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Harmonic Price Patterns 谐波价格形态: Page 3 of 5

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Trading The Gartley Pattern

Once upon a time, there was this insanely smart trader dude named Harold McKinley Gartley.

He had a stock market advisory service in the mid-1930s with a huge following. This service was one of the first to apply scientific and statistical methods to analyze the stock market behavior.

According to Gartley, he was finally able to solve two of the biggest problems of traders: what and when to buy.

Soon enough, traders realized that these patterns could also be applied to other markets. Since then, various books, trading software, and other patterns (discussed below) have been made based on the Gartleys.

Gartley a.k.a. “222” Pattern

The Gartley “222” pattern is named for the page number it is found on in H.M. Gartleys book, Profits in the Stock Market. Gartleys are patterns that include the basic ABCD pattern we’ve already talked about, but are preceded by a significant high or low.

Now, these patterns normally form when a correction of the overall trend is taking place and look like ‘M’ (or ‘W’ for bearish patterns). These patterns are used to help traders find good entry points to jump in on the overall trend.

Bearish Gartley PatternBullish Gartley Pattern

A Gartley forms when the price action has been going on a recent uptrend (or downtrend) but has started to show signs of a correction.

What makes the Gartley such a nice setup when it forms is the reversal points are a Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension level. This gives a stronger indication that the pair may actually reverse.

This pattern can be hard to spot and once you do, it can get confusing when you pop up all those Fibonacci tools. The key to avoiding all the confusion is to take things one step at a time.

In any case, the pattern contains a bullish or bearish ABCD pattern, but is preceded by a point (X) that is beyond point D. The “perfect” Gartley pattern has the following characteristics:

  1. Move AB should be the .618 retracement of move XA.
  2. Move BC should be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
  3. If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.272 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 1.618 of move BC.
  4. Move CD should be .786 retracement of move XA

Gartley Mutants: The Animals

As time went by, the popularity of the Gartley pattern grew and people eventually came up with their own variations.

For some odd reason, the discoverers of these variations decided to name them after animals (Maybe they were part of PETA?).Without further ado, here comes the animal pack…

The Crab

Gartley Variation: Bearish CrabGartley Variation: Bullish Crab

In 2000, Scott Carney, a firm believer in harmonic price patterns, discovered the “Crab”.

According to him, this is the most accurate among all the harmonic patterns because of how extreme the Potential Reversal Zone (sometimes called “price better reverse or imma gonna lose my shirt” point) from move XA.

This pattern has a high reward-to-risk ratio because you can put a very tight stop loss. The “perfect” crab pattern must have the following aspects:

  1. Move AB should be the .382 or .618 retracement of move XA.
  2. Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
  3. If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 2.24 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should be 3.618 extension of move BC.
  4. CD should be 1.618 extension of move XA.

The Bat

Gartley Variation: Bearish BatGartley Variation: Bullish Bat

Come 2001, Scott Carney founded another Harmonic Price Pattern called the “Bat.” The Bat is defined by the .886 retracement of move XA as Potential Reversal Zone. The Bat pattern has the following qualities:

  1. Move AB should be the .382 or .500 retracement of move XA.
  2. Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
  3. If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.618 extension of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should be 2.618 extension of move BC.
  4. CD should be .886 retracement of move XA.

The Butterfly

Gartley Variation: Bearish ButterflyGartley Variation: Bullish Butterfly

Then, there is the Butterfly pattern. Like Muhammad Ali, if you spot this setup, you’ll surely be swinging for some knockout-sized pips!

Created by Bryce Gilmore, the perfect Butterfly pattern is defined by the .786 retracement of move AB with respect to move XA. The Butterfly contains these specific characteristics:

  1. Move AB should be the .786 retracement of move XA.
  2. Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
  3. If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.618 extension of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 2.618 of move BC.
  4. CD should be 1.27 or 1.618 extension of move XA.

