司为了保护自己,或者说,为了对冲掉货币的风险,公司决定买进日元期货。

       如果美元/日元在三个月后下跌,那么公司在期货的合同就会盈利,这将抵消掉日本铸剑师订单成本上升的亏损。

       另一种情况,如果美元/日元在三个月后上涨,虽然公司的期货合约会亏损,但因为支付武士刀的成本同样下降了,所以也抵消掉了。

为了赢钱而来的 - 大型投机商

       与套期保值的对冲机构不同,因为大型投机商对期货的实货买卖,毫不感兴趣。他们进入市场,为的是赚进绿油油的钞票,而不是对拥有那些绿油油的野菜感兴趣。

       许多大型投机商被认为是趋势交易的中坚分子,因为在市场处于牛市时,他们就买进;而当市场处于熊市时,他们就卖出。他们不断的增加仓位,直到价格的趋势反转。

       大型投机商,同时也是期货市场上的大牌球员,因为他们拥有庞大的帐户。
因此,他们的交易活动,也会导致市场的大幅移动。他们一般都按照移动平均线交易,和持有他们的仓位,直到趋势改变。

市场的炮灰  - 小型投机者

       小型投机者,另一种说法,也叫做散户。这里包括了对冲基金和个人交易者。

       他们是众所周知的逆势交易者,通常站在市场错误的一边。正因为如此,比起对冲机构们和商业贸易的交易者们,小型投机者们通常很少可以取得成功的。

       可是,当他们都顺应趋势时,他们往往是被高度集中在,市场的顶部或底部。