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Elliott Wave Theory艾略特波浪理论: Page 2 of 7

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Impulse Waves

Mr. Elliott showed that a trending market moves in what he calls a 5-3 wave pattern.

The first 5-wave pattern is called impulse waves.

The last 3-wave pattern is called corrective waves.

In this pattern, Waves 1, 3, 5 are motive, meaning they go along with the overall trend, while Waves 2 and 4 are corrective.

Do not confuse Waves 2 and 4 with the ABC corrective pattern (discussed in the next section) though!

Let’s first take a look at the 5-wave impulse pattern. It’s easier if you see it as a picture:

 

Impulse Wave or 5-Wave Pattern
That still looks kind of confusing. Let’s splash some color on this bad boy.

 

 

Impulse Wave or 5-Wave Pattern in Color
Ah magnifico! It’s so pretty! We like colors, so we’ve color-coded each wave along with its wave count.

 

Here is a short description of what happens during each wave.

We’re going to use stocks for our example since stocks are what Mr. Elliott used but it really doesn’t matter what it is. It can easily be currencies, bonds, gold, oil, or Tickle Me Elmo dolls. The important thing is the Elliott Wave Theory can also be applied to the foreign exchange market.

Wave 1

The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons, real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.

Wave 2

At this point, enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.

Wave 3

This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.

Wave 4

Traders take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips.”

Wave 5

This is the point that most people get on the stock and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. Traders and investors start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.

Extended Impulse Waves

One thing that you also need to know about the Elliott Wave Theory is that one of the three impulse waves (1, 3, or 5) will always be “extended”. Simply put, there will always be one wave that is longer than the other two, regardless of degree.

According to Elliott, it is usually the fifth wave which is extended. As time went by, this old school style of wave labeling has changed because more and more people started labeling the third wave as the extended one.

Check out this forum thread for more Elliott Wave diagrams.

5 - 3 波浪形态

       Elliott先生表明,一个趋势市场的波动,是属于他所谓的5-3浪形态。

       前面的5浪形态称为 推动浪

       后面的3浪形态称为 调整浪

       在这个形态中,浪1、3、5是 驱动浪,这意味着它们总随着主趋势,而浪2和4是 回调浪

       不要混淆浪2、4和浪ABC调整形态(下一节将谈论)!

       让我们先看看推动浪的5浪形态。如果你看到它的图画,很容易就会了解的:

  



       这看起来还是有点混淆,让我们给这坏家伙漆上点颜色看看。



       帅气吧!它是如此的漂亮!我们喜欢五颜六色,所以我们在数浪时,顺便为每个浪涂上不同的颜色。

       这里会分别对每一浪做简短的说明。

       我们将使用股票市场做为例子,因为艾略特先生原本是以股票为基础,但这其实没有什么问题。其实它更适合应用于分析货币、债券、黄金、石油或芝麻街Elmo 搔痒娃娃的市场价格。 最重要的是,艾略特波浪理论同样能被应用到外汇市场中。

  第一浪
       股票最初的上涨趋势,这通常是因为一群人,突然间(由于各种真实或幻想的原因) 认为股票的价格相当便宜了,所以择机买进。这导致了价格的上涨。

第二浪
       部分在之前买进的人士认为股票已经超值,并且获利了结,这导致股价回落。然而,由于捡便宜的买家多过买家,所以股价并没有跌回到之前第一浪的低点。

第三浪
       它通常是最长和最强劲的一浪,该公司的股价已经吸引了广大股民的注意力。越来越多的人知道了该股,并积极买进,这将导致股票的价格越涨越高。第三浪通常远远超出了第一浪的最高点。

第四浪
       大部分的交易者们综合分析股市已经偏高,开始平仓获利。这段波浪往往回调比较疲弱,而且显得比较复杂,因为同时有更多的股民,觉得股票仍在牛市,正等待着“逢低买进。”

第五浪
       这一浪中所有的买家都进场了,股价的波动大部分是被歇斯底里所驱动着。你通常开始在各大名人杂志的首页,看到该公司的CEO。并且开始有交易者们和投资者们用各种荒谬乐观的理由来买进该公司的股票,当你反对他们时,他们恨不得把你给掐死。这时候股价往往是严重超值的,反向交易者尝试在股票出现ABC形态的时候,开始布置空单。

延伸的驱动浪

       关于艾略特的波浪理论,还有一件事您也需要了解,就是三波的驱动浪(浪1、3和5)中将永远有一浪是“延伸浪”。简单地说,总是会有一浪,波长比其他两浪更长,不论它的波幅有多大。

       据艾略特所说,通常延伸浪是出现在第五浪。随着时间的流逝,这延伸浪的旧理论已经改变了,因为越来越多的人开始把第三浪定义为延伸浪了。