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Fibonacci 斐波纳契: Page 7 of 9

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How to Use Fibonacci Extensions to Know When to Take Profit

The next use of Fibonacci will be using them to find targets.

Gotta always keep in mind “Zombieland Rules of Survival #22″ – When in doubt, know your way out! Let’s start with an example in an uptrend.

In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci Price Extension Level. You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks.

First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on any of the retracement levels.

This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels. Pretty neat, huh?

Let’s go back to that example with the USD/CHF chart we showed you in the previous lesson.

Former resistance turned support at 1.0510 held nicely

The 50.0% Fib level held strongly as support and, after three tests, the pair finally resumed its uptrend. In the chart above, you can even see price rise above the previous Swing High.

Let’s pop on the Fibonacci extension tool to see where would have been a good place to take off some profits.

Fib extensions help us spot potential take profit points

Here’s a recap of what happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred:

  • Price rallied all the way to the 61.8% level, which lined up closely with the previous Swing High.
  • It fell back to the 38.2% level, where it found support
  • Price then rallied and found resistance at the 100% level.
  • A couple of days later, price rallied yet again before finding resistance at the 161.8% level.

As you can see from the example, the 61.8%, 100% and 161.8% levels all would have been good places to take off some profits.

Now, let’s take a look at an example of using Fibonacci extension levels in a downtrend.

In a downtrend, the general idea is to take profits on a short trade at a Fibonacci extension level since the market often finds support at these levels.

Let’s take another look at that downtrend on the 1-hour EUR/USD chart we showed you in the Fib Sticks lesson.

Buyers could not break through the 61.8% Fib. Sellers jumped back in and brought price back down to test former lows

Here, we saw a doji form just under the 61.8% Fib level. Price then reversed as sellers jumped back in, and brought price all the way back down to the Swing Low.

Let’s put up that Fib Extension tool to see where would have been some good places to take profits had we shorted at the 61.8% retracement level.

The 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% extension levels would have all been good places to take profit

Here’s what happened after price reversed from the Fibonacci retracement level:

  • Price found support at the 38.2% level
  • The 50.0% level held as initial support, then became an area of interest
  • The 61.8% level also became an area of interest, before price shot down to test the previous Swing Low
  • If you look ahead, you’ll find out that the 100% extension level also acted as support

We could have taken off profits at the 38.2%, 50.0%, or 61.8% levels. All these levels acted as support, possibly because other traders were keeping an eye out for these levels for profit taking as well.

The examples illustrate that price finds at least some temporary support or resistance at the Fibonacci extension levels – not always, but often enough to correctly adjust your position to take profits and manage your risk.

Of course, there are some problems to deal with here.

First, there is no way to know which exact Fibonacci extension level will provide resistance. Any of these levels may or may not act as support or resistance.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low to start from in creating the Fibonacci extension levels.

One way is from the last Swing Low as we did in the examples; another is from the lowest Swing Low of the past 30 bars. Again, the point is that there is no one right way to do it, but with a lot of practice, you’ll make better decisions of picking Swing points.

You will have to use your discretion in using the Fibonacci extension tool. You will have to judge how much longer the trend will continue. Later on, we will teach you methods to help you determine the strength of a trend.

For now, let’s move on to stop loss placement!

斐波纳契拓展



       斐波那契的第二个用处是用来寻找利润兑现的目标。

       首先你千千万万的要牢记着“僵尸乐园生存的#第22规则”——》感觉到危机的时候,清楚知道哪里是出口!让我们从一个上升趋势中的例子开始了解。

       当处在上升的趋势时,最普遍的想法就是把买单获得的利润,通过斐波那契扩展位置,然后逐步兑现。你只要在滑鼠上按三下,就可以画出斐波那契的扩展位置了,指标会显示出价格扩展的比率和关键位置。很漂亮整洁的,是吧?

       让我们继续使用前面课程中,美元/瑞郎的图表来当示范。

 

       在50.0%肥婆位置的强烈支撑下,货币对经过三次的突刺失败后,终于恢复了上升趋势。在上图中,你甚至可以看见价格升破了波动的高点。

       让我们亮出斐波那契扩展指标来看看,有哪些好位置可以让我们兑现一些利润。

 

      现在让我们来回顾一下,刚才价格在波段的低点反弹后,发生了什么事:
          •价格一路攀升到61.8%的扩展位置停了下,这与之前的波段高点有着紧密的关系。
          •它回落至38.2%的扩展位置,在这得到支撑。
          •然后价格上升,到达了100%的扩展位置停了下。
          •几天后,价格将再次上升到161.8%的扩展位置。

       正如你所看到的这个例子,61.8%,100%和161.8%的扩展位置都是将利润逐步兑现的好地方。


       现在,让我们从一个下跌趋势的例子中看看,如何使用斐波那契扩展的。

       在一个下跌的趋势下,最普遍的想法是,把卖单获得的利润,通过斐波那契扩展位置,然后逐步兑现。因为市场经常在这些位置,获得支撑。

       让我们来看看另一个例子, 欧元/美元  1小时的下跌趋势图,就是我们在肥婆棒子课程里展示给您的那个。

       在这里,我们看到了价格在61.8%斐波那契位置处形成了一个十字形,然后就像所有卖方突然都下来卖单,价格反转,并一路回落到了波段低点。

      让我们放上斐波那契扩展指标来看看,有哪些不错的位置好让我们平单获利。

 

       这是价格在斐波那契位置,反转后发生的事:
          •价格滑落到38.2%的扩展位置,获得支撑
          •在50.0%的扩展位置受到初步支撑的反弹,是个获利或加仓的区域
          •在61.8%的扩展位置也是个获利或加仓的区域,然后价格继续下跌,开始尝试突破之前的波段低点。
          •如果你继续往前看,你会发现,100%的扩展位置也是个受到支撑的位置。

       我们可以在38.2%,50.0%,或者61.8%的位置兑现全部或部分的利润。所有这些位置会受到支撑,可能是因为其他交易者也紧盯着这些位置,准备平单获利。

       这些例子说明,市场在经常斐波纳契的扩展位置,找到一些暂时的支撑或阻力位置- 虽然不会每一次都准确,但已经足够的机会让你平单、加仓和好好的调整过仓位了。

       当然,这里也有一些问题要处理。

       首先,就是没有办法知道哪一个确切的斐波纳契扩展位置会提供阻力。任何位置都有可能或是不可能成为支撑和阻力的位置。

       另一个问题是在创建斐波那契扩展位置时,如何确立哪一个是波段的开始低点。

       一种方法是我们曾经在课程例子中示范的;另一种是在过去的30只蜡烛中,选价格最低的低点。

      再次强调,使用斐波那契扩展指标,没有绝对正确的方法,只有通过大量的练习统计,你才会在选择波段低点时做出更好的决策。

      你需要灵活的使用斐波那契扩展来确定你的方向。您需要判断这一趋势将持续多久。稍后,我们将教给您,可以帮助您确定趋势强度的方法。

      现在,让我们先说说止损位置!