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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 10 of 10

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China

Welcome to the grown-ups’ table, China!

If all you know about China is that it has the world’s largest population and Great Wall, then you need to read up, playa!

China was first recognized as a unified country back in 221 BC, ruled by the Qin dynasty. No, big, fat pandas weren’t kung fu masters back then; at least we don’t’ think so. Since that time, we’ve seen many dynasties rise and fall until the People’s Republic of China was establish in 1945.

It wasn’t until recently though, that China emerged as a legitimate world power. It boasts world class cities, Olympic gold medalists, and delicious dimsum. Not only is it the birthplace of Yao Ming, it even became the third nation to send a man to space.

From sports, to space travel, to economic might, China is slowly crawling its way up the leader boards!

China

China: Facts, Figures, and Features

China Flag

  • Neighbors: Korea, Mongolia, India, Japan, Russia
  • Size: 3,705,407 square miles
  • Population: 1,350,695,000
  • Density: 373 per square mile
  • Capital City: Beijing (population: 11,716,000)
  • Head of Government: Xi Jinping
  • Currency: Chinese Renminbi / Yuan (CNY)
  • Main Imports: petroleum, copper, iron, steel, machinery, plastics, medical equipment, organic chemicals
  • Main Exports: rice, apparel, clothing, office machines, electronic goods, machinery, steel, Yao Ming, Jackie Chan, Apple iPads, Cherry cars
  • Imports Partners: South Korea 9.4%, Japan 8.3%, Taiwan 8%, United States 7.8%, Australia 5%, Germany 4.8%
  • Exports Partners: Hong Kong 17.4%, United States 16.7%, Japan 6.8%, South Korea 4.1%
  • Time Zone: GMT+8, GMT+7, GMT +6, GMT +5, GMT+4
  • Website: http://english.gov.cn/

Economic Overview

In late 2009, China overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy and as of 2011, China’s GDP stands at a massive 7 trillion USD.

It wasn’t always this way though. For the longest time, China’s economy was secluded from the rest of the world. It was only during the formalization of the modern government, the People’s Republic of China, that China started opening its door to the rest of the world.

China hit a humungous growth spurt in the 1990s and 2000s, as the nation posted ridiculous double digit growth. This put its booming economy at the forefront of emerging market growth.

Interestingly, the growth has been spurred on by the agriculture and industrial industries, which account for more than 60% of the total GDP.

Export trade has also played a major factor, with the undervalued yuan helping make Chinese goods more attractive in international markets.

Over the past year though, there have been fears that the Chinese economy may overheat. To counter this, the Chinese government has implemented various monetary and fiscal policies to ease the transition to more sustainable growth levels.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which is located in Beijing, is in charge of China’s monetary policies. Aside from controlling interest rates and reserve ratio requirements, the PBoC is also tasked with regulating financial institutions in mainland China.

Now here’s a little piece of trivia for you: Did you know that the PBoC currently holds the most financial assets among all the public financial institutions in existence? It is currently holding over $1.3 TRILLION USD worth of Treasury bills, and not to mention all the other bonds from other countries that’s on its balance sheet!

This shouldn’t be too surprising considering how China managed to trump most nations in terms of economic performance!

Another interesting factoid about the PBoC is that its interest rates used to be divisible by 9 instead of 25 a few years back. This was because the Chinese based their rate system on the abacus, which was set in multiplies of 9. Can you imagine reading about a 0.18% hike in benchmark rates?

Recently, however, the PBoC decided to let go of this traditional practice and adopt the convention of hiking or cutting interest rates by 0.25% increments. In fact, the PBoC is pretty notorious for making aggressive interest rate changes depending on how the Chinese economy is faring.

Aside from the interest rate, the PBoC also has the ability to adjust the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) for banks in its monetary policy arsenal. You see, the RRR refers to the amount of cash Chinese banks are required to hold in their vaults. By varying the ratio, the PBoC is able to control how much money is in circulation and keep inflation within their target levels.

Getting to Know the CNY

The yuan is the primary unit of Chinese modern currency or renminbi. If you’re constantly getting confused between yuan and renminbi just as Dr. Pipslow often mistakes sugar for salt when making his morning coffee, all you have to remember is that the term renminbi is the official name of China’s currency while yuan refers to the actual units.

Although China is in the midst of reforming its exchange rate policies, the yuan still remains pegged to the