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Fibonacci 斐波纳契: Page 2 of 9

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How to Use Fibonacci Retracement to Enter a Forex Trade

The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the forex market is trending.

The idea is to go long (or buy) on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending up, and to go short (or sell) on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending down.

Finding Fibonacci Retracement Levels

In order to find these Fibonacci retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows. Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.

For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.

Got that? Now, let’s take a look at some examples on how to apply Fibonacci retracements levels to the currency markets.

Uptrend

This is a daily chart of AUD/USD.

Daily chart of AUD/USD with Fibonacci retracement levels

Here we plotted the Fibonacci retracement levels by clicking on the Swing Low at .6955 on April 20 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at .8264 on June 3. Tada! The software magically shows you the retracement levels.

As you can see from the chart, the Fibonacci retracement levels were .7955 (23.6%), .7764 (38.2%), .7609 (50.0%), .7454 (61.8%), and .7263 (76.4%).

Now, the expectation is that if AUD/USD retraces from the recent high, it will find support at one of those Fibonacci retracement levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as price pulls back.

Now, let’s look at what happened after the Swing High occurred.

Fibonacci Retracement: 38.2% Fib level held as support

Price pulled back right through the 23.6% level and continued to shoot down over the next couple of weeks. It even tested the 38.2% level but was unable to close below it.

Later on, around July 14, the market resumed its upward move and eventually broke through the swing high. Clearly, buying at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would have been a profitable long term trade!

Downtrend

Now, let’s see how we would use the Fibonacci retracement tool during a downtrend. Below is a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD.

4-hour chart of EUR/USD with Fibonacci retracement levels

As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.4195 on January 25 and our Swing Low at 1.3854 a few days later on February 1. The retracement levels are 1.3933 (23.6%), 1.3983 (38.2%), 1.4023 (50.0%), 1.4064 (61.8%) and 1.4114 (76.4%).

The expectation for a downtrend is that if price retraces from this low, it could possibly encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci levels because traders who want to play the downtrend at better prices may be ready with sell orders there.

Let’s take a look at what happened next.

Fibonacci Retracement: 50.0% Fib level held as resistance

Yowza, isn’t that a thing of beauty?!

The market did try to rally, stalled below the 38.2% level for a bit before testing the 50.0% level. If you had some orders either at the 38.2% or 50.0% levels, you would’ve made some mad pips on that trade.

In these two examples, we see that price found some temporary forex support or resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels. Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.

One thing you should take note of is that price won’t always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest, or as Cyclopip likes to call them, “KILL ZONES!” We’ll teach you more about that later on.

For now, there’s something you should always remember about using the Fibonacci tool and it’s that they are not always simple to use! If they were that simple, traders would always place their orders at Fibonacci retracement levels and the markets would trend forever.

In the next lesson, we’ll show you what can happen when Fibonacci retracement levels fail.

斐波纳契回撤



       首先你应该知道
最,有效的的使用斐波纳契工具是在市场呈现趋势的时候。

       而方法是:在上升趋势中,当价格回调到
斐波纳契回撤位置时,做多单(买入);或是在下降趋势中,当价格回调斐波纳契回撤位置时,做空单(卖出)。

       为了找到这些回撤水平,你必须找到最近波段的显著高点和低点。然后用鼠标把
斐波纳契工具移到高点和低点之间。明白了吗?

       现在,让我们看看一些使用
斐波纳契工具的例子。


上升趋势
这是澳元/美元的日线图。

 

       这里,我们在4月20号的波段低点0.6955位置,拖动
斐波纳契指标到6月3号的波段高点0.8264位置。哇!该软件显示了神奇的回撤位置。

       正如您从图中看到的,回撤的位置在0.7955(23.6%),0.7764(38.2%),0.7609(50.0%),0.7454(61.8%)和0.7263(76.4%)。

       现在,观望如果澳元/美元从高处回调的话,它将会在
斐波纳契的其中一个回撤位置找到支撑。因为很多交易者们将订单,放置在这些回撤的位置,所以它会得到这些斐波纳契位置的支撑。

      现在,让我们来看看在波段出现高点后发生了什么事。

 

      价格开始在
23.6%的位置强力反弹,几天之后又继续滑落了几个星期。它测试了几次38.2%的位置,但都无法在收市时突破它。

      后来,7月14日左右,市场恢复了上涨趋势并爆发的突破了波段的高点的。显然,在38.2%斐波纳契位置买入,长期而言将是一个有利可图的交易!


下跌趋势

现在,让我们看看如何在一个
欧元/美元4小时图的下跌过程中使用斐波纳契回撤工具。 

 

      正如你所看到的,我们
发现波段的高点在1月26号的1.4195位置,而低点在几天后2月2日的1.3854位置。斐波纳契回撤位置是1.3933(23.6%),1.3983(38.2%),1.4023(50.0%),1.4064(61.8%)和1.4114(76.4%)。

      对于一个下跌趋势的看法是,如果价格从低点反弹,那么
斐波纳契回撤的其中之一位置将成为关键的阻力位置,因为很多的交易者已经在这些位置附近挂上了卖单