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Market Environment 市场环境: Page 5 of 6

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How to Identify Reversals

Properly distinguishing between retracements and reversals can reduce the number of losing trades and even set you up with some winning trades.

Classifying a price movement as a retracement or a reversal is very important. It’s up there with paying taxes *cough*.

There are several key differences in distinguishing a temporary price change retracement from a long-term trend reversal. Here they are:

Retracements Reversals
Usually occurs after huge price movements. Can occur at anytime.
Short-term, short-lived reversal. Long-term price movement
Fundamentals (i.e., the macroeconomic environment) don’t change. Fundamentals DO change, which is usually the catalyst for the long-term reversal.
In an uptrend, buying interest is present, making it likely for price to rally. In a downtrend, selling interest is present, making it likely for price to decline. In an uptrend, there is very little buying interest forcing the price to fall lower. In a downtrend, there is very little selling interest forcing the price to rise further.

Identifying Retracements

A popular way to identify retracements is to use Fibonacci levels.

For the most part, price retracements hang around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels before continuing the overall trend.

If price goes beyond these levels, it may signal that a reversal is happening. Notice how we didn’t say will. As you may have figured out by now, technical analysis isn’t an exact science, which means nothing certain… especially in forex markets.

 

Retracements

In this case, price took a breather and rested at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before resuming the uptrend. After a while, it pulled back again and settled at the 50% retracement level before heading higher.

Another way to see if price is staging a reversal is to use pivot points.

In an uptrend, traders will look at the lower support points (S1, S2, S3) and wait for it to break. In a downtrend, forex traders will look at the higher resistance points (R1, R2, R3) and wait for it to break.

If broken, a reversal could be in the making! For more information or another refresher, check out the Pivot Points Lesson!

 

Reversals and Pivot Points

The last method is to use trend lines. When a major trend line is broken, a reversal may be in effect.

By using this technical tool in conjunction with candlestick chart patterns discussed earlier, a forex trader may be able to get a high probability of a reversal.

 

Breakout Triggers a Reversal

While these methods can identify reversals, they aren’t the only way. At the end of the day, nothing can substitute for practice and experience.

With enough screen time, you can find a method that suits your forex trading personality in identifying retracements and reversals.

反转的识别

       对回撤和反转进行恰当的区分能够降低我们的交易损失,甚至可以扩大我们的交易胜算率。

       区分价格走势是回撤或是反转非常重要。

       价格的短暂回撤和长期趋势反转之间有一些非常关键的区别,以下便是:

回撤的鉴别

       鉴别回撤的最常见方法就是使用斐波那契工具。

       在大多数情况下,价格在延续总体趋势之前,其回撤过程通常会在前期趋势的38.2%、50.5%、61.8%斐波那契回撤位水平附近遇到阻碍。

       如果价格穿越上述水平位,则很可能预示着反转形态的发生。注意了,我们在这里并没有用“将要”。你现在应该知道我们在这里要强调的重点了,是的,技术分析并非是精确的科学计算,这意味着什么都没有绝对的事情,尤其在外汇市场中。

       鉴别价格是否出现反转的另一方法是使用枢纽点。

       在上升趋势中,交易者将观察枢纽点支撑位(S1、S2、S3)并等待价格跌破上述价位。在下跌趋势中,交易者会观察枢纽点阻力位(R1、R2、R3)并等待价格突破上述价位。

       如果价格跌破支撑位或突破阻力位,则意味着反转可能发生。如果你想要了解或是温习一下有关枢纽点的内容,请回到我们之前所讲授过的有关枢纽点课程。

       最后一种方法是使用趋势线。当某一主要趋势线被突破时,则反转有可能出现。

       将这一技术工具和我们之前讲过的蜡烛形态结合起来运用,交易者能够获得识别反转形态的高胜算。

       尽管上述方法能够帮助我们鉴别反转形态,但掌握了这些技巧就断言能够有效的识别反转还为时过早,因为无论什么方法,都无法取代耐心和经验。

       随着时间的积累,你将能够找到一种合适你自己的个人交易方法,来准确识别价格的反转以及回撤。