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Fibonacci 斐波纳契: Page 8 of 9

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How to Use Fibonacci to Place Your Stop so You Lose Less Money

Probably just as important as knowing where to enter or take off profits is knowing where to place your stop loss.

You can’t just enter a trade based on Fib levels without having a clue where to exit. Your account will just go up in flames and you will forever blame Fibonacci, cursing his name in Italian.

In this lesson, you’ll learn a couple of techniques to set your stops when you decide to use them trusty Fib levels. These are simple ways to set your stop and the rationale behind each method.

The first method is to set your stop just past the next Fibonacci level.

If you were planning to enter at the 38.2% Fib level, then you would place your stop beyond the 50.0% level. If you felt like the 50.0% level would hold, then you’d put your stop past the 61.8% level and so on and so forth. Simple, right?

Let’s take another look at that 4-hour EUR/USD chart we showed you back in the Fibonacci retracement lesson.

Aggressive way: Place stop just past the next Fibonacci retracement level

If you had shorted at the 50.0%, you could have placed your stop loss order just past the 61.8% Fib level.

The reasoning behind this method of setting stops is that you believed that the 50.0% level would hold as a resistance point. Therefore, if price were to rise beyond this point, your trade idea would be invalidated.

The problem with this method of setting stops is that it is entirely dependent on you having a perfect entry.

Setting a stop just past the next Fibonacci retracement level assumes that you are really confident that the support or resistance area will hold. And, as we pointed out earlier, using drawing tools isn’t an exact science.

The market might shoot up, hit your stop, and eventually go in your direction. This is usually when we’d go to a corner, and start hitting our head on the wall.

We’re just warning you that this might happen, sometimes a few times in a row, so make sure you limit your losses quickly and let your winners run with the trend. It might be best if you used this type of stop placement method for short term, intraday trades.

Now, if you want to be a little safer, another way to set your stops would be to place them past the recent Swing High or Swing Low.

This type of stop loss placement would give your trade more room to breathe and give you a better chance for the market to move in favor of your trade.

Conservative way: Place stop past the Swing High/Low

If the market price were to surpass the Swing High or Swing Low, it may indicate that a reversal of the trend is already in place. This means that your trade idea or setup is already invalidated and that you’re too late to jump in.

Setting larger stop losses would probably be best used for longer term, swing-type trades, and you can also incorporate this into a “scaling in” method, which you will learn later on in this course.

Of course, with a larger stop, you also have to remember to adjust your position size accordingly.

If you tend to trade the same position size, you may incur large losses, especially if you enter at one of the earlier Fib levels.

This can also lead to some unfavorable reward-to-risk ratios, as you may have a wide stop that isn’t proportional to your potential reward.

So which way is better?

The truth is, just like in combining the Fibonacci retracement tool with support and resistance, trend lines, and candlesticks to find a better entry, it would be best to use your knowledge of these tools to analyze the current environment to help you pick a good stop loss point.

As much as possible, you shouldn’t rely solely on Fibonacci levels as support and resistance points as the basis for stop loss placement.

Remember, stop loss placement isn’t a sure thing, but if you can tilt the odds in your favor by combining multiple tools, it could help give you a better exit point, more room for your trade to breathe, and possibly a better reward-to-risk ratio trade.

使用斐波那契来设置止损



       就像在哪里能下单和获利平单一样,在哪里放置止损,同样的重要。

       你不能在一个,没有出场讯号的基础上,单单使用斐波那契的位置来下单。你的账户很快会在趋势中燃烧起来。那么你会永远的责怪斐波那契,并用印度语来诅咒他。

       在本课中,你会学到一些设置止损的技术,这些都是设置止损的简单方法。当你信赖斐波那契的位置时,就使用他们吧。

       第一种方法是在价格刚经过斐波纳契的位置时,把止损放在下个斐波纳契的位置附近。

       如果你打算在38.2%的斐波那契位置,下卖单的话,那么你应该把止损设置在50.0%的位置附近。那么,如果你觉得在50.0%的位置下卖单安全的话,那么你会把止损设置在61.8%的位置附近等等等等,以此类推。很简单,对吧?

       让我们再看看一遍,在斐波那契回撤课中,4小时欧元/美元的图表。

 

       如果你把卖单下在50.0%,你应该会把你的止损定在61.8%的斐波那契位置附近。

       这样设置止损的原因是,你相信50.0%的位置会成为一个很好的阻力位。但是假如,价格意想不到的突破那位置,那你的卖单就会自动平仓。

       这种止损设置的方法,唯一问题就只是你需要有一个完美的入场点

       假设你对在哪里找到支撑和阻力相当的有自信,那就可以用这方法,在斐波那契的下一个位置附近设置止损。而且,正如我们前面强调的,使用指标工具不是一门精确的科学。

       而且市场很可能会迅速攀升,先打掉你的止损,再摇摇摆摆的朝你下单的方向走去。它就像当我们走到一个角落时,突然被人把我们的脑袋往墙上撞。

       我们只是警告你,这可能发生,有时还会连续好几次,所以一定要迅速限制你的亏损单,并让你的盈利单继续与趋势同行。如果你是个短线和日内的交易者,这种类型的止损方法,对你或许是最好的。

       现在,如果你想更保险一点,你可以使用另外一种方法,就是把止损设置在波段的高点或低点之后。

       这种止损的方式,会给你的交易有更多的喘息空间,以及给你有更高的机率,市场会朝你喜欢的方向移动。



       如果市场价格超越了波段的高点或低点,就可能表明了一个趋势的逆转已经形成了。也意味着你下单的念头或设置已经无效,或是你跳进去的手脚太慢了。

       设置一个大的止损,对于长线交易者或波段交易者来说,是个不错的选择。您还可以把这方法组合进 “加仓策略”中。迟些时候,你将会学到这个策略。

       当然,在一个大的止损下,你还是必须要记得,适当的调整你仓位的大小。

       而且,如果你习惯于每次都下固定手数的单子,您可能会蒙受巨大的损失,特别是如果你在把单子,下在斐波那契水平初期的位置。

      这方法对于 风险-回报-比 也有不利的影响,如果你的止损设置得太宽的话,会造成对你潜在的获利比率,不成正比。


所以,哪个方法比较好呢?

       现实是,就像把斐波纳契指标 和 阻力\支撑、趋势线、蜡烛图结合在一起使用,来寻找一个更好的下单位置一样。只能根据当时的市场,结合你所有技术分析的经验,来帮你挑选最好的止损位置。

      使用越多的分析经验就越好,而不应该单单的只用斐波纳契的位置,作为设置止损的基础。

      请记住,止损位置的设置不是一个非做不可的事,但是如果你已经结合了自己所喜好的指标工具,并且得到不错的胜率。那止损就可以给你一个更好的出场点,更轻松的交易方式,和一个有更好的 风险-回报-比 的系统。