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Elliott Wave Theory艾略特波浪理论

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Elliott Wave Theory

Elliott Wave Theory Inventor: Ralph Nelson Elliott

Back in the old school days of the 1920-30s, there was this mad genius and professional accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott.

By analyzing closely 75 years worth of stock data, Elliott discovered that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, actually didn’t.

When he hit 66 years old, he finally gathered enough evidence (and confidence) to share his discovery with the world.

He published his theory in the book entitled The Wave Principle.

According to him, the market traded in repetitive cycles, which he pointed out were the emotions of investors caused by outside influences (ahem, CNBC, Bloomberg, ESPN) or the predominant psychology of the masses at the time.

Elliott explained that the upward and downward swings in price caused by the collective psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns.

He called these upward and downward swings “waves”.

He believes that, if you can correctly identify the repeating patterns in prices, you can predict where price will go (or not go) next.

This is what makes Elliott waves so appealing to traders. It gives them a way to identify precise points where price is most likely to reverse. In other words, Elliott came up with a system that enables traders to catch tops and bottoms.

So, amidst all the chaos in prices, Elliott found order. Awesome, huh?

Of course, like all mad geniuses, he needed to claim this observation and so he came up with a super original name: The Elliott Wave Theory.

But before we delve into the Elliott waves, you need to first understand what fractals are.

Fractals

Basically, fractals are structures that can be split into parts, each of which is a very similar copy of the whole. Mathematicians like to call this property “self-similarity”.

You don’t need to go far to find examples of fractals. They can found all over nature!

Fractals in Elliott Wave Theory

A sea shell is a fractal. A snow flake is a fractal. A cloud is a fractal. Heck, a lightning bolt is a fractal.

So why are fractals important?

One important quality of Elliott waves is that they are fractals. Much like sea shells and snow flakes, Elliott waves could be further subdivided into smaller Elliot waves.

Ready to be an Elliottician now? Read on!

艾略特波浪理论


           回朔到1920-30年代,有一位疯狂天才和专业的会计师,名叫Ralph Nelson Elliott。

       通过分析了将近75年的股票相关数据,艾略特发现:虽然大多数人认为股市的运动是无规则方式的运行,但其实并非如此。

       当他到了66岁时,终于收集到足够的证据(和信心),并与全世界分享他的发现。

       他把他的理论写在他的著作《波浪理论》里。

       据他的说法,交易市场的价格远动在一种重复的循环形态中,他还指出投资者们的情绪受到外界的影响(就像CNBC新闻台、Bloomberg资讯台、ESPN联播网)或是当时广大民众的主要情绪所影响。

       艾略特解释说,价格的波动上升和下跌,因为受到群体心理的影响,所以总是呈现出同样的形态。

       他把这些上升和下降的波动称为“浪”。

       他坚信,如果你能正确地,辨认出价格正重复的形态,你就可以预测价格,下一步会(或不会)往哪方向走。

       这就是为什么艾略特波浪会对交易者这么的有吸引力。因为它为交易者们提供了一个方法,来辨认价格会在什么位置,最有可能反转。换句话说,艾略特想出了一个系统,让交易者们可以抓住顶部和底部。

       因此,在价格所有的混沌运动中,艾略特发现了规律。很神奇吧,是吗?

       当然,像所有的疯狂天才一样,他需要为这观察方式定义,所以他想出了一个超级独创的名称:艾略特波浪理论。

       但在我们深入了解艾略特波浪之前,你需要先了解一下什么是 分形

分形

       基本上,分形的结构,可以分割成几部分,它们每一个副本都是非常的相似。 数学家喜欢把这种特性称为“自相似性”。

       你并不需要去到远方寻找分形的例子。它们全都可以从大自然里发现!


       一个贝壳是一个分形、一片雪花是一个分形、一片云是一个分形, 哎呀,连一个闪电也是一个分形。

       那么,为什么分形如此重要呢?

       艾略特波浪的一个重要特性就是它们也是分形。 就像贝壳和雪花,艾略特波浪可以进一步细分成更小的艾略特波浪。

       准备好了吗? 继续阅读吧!

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