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Market Sentiment 市场情绪

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Forex Market Sentiment

How’s Mr. Market Feeling?

Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market.

“It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!”

“Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.”

Forex Market Sentiment - Bullish or Bearish

Each and every trader will have their own personal explanation as to why the market is moving a certain way.

When trading, traders express this view in whatever trade he takes. But sometimes, no matter how convinced a trader is that the markets will move in a particular direction, and no matter how pretty all the trend lines line up, the trader may still end up losing.

A forex trader must realize that the overall market is a combination of all the views, ideas and opinions of all the participants in the market. That’s right… EVERYONE.

This combined feeling that market participants have is what we call market sentiment.

It is the dominating emotion or idea that the majority of the market feels best explains the current direction of the market.

How to Develop a Market Sentiment-Based Approach

As a forex trader, it is your job to gauge what the market is feeling. Are the indicators pointing towards bullish conditions? Are traders bearish on the economy? We can’t tell the market what we think it should do. But what we can do is react in response to what is happening in the markets.

Note that using the market sentiment approach doesn’t give a precise entry and exit for each trade. But don’t despair! Having a sentiment-based approach can help you decide whether you should go with the flow or not. Of course, you can always combine market sentiment analysis with technical and fundamental analysis to come up with better trade ideas.

In stocks and options, traders can look at volume traded as an indicator of sentiment. If a stock price has been rising, but volume is declining, it may signal that the market is overbought. Or if a declining stock suddenly reversed on high volume, it means the market sentiment may have changed from bearish to bullish.

Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured.

Forex Market Sentiment Is Difficult to Measure

GASP!

OH NOOOO!!!!

Without any tools to measure volume, how can a forex trader measure market sentiment?!

This is where the Commitment of Traders report comes in!

什么是市场情绪

市场先生感觉如何?

每一名交易者对市场都会有他们自己的看法。

“市场处于熊市,市场都太糟了!”

“看上去一切都很明朗,现在市场正处于牛市中。”

每一名交易者都会以他们从他们自己的角度来解释,为什么市场正以某一特定方式运行。

当进行交易时,交易者都会对他们进行的交易发表他们各自的观点。但是有些时候,无论交易者是多么的确信市场,市场将会沿着某一特定方向运行,他们的交易都有可能最终以失败而告终。

交易者必须认识到,整体市场是所有市场参与人士观点的综合展现。是的,所有市场参与者。

这种所有市场参与者共同表现出来的感觉,即我们所说的市场情绪。

也正是市场上大多数参与者的主流观点决定了当前市场的总体方向。

如何进行市场情绪分析

作为一名交易者,对市场情绪的分析可是你交易工作中不可或缺的一环。经济指标显示市场将会上涨吗?交易者们对经济的看法悲观吗?我们不能告诉市场,应该以我们认为的形势发展。我们所能做的是,对市场上正在发生的事情做出反应。

需要注意的是,利用市场情绪分析方法并不会给我们提供每次交易的确切入场和出场点位。但是,不要因此而绝望!利用市场情绪分析法能够帮助你决定,你是否应该随着市场主流而动。当然,你也可以始终将市场情绪分析和技术以及基本面分析方法结合起来,以做出更好的交易决策。

在股票市场和期货市场中,交易者们能够观察交易量,作为衡量股票和期货市场情绪的指标。如果某一股票价格持续上升,但是成交量却在下降,这可能显示出市场正处于超买状态。或者是,某一持续下跌的股票交成交量突然大幅上升,这可能表明市场情绪正由看空转而看多。

不幸的是,由于外汇市场是场外交易,或者说外汇市场并不存在一个集合交易的场所。这意味着每一次的货币交易量,我们都难以轻易获得。

糟糕,哦不!

没有任何工具来测算外汇外汇市场交易量,交易者该如何来衡量市场情绪呢?

这也是交易者持仓报告应运而生的原因之所在!

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