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Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析: Page 5 of 7

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Fundamental Factors That Affect Currency Values

There are several fundamental factors that help shape the long term strength or weakness of the major currencies and will affect you as a forex trader. We’ve included what we think are the most important for your reading pleasure:

Economic Growth and Outlook

We start easy with the economy and outlook held by consumers, businesses and the governments. It’s easy to understand that when consumers perceive a strong economy, they feel happy and safe, and they spend money. Companies willingly take this money and say, “Hey, we’re making money! Wonderful! Now… uh, what do we do with all this money?”

Companies with money spend money. And all this creates some healthy tax revenue for the government. They jump on board and also start spending money. Now everybody is spending, and this tends to have a positive effect on the economy.

Weak economies, on the other hand, are usually accompanied by consumers who aren’t spending, businesses who aren’t making any money and aren’t spending, so the government is the only one still spending. But you get the idea. Both positive and negative economic outlooks can have a direct effect on the currency markets.

Capital Flows

Globalization, technology advances and the internet have all contributed to the ease of investing your money virtually anywhere in the world, regardless of where you call home. You’re only a few clicks of the mouse away (or a phone call for you folks living in the Jurassic era of the 2000’s) from investing in the New York or London Stock exchange, trading the Nikkei or Hang Seng index, or from opening a forex account to trade U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and even exotic currencies.

Capital flows measure the amount of money flowing into and out of a country or economy because of capital investment purchasing and selling. The important thing you want to keep track of is capital flow balance, which can be positive or negative.

When a country has a positive capital flow balance, foreign investments coming into the country are greater than investments heading out of the country. A negative capital flow balance is the direct opposite. Investments leaving the country for some foreign destination are greater than investments coming in.

With more investment coming into a country, demand increases for that country’s currency as foreign investors have to sell their currency in order to buy the local currency. This demand causes the currency to increase in value.

Simple supply and demand.

And you guessed it, if supply is high for a currency (or demand is weak), the currency tends to lose value. When foreign investments make an about-face, and domestic investors also wants to switch teams and leave, and then you have an abundance of the local currency as everybody is selling and buying the currency of whatever foreign country or economy they’re investing in.

Foreign capital love nothing more than a country with high interest rates and strong economic growth. If a country also has a growing domestic financial market, even better! A booming stock market, high interest rates… What’s not to love?! Foreign investment comes streaming in. And again, as demand for the local currency increases, so does its value.

Trade Flows & Trade Balance

We’re living in a global marketplace. Countries sell their own goods to countries that want them (exporting), while at the same time buying goods they want from other countries (importing). Have a look around your house. Most of the stuff (electronics, clothing, doggie toys) lying around are probably made outside of the country you live in.

Every time you buy something, you have to give up some of your hard-earned cash.

Whoever you buy your widget from has to do the same thing.

U.S. importers exchange money with Chinese exporters when they buy goods. And Chinese imports exchange money with European exporters when they buy goods.

All this buying and selling is accompanied by the exchange of money, which in turn changes the flow of currency into and out of a country.

 

Fundamental Factors That Affect Currency Values
Trade balance (or balance of trade or net exports) measures the ratio of exports to imports for a given economy. It demonstrates the demand of that country’s good and services, and ultimately it’s currency as well. If exports are higher than imports, a trade surplus exists and the trade balance is positive. If imports are higher than exports, a trade deficit exists, and the trade balance is negative.

 

So:

Exports > Imports = Trade Surplus = Positive (+) Trade Balance

Imports > Exports = Trade Deficit = Negative (-) Trade Balance

Trade deficits have the prospect of pushing a currency price down compared to other currencies. Net importers first have to sell their currency in order to buy the currency of the foreign merchant who’s selling the goods they want. When there’s a trade deficit, the local currency is being sold to buy foreign goods. Because of that, the currency of a country with a trade deficit is less in demand compared to the currency of a country with a trade surplus.

Net exporters, countries that export more than they import, see their currency being bought more by countries interested in buying the exported goods. It is in more demand, helping their currency to gain value. It’s all due to the demand of the currency. Currencies in higher demand tend to be valued higher than those in less demand.

It’s similar to pop stars. Because she’s more in demand, Taylor Swift gets paid more than Pink. Same thing with Justin Bieber versus Vanilla Ice.

The Government: Present and Future

The years 2009 and 2010 have definitely been the years where more eyes were glaringly watching their respective country’s governments, wondering about the financial difficulties being faced, and hoping for some sort of fiscal responsibility that would end the woes felt in our wallets. Instability in the current government or changes to the current administration can have a direct bearing on that country’s economy and even neighboring nations. And any impact to an economy will most likely affect exchange rates.

长期市场走势

       有一些基本面因素会决定货币对的长期走势轮廓。以下所列举的即是这些因素中的最主要因素:

经济增长及其前景

       我们先从经济以及消费者、企业以及政府所持的经济前景这一简单的因素开始讨论。很容易理解,当消费者预计经济将表现强劲时,他们会感到高兴,生活也会有安全感。公司更愿意花钱,并说道,“我们盈利不错,非常棒!我们该怎么利用这些资金呢?”

       有钱的公司会选择花钱。而且,企业良好的盈利状况也会增加政府的税收收入。企业有钱了,作为雇员的广大消费者也自然钱包鼓鼓。企业、政府和个人都愿意扩大支出,这将对经济形成积极影响。

       另一方面来说,经济表现疲软,所伴随的则是消费者不愿消费、企业赚不到钱且不愿投资,在这一情况下,政府成为唯一还在花钱的一方。你现在应该清楚了,正面的和负面的经济前景都会对货币市场造成直接影响。

资本流动

       全球化、技术的进步、互联网的兴起令资本在全球范围内的流动成为现实。你只需要轻点鼠标,便可选择投资纽约或伦敦股票市场,或者是在开设一个外汇交易账户交易美元、欧元、日元以及其他货币。

       大笔资金在国与国之间流动以寻求较高的回报率和较好的投资机会。保持资本流动的平衡很重要,对一国来说,资本可以是净流入,也可以是净流出。

       一国资本净流入时,海外投资者投资该国的规模要大于从该国抽走的资金规模。而一国资本净流出情况则正好相反。

       随着更多的投资涌入该国,对该国货币的需求随之会上升,海外投资者会卖出他们所持有的货币并兑换成投资国当地货币。这种需求会促使该国货币升值。

       如果某一货币的供给较强,而需求较弱,该货币则倾向于贬值。当海外投资者和国内投资者都打算将资本从该国抽走时,如果你手头持有大量的该国货币,那你得警惕了,你最好考虑是否需要买入海外和国内投资者正在大举投资的国家或经济体货币,因为,几乎所有的人都在这么做。

       国外资本钟爱投资具有高利率且经济增长强劲的国家。如果一国国内金融市场也在蓬勃发展,那更好。股市的欣欣向荣、较高的利率,这对国际资本来说是再好不过的事了。这些因素会推动国际资本的涌入,进而导致该国货币需求的增强,结果便是该国货币的升值。

贸易流动&贸易平衡

       我们所处的市场是一个全球性的市场。一国会出售该国的商品给需要这些商品的国家(出口),与此同时,一国也会从其他国家买进他们所需要的商品(进口)。看看我们的屋内物品就知道了,可能绝大多数日用品,诸如家用电器、衣物、玩具等都是从国外进口的。

       你每次购买某一物品,你都需要让渡你辛苦赚来的钞票。

       当美国进口商从中国出口商那里购买商品时,他们会将美元兑换成人民币,而当中国出口商从欧洲出口商那里购买商品时,他们会将人民币兑换成欧元。

       所有这些买入和卖出活动都伴随着货币的交易,进而对流入或流出一国的货币量造成影响。

      

       贸易平衡或净出口衡量的是某一特定经济体出口和进口之间的比例关系。它向我们展示了该国商品和服务的需求情况,最终也显示出了该国货币的需求情况。如果出口大于进口,则该国存在贸易顺差,净出口为正。如果进口大于出口,则该国存在贸易逆差,净出口为负。

       我们将这种关系用公式直观的表现为:

              出口>进口= 贸易盈余= 净出口为正
              进口>出口= 贸易赤字= 净出口为负

       贸易赤字可能会导致一国货币相比于其他货币走低。净进口国需要将该国货币兑换成国外货币以购买当地商品。当存在贸易赤字时,当地货币会被持续卖出以购买外国产品。有鉴于此,贸易赤字国货币需求较贸易盈余国货币需求相比要低。

       与之相对的是,贸易盈余国货币需求更旺盛,这会促使该国货币升值。货币的币值强弱在很大一定程度上受到外界对该国货币的需求影响。拥有高需求货币较需求较低货币的币值要高。

       我们拿流行明星来做个比方,这会加深你的理解。由于Lady Gaga的市场需求比小甜甜布莱尼的更高,所以她获得的演出费比布莱尼的要更高。

现任和未来政府

       自2009年以来,市场更多的焦点转向了一些国家的政府,尤其是欧元区国家的政府。自欧债危机爆发以来,越来越多的欧元区国家陷入债务泥潭不能自拔,投资者希望,当局会采取负责任的财政措施来缓解市场的担忧。而各国政局的不稳却加速了危机的蔓延。

       现任政府的不稳定,或一国元首的更替,都有可能对该国经济直接造成不利影响,甚至其邻国也难以幸免。政局的不稳对经济所造成的冲击很有可能也波及该国货币汇率。