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Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析

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What is Fundamental Analysis?

Along your travels, you’ve undoubtedly come across Gulliver, Frodo, and the topic of fundamental analysis.

Wait a minute…

We’ve already given you a teaser about fundamental analysis during Kindergarten! Now let’s get to the nitty-gritty!

What is it exactly and will I need to use it? Well, fundamental analysis is the study of fundamentals! That was easy, wasn’t it? Ha! Gotcha!

There’s really more to it than that. Soooo much more.

Whenever you hear people mention fundamentals, they’re really talking about the economic fundamentals of a currency’s host country or economy.

Economic fundamentals cover a vast collection of information – whether in the form of economic, political or environmental reports, data, announcements or events.

Even a credit rating downgrade qualifies as fundamental data and you should see how Pipcrawler turned this news into a winning short EUR/USD trade.

Fundamental analysis is the use and study of these factors to forecast future price movements of currencies.

It is the study of what’s going on in the world and around us, economically and financially speaking, and it tends to focus on how macroeconomic elements (such as the growth of the economy, inflation, unemployment) affect whatever we’re trading.

Fundamental Data and Its Many Forms

In particular, fundamental analysis provides insight into how price action “should” or may react to a certain economic event.

Fundamental data takes shape in many different forms.

It can appear as a report released by the Fed on U.S. existing home sales. It can also exist in the possibility that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy.

The release of this data to the public often changes the economic landscape (or better yet, the economic mindset), creating a reaction from investors and speculators.

There are even instances when no specific report has been released, but the anticipation of such a report happening is another example of fundamentals.

Speculations of interest rate hikes can be “priced in” hours or even days before the actual interest rate statement.

In fact, currency pairs have been known to sometimes move 100 pips just moments before major economic news, making for a profitable time to trade for the brave.

That’s why many forex traders are often on their toes prior to certain economic releases and you should be too!

Generally, economic indicators make up a large portion of data used in fundamental analysis. Like a fire alarm sounding when it detects smoke or feels heat, economic indicators provide some insight into how well a country’s economy is doing.

While it’s important to know the numerical value of an indicator, equally as important is the market’s anticipation and prediction of that value.

Understanding the resulting impact of the actual figure in relation to the forecasted figure is the most important part. These factors all need consideration when deciding to trade.

Phew!

Don’t worry. It’s simpler than it sounds and you won’t need to know rocket science to figure it all out.

I suggest you visit Pip Diddy’s daily economic roundup every day so that you can stay in the loop with the upcoming economic releases.

Fundamental analysis is a valuable tool in estimating the future conditions of an economy, but not so much for predicting currency price direction.

This type of analysis has a lot of gray areas because fundamental information in the form of reports releases or monetary policy change announcements is vaguer than actual technical indicators.

Analysis of economic releases and reports of fundamental data usually go something like this:

“An interest rate increase of that percentage MAY cause the euro to go up.”

“The U.S. dollar SHOULD go down with an indicator value in that range.”

“Consumer confidence dipped 2% since the last report.”

Here’s an Economic Report, Now What?

The market has a tendency to react based on how people feel. These feelings can be based on their reaction to economic reports, based on their assessment of current market conditions.

And you guessed it – there are tons of people, all with different feelings and ideas.

You’re probably thinking “Geez, there’s a lot of uncertainty in fundamental analysis!”

You’re actually very right.

There’s no way of knowing 100% where a currency pair will go because of some new fundamental data.

That’s not saying that fundamental analysis should be dismissed.

Not at all.

Because of the sheer volume of fundamental data available, most people simply have a hard time putting it all together.

They understand a specific report, but can’t factor it into the broader economic picture. This simply takes time and a deeper understanding of the data.

Also, since most fundamental data are reported only for a single currency, fundamental data for the other currency in the pair would also be needed and would then have to be compared to get an accurate picture.

If you’re too busy to go through a bajillion news reports and economic data, don’t fret. Our resident economic guru, Forex Gump, got yo back covered! Make sure you read up on his regular economic analysis on his Piponomics blog.

As we mentioned from the get-go, it’s all about pairing a strong currency with a weak one.

At this point, you’re probably still waiting for the answer to “Will I ever need to use fundamental analysis to become a successful forex trader?”

We totally understand that there are purists on both sides.

Technical analysis seems to be the preferred methodology of short-term forex traders, with price action as their main focus.

Intermediate or medium traders and some long-term traders like to focus on fundamental analysis too because it helps with currency valuation.

 

Forex Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis
We like to be a little crazy by saying you should use BOTH!

 

Technically-focused strategies are blown to bits when a key fundamental event occurs. In the same respect, pure fundamental traders miss out on the short term opportunities that pattern formations and technical levels bring.

A mix of technical and fundamental analysis covers all angles. You’re aware of the scheduled economic releases and events, but you can also identify and use the various technical tools and patterns that market players focus on.

I have a couple of trade examples for you showing how the perfect blend of fundamental and technical analysis results in huge profits. Check out Cyclopip’s huge win on EUR/JPY and Happy Pip’s 115-pip profit on NZD/USD.

There’s your answer!

Happy?!

In this lesson, we’ll discuss the major fundamental factors that affect currencies. These are interest rates, monetary policies, and market-moving economic reports.