伽利形态和动物形态

       从前,有一位超级精明的交易者,他的名字叫哈罗德·麦金利·伽利(Harold McKinley Gartley)。

       在上个世纪30年代中期,伽利开了一家股票咨询服务公司,该公司跟随者甚众。伽利所开的咨询服务公司是最早将科学和统计方法用于分析股票市场的机构之一。

       在伽利看来,他最终能够解决交易者最为关心的两大问题:应该买入什么以及什么时候买入。

       没过多久,交易者们认识到,这些形态也可以运用到其他市场中。随后,众多的书籍、交易软件以及其他的技术形态(如以下所讨论到的),都基于伽利研究而衍生出来。

伽利“222”形态

       该形态是由伽利首先在1935年提出的。在他的著作《股市中的利润》(Profits in the stock market)的第222页介绍了这个形态,所以又被称作伽利222形态(Gartley 222 Pattern)。

       伽利形态包含了我们之前已经讲过的ABCD形态,但是多了一个明显的高点或低点。

       当总体趋势出现回调,走势就像“M”形或“W”形时,通常形成伽利形态。这些形态用于帮助交易者在总体趋势中找到良好的入场点位。


       当价格一直延续近期上升(或下降)趋势,但已经开始显现出回调迹象时,伽利形态便可能形成。

       伽利形态难以描绘出来,当你借助斐波那契工具尝试描绘伽利形态时,你可能陷入迷惑状态。而避免陷入这种迷惑状态的关键在于,严格按照步骤一步一步的来。

       无论怎样,伽利形态都包含看涨或看跌ABCD形态,但在ABCD形态之外多出了X点。

       对于伽利形态来说,最重要的特征就是,X、A、B、C、D之间的特殊位置关系。XA腿是伽利形态中最大的价格运动趋势。

       完美伽利形态具有如下特点:

           1、B点的位置应该达到XA运动区间的61.8%斐波那契回撤位;

           2、BC的回撤位置要么是AB运动区间的38.2%,要么是88.6%的斐波那契回撤位;

           3、如果BC的回撤位置是AB运动区间的38.2%回撤位,那么CD位置应该是BC运动区间的127.2%回撤位,
                如果BC回撤位是AB运动区间的88.6%回撤位,那么CD应该是BC运动区间的161.8%回撤位;

           4、CD的运动目标应该是XA运动区间的78.6%斐波那契回撤位。

动物形态

       随着时间的推移,伽利形态受到越来越多人的欢迎,人们最终在伽利形态的基础上,总结出了更多的变体形态。

       出于一些古怪的原因,这些变体形态的发现者将这些形态以动物的名字命名,可能是这些形态和相关的动物有些类似吧。以下就是相关的动物形态:

螃蟹形态

       在2000年,斯科特·卡尼(Scott Carney),一名谐波价格形态的坚定拥护者,发现了“螃蟹形态”。

       在他看来,在所有的谐波形态中,螃蟹形态是最为精确的,因为该形态能够测量出潜在的反转区域水平位,而通常反转目标为XA的161.8%延伸位。

       该形态拥有较高的风险回报比,因为你能够设置非常紧的止损。“完美”的螃蟹形态必须具有以下特征:

             1、AB必须达到XA的38.2%或61.8%斐波那契回撤水平;

             2、BC运动目标要么是AB的38.2%,要么是88.6%的斐波那契回撤位;

             3、如果BC达到AB的38.2%回撤水平,那么CD运动目标应该是BC的224.0%延伸位。
                  相应的,如果BC达到AB的88.6%回撤水平,那么CD运动目标应该是BC的361.8%延伸位;

             4、CD应该是XA的161.8%延伸位。

蝙蝠形态

       到了2001年,卡尼发现了另一种谐波形态,他称为“蝙蝠形态”。在蝙蝠形态中,潜在的反转区间为XA的88.6%斐波那契回撤水平。蝙蝠形态具有以下特征:

             1、AB运行目标应该是XA的38.2%或50.0%回撤位;

             2、BC运行目标是AB的38.2%或88.6%回撤位;

             3、如果BC运行目标是AB的38.2%回撤位,那么CD运行目标应该是BC的161.8%延伸位。
                 相应的,如果BC运行目标是AB的88.6%回撤位,那么CD运行目标应该是BC的261.8%延伸位;

             4、CD运行目标应该是XA的88.6%回撤水平。

蝴蝶形态

       最后,我们来了解一下蝴蝶形态。蝴蝶形态的创始人是布莱斯·吉尔默(Bryce Gilmore)。在完美的蝴蝶形态中,AB的回撤目标为XA的78.6%。蝴蝶形态具有以下特征:

             1、AB的回撤目标应该是XA的78.6%;

             2、BC的运行目标是AB的38.2%或88.6%;

             3、如果BC的回撤目标是AB的38.2%,那么CD的运行目标应该是BC的161.8%延伸位。
                  相应的,如果BC的回撤目标是AB的88.6%,那么CD的运行目标应该是BC的261.8%;

             4、CD的目标应该是XA的127.0%或161.8%延伸位。