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Fibonacci 斐波纳契: Page 3 of 9

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Fibonacci Retracement is NOT Foolproof

Back in Grade 1, we said that support and resistance levels eventually break. Well, seeing as how Fibonacci levels are used to find support and resistance levels, this also applies to Fibonacci!

Fibonacci retracements do NOT always work! They are not foolproof. Let’s go through an example when the Fibonacci retracement tool fails.

Below is a 4-hour chart of GBP/USD.

Here, you see that the pair has been in downtrend, so you decided to take out your Fibonacci retracement tool to help you spot a good entry point. You use the Swing High at 1.5383, with a swing low at 1.4799.

You see that the pair has been stalling at the 50.0% level for the past couple of candles.

You say to yourself, “Oh man, that 50.0% Fib level! It’s holding baby! Time to short this sucka!”

You short at market and start day dreaming that you’ll be driving down Rodeo Drive in your new Maserati with Scarlett Johansson (or if you’re a lady trader, Ryan Gosling) in the passenger seat…

Resistance at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement seems to be holding

Now, if you really did put an order at that level, not only would your dreams go up in smoke, but your account would take a serious hit if you didn’t manage your risk properly!

Take a look at what happened.

Fibonacci retracement levels failed to hold and price broke through for new highs

It turns out that that Swing Low was the bottom of the downtrend and market began to rally above the Swing High point.

What’s the lesson here?

While Fibonacci retracement levels give you a higher probability of success, like other technical tools, they don’t always work. You don’t know if price will reverse to the 38.2% level before resuming the trend.

Sometimes it may hit 50.0% or the 61.8% levels before turning around. Heck, sometimes price will just ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels just like how Lebron James bullies his way through the lane with sheer force.

Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support or resistance, but instead continue to go past the recent Swing High or Low.

Another common problem in using the Fibonacci retracement tool is determining which Swing Low and Swing High to use.

People look at charts differently, look at different time frames, and have their own fundamental biases. It is likely that Stephen from Pipbuktu and the girl from Pipanema have different ideas of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be.

The bottom line is that there is no absolute right way to do it, especially when the trend on the chart isn’t so clear. Sometimes it becomes a guessing game.

That’s why you need to hone your skills and combine the Fibonacci retracement tool with other tools in your forex toolbox to help give you a higher probability of success.

In the next lesson, we’ll show you how to use the Fibonacci retracement tool in combination with other forms of support and resistance levels and candlesticks.

当斐波纳契应用失败时



      还记得在 第 1 课 时,我们说过:不管多强劲的支撑和阻力位,最终都会被突破。所以,把斐波纳契的比率位置拿来当作支持和阻力位使用时,也会有同样的下场!

      现在,让我们来看一个斐波纳契回撤指标失败的例子。

      以下是 英镑/美元 4小时图。

      在这里,您会看到一组在下降的货币对,然后你决定拿出你的斐波纳契指标来帮助你发现一个很好的下单点。你使用的价位是波段高点的1.5383位置和低点的1.4799位置。

      你发现这组货币对50.0%的位置徘徊不前,你对自己说:“嘿,哥们,在肥婆
50.0%位置!价格被肥婆重重的压着不动,机会难得!”

      你重重的下了卖单,然后开始梦想:自己驾着新的豪华开篷跑车
在郊外,旁边载着位性感的美女(或者是英俊的帅哥) 。。。

 

      现在,如果你真的在这个位置下了一个订单,却没有做好
正确的资金管理,那么不仅你的梦想会破灭,你的账户也会严重受到伤害!

     看一下发生了什么事。

 

       价格在波段的底点反弹,然后完全突破了波段的高点!这不止是个反弹,还是市场趋势的转向。

       这让你学习到什么?

       虽然斐波纳契的比率位置,可以给你一个更高的成功概率,但就像其他技术分析工具一样,它们并不是永远有效的。你不知道价格在回撤到 
38.2%的位置后,是会扭转还是回复之前的趋势。

       有时价格
可能会达到50.0%或61.8%的位置才扭转。哎呀,有时价格根本不理会Fibonacci先生,就像甄子丹表演过五关斩六将的武术一样,所有的位置都被秒杀掉。

       记住,市场趋势在遇见次级的支撑或阻力位后,可能会改变它原本的趋势,但也可能会保持趋势继续,直接突破所有的
支撑或阻力位。

      另一个使用斐波纳契指标最常见的问题就是:该怎么确定波段的高点和低点

      大家用的图表不一样,看的时段也不同,并拥有自己的观点。就像来自火星的阿辉和水星的阿花一定会对哪里应该是波段的高点和低点有着不同的看法。

      底线是,没有什么绝对正确的方法,尤其是在图表上趋势不那么明确的时候。有时,它会成为一个猜谜游戏。

      这就是为什么你需要磨练自己的技术,并且将斐波那契指标与你外汇的其他指标相结合的原因,这才能增加你获得成功的胜算。

      在下一课,我们将向您展示如何将
斐波那契这指标,与其他类型的阻力和支撑位,或蜡烛线相结合。