As I mentioned earlier, Pip Diddy’s daily economic roundup is a great source of economic updates. Combine that with Forex Gump’s in depth Piponomics articles and fundamental analysis will be a breeze!

什么是基本面分析

       在幼儿园课程中,我们已经对基本面分析进行了基本的介绍,现在,是时候对此进行深入学习了。

       基本面分析到底是什么,我们又应该如何利用它呢?简单来说,基本面分析就是对经济基本面的研究,很简单,是吧?

       当然,事实可远不是这么简单,对于基本面分析,我们需要了解更多。

       当我们听到有人谈到基本面时,他们实际上是在谈论某一货币所有国或经济体的经济基本面。

       经济基本面涉及众多的信息——不管是经济层面的、政治层面的或环境层面的报告、数据、声明或事件,均与经济基本面相关。

       甚至是一国主权评级遭下调也可以归入基本面分析中,比如说,欧元区国家主权信用评级的下调通常会导致欧元/美元的下跌。

       基本面分析就是对上述因素进行综合研究和分析,并预计货币对未来价格走势情况。

       从经济和金融角度来说,基本面分析主要集中于宏观经济组成部分,比如经济增长、通胀、失业率等对我们正在进行的交易的影响。

基本面数据及其众多形式

       特别来说,基本面分析给我们指明了价格对某一经济指标“应该”或可能的反应。

       我们可以从不同的经济指标中对基本面数据进行分析。

       基本面数据可以见于美联储公布的成屋销售数据中,也可见于欧洲央行可能改变其货币政策的可能性中。

       基本面数据向外部的公布通常会改变市场对经济局面的看法,投资者和投机者则会对数据做出相应反应。

       在利率决议公布之前,投资者对升息预期能够在数小时甚至数天之前就开始消化。

       实际上,在一些重大经济数据公布后,相关货币对短时间内的波动通常会超过100点,这对那些勇敢的交易者来说提供了很好的获利机会。

       这也是为什么一些交易者通常在一些重大宏观经济数据公布之前保持高度关注的原因,你也应该如此。

       一般来说,在基本面分析中,经济数据的分析占到基本面分析的相当大一部分。和火警警报在探测到烟雾或热量会发出响声一样,经济指标也为我们深入洞悉经济体状况提供了依据。

       尽管最终公布的指标数值相当重要,数据公布之前市场对相关数据的预测值也同样重要。

       了解最终数据公布后,市场在和预期数据比较之后所做出的反应是基本面分析中最重要的一环。当我们打算进行交易之前,这些因素都要考虑在内。

       是不是觉得有些高深?别担心,实际上它比听起来要简单得多。

       基本面分析为我们预测经济体未来经济状况提供了非常有价值的工具,但对于预测货币对未来走势还远远不够。

       基本面分析也存在诸多不足,因为基本面信息以报告的形式公布出来,或货币政策改变的声明公布对汇价的指引较实际的技术指标更为模糊。

       对经济数据的分析通常是这个样子:

       “欧洲央行降息可能导致欧元走低。”

       “某一经济指标维持在那一区域内,美元应该会走低。”

       “消费者信心自上次报告公布至今已下降2%。”

基本面分析还是技术面分析?

       基于人们的感觉,市场倾向于做出反应。人们的这些感觉可能是基于他们对经济报告的反应,或基于对当前市场状况的评估。

       你应该猜到了,这个世界上存在数以亿计的人口,他们都有不同的感觉和观点。

       你很可能在想,“天啦,基本面分析存在这么多的不确定性因素啊!”

       是的,你的想法实际上非常正确。

       我们不可能单凭基本面经济指标数据的好坏来百分百判断出汇价未来走势情况。

       这并不是说基本面分析应该摒弃。

       绝非如此。

       由于可供分析的基本面数据数量相当庞大,将所有这些数据综合起来分析对绝大多数人来说都是不可能的。

       他们可能对某一经济报告相当了解,但是单凭这一点他们仍不能完全获悉整体经济的全貌。

       同时,鉴于绝大多数基本面数据都只涉及到某一单一货币国家或经济体,而针对其他国家或经济体货币分析的数据也是需要的,只有这样,对货币对的分析才更加全面。

       正如我们之前所提到的,货币对分析就是对某一强劲货币和某一疲弱货币的综合分析。

       从这一点来说,你很可能会问“我需要进行基本面分析使自己成为成功的交易者吗?”

       我们完全知道,基本面分析的拥簇者和技术面分析的拥簇者在现实中都是切切实实存在的。

       技术面分析对短线投资者来说似乎更有用,因为价格波动是他们关注的焦点。

       中线或一些长线交易者也会对基本面分析进行关注,因为基本面分析能够提供货币币值的相关信息。

       现在,我们要疯狂一回,因为我们要告诉你,你应该兼顾使用基本面分析和技术面分析。

       当某一关键基本面事件发生时,技术分析策略可能派不上用场;而当某一价格形态短期内形成,或汇价触及某一关键价位时,纯基本面分析交易者可能会错过机会。

       基本面和技术面分析会将两者都兼顾起来。你可以保持对即将公布的经济数据或事件的关注,你同时也可以使用不同的技术分析工具指导你的交易。

       在本课中,我们将就影响货币对走势的主要基本面因素进行讨论。它们包括:利率、货币政策以及经济数据等。

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