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Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析: Page 4 of 7

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Hawkish and Dovish Central Banks

We just learned that currency prices are affected a great deal by changes in a country’s interest rates.

We now know that interest rates are ultimately affected by a central bank’s view on the economy and price stability, which influence monetary policy.

Central banks operate like most other businesses in that they have a leader, a president or a chairman. It’s that individual’s role to be the voice of that central bank, conveying to the market which direction monetary policy is headed. And much like when Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg steps to the microphone, everyone listens.

So by using the Pythagorean Theorem (where a² + b² = c²), wouldn’t it make sense to keep an eye on what those guys at the central banks are saying?

Using the Complex conjugate root theorem, the answer is yes!

Yes, it’s important to know what’s coming down the road regarding potential monetary policy changes. And lucky for you, central banks are getting better at communicating with the market.

Whether you actually understand what they’re saying, well that’s a different story.

So, the next time Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi are giving speeches, keep your ears open. Better yet, use the trusty BabyPips.com Economic Calendar to prepare yourself before the actual speech.

 

Hawkish or Dovish Central Bank
While the central bank chairman isn’t the only one making monetary policy decisions for a country or economy, what he or she has to say is only not ignored, but revered like the gospel.

 

Okay, maybe that was a bit dramatic, but you get the point.

Not all central bank officials carry the same weight.

Central bank speeches have a way of inciting a market response, so watch for quick movement following an announcement.

Speeches can include anything from changes (increases, decreases or holds) to current interest rates, to discussions about economic growth measurements and outlook, to monetary policy announcements outlining current and future changes.

But don’t despair if you can’t tune in to the live event. As soon as the speech or announcement hits the airwaves, news agencies from all over make the information available to the public.

Forex analysts and traders alike take the news and try to dissect the overall tone and language of the announcement, taking special care to do this when interest rate changes or economic growth information are involved.

Much like how the market reacts to the release of other economic reports or indicators, forex traders react more to central bank activity and interest rate changes when they don’t fall in line with current market expectation.

It’s getting easier to foresee how a monetary policy will develop over time, due to an increasing transparency by central banks.

Yet there’s always a possibility that central bankers will change their outlook in greater or lesser magnitude than expected. It’s during these times that marketing volatility is high and care should be taken with existing and new trade positions.

Hawkish vs. Dovish Central Banks

Yes, you’re in the right place.

Tonight’s match puts the L.A. Hawks up against the N.Y. Doves.

You’re in for a treat. Wait, what?!

Whoops sorry, wrong subject.

We really just meant hawks versus doves, central bank hawks versus central bank doves that is. Central bankers can be viewed as either hawkish or dovish, depending on how they approach certain economic situations.

Central bankers are described as “hawkish” when they are in support of the raising of interest rates to fight inflation, even to the detriment of economic growth and employment.

For example, “The Bank of England suggests the existence of a threat of high inflation.” The Bank of England could be described as being hawkish if they made an official statement leaning towards the increasing of interest rates to reduce high inflation.

Dovish central bankers, on the other hand, generally favor economic growth and employment over tightening interest rates. They also tend to have a more non-aggressive stance or viewpoint regarding a specific economic event or action.

 

Hawkish vs. Dovish Central Banks
And the winner is…. It’s a tie!

 

Well, sort of.

You’ll find many a banker “on the fence”, exhibiting both hawkish and dovish tendencies. However, true colors tend to shine when extreme market conditions occur.

央行及其政策立场

       我们已经知道,货币价格会受到一国利率变动的影响。

       我们也知道,利率最终受到央行对一国经济和价格稳定性观点的影响,这会影响到央行的货币政策。

       中央银行和其他的机构一样,也有一名领导人,我们称为央行行长或主席。投资者一般会对包括央行行长或主席在内重要官员的讲话高度关注,因为他们的讲话通常会透露出央行货币政策未来的方向。

       获悉央行货币政策可能出现的转变对外汇投资者来说非常重要。幸运的是,央行在其货币政策转变之前,会和市场做很好的沟通。

       关键在于,你是否理解央行对外所透露的信息,这可不是那么简单的事情。

       所以说,下次等到美联储主席伯南克或欧洲央行行长德拉基发表演讲时,请认真聆听。在正式讲话之前,最要是先在专业外汇网站的财经日历上查看,这些重要央行官员发表讲话的具体或大致时间。


       尽管央行行长不是制订一国或某一经济体货币政策的唯一人员,但央行行长的讲话我们绝对不能忽视。

       听起来似乎有点有点夸张,但是,你应该了解了其中的重点。

       并不是所有的央行官员和央行行长具有同等的地位。

       央行官员的讲话会对市场造成较大影响,所以在某一央行官员发表讲话或声明后,请仔细观察一下外汇市场的明显波动情况。

       他们的讲话可能会涉及到货币政策的方方面面,比如说加息、降息或维持利率不变、降低或上调经济增长预估等。

       但是,如果你不能听到他们的实时讲话,你也不要气馁。在他们发表讲话或声明的同时,主要媒体都会做同步直播,而专业的外汇网站也会做文字同步直播。

       货币分析师和专业的外汇交易者会对讲话内容保持高度关注,他们会仔细分析讲话或声明的措辞以及语言表达,当讲话内容涉及到利率、当前政策立场改变等方面时,他们会尤其警惕。

       和市场会对经济报告或经济指标的公布作出反应一样,货币交易者也会对央行活动以及货币政策的变动做出反应,尤其是当央行决定超出当前市场预期时,他们作出的反应会更大。

       随着央行决策对外透明度的不断增加,我们对央行货币政策在未来可能出现改变的预测也更为容易。

       尽管如此,仍然存在央行政策的转变程度会超出或低于市场预期的情况。也正是在这种情况下,市场波动会更高,交易者也应该对手头头寸的风险控制保持更高的警惕。

鸽派和鹰派

       在货币政策立场方面,央行官员可以分为鸽派和鹰派两大类,这主要取决于它们对当前经济形势的判断。

       当央行官员支持采取加息以对抗通胀时,我们称它们为鹰派官员,尽管这样做会对经济增长和就业造成不利影响。

       比如说,英国央行暗示通胀正对经济造成威胁。如果英国央行通过官方声明表达通过加息来抑制通胀的倾向,那么英国央行立场则表现为鹰派。

       另一方面,鸽派官员倾向于通过收紧利率来促进经济增长并提高就业人数。对于某一事件或行动,他们也会表现出非激进性立场。

       你也会发现,一些央行官员会保持观望态度,他们既会表现出鹰派的立场,也有可能展现出鸽派的倾向,不过,当极端的市况出现时,他们将表现出明显的鹰派或鸽派立场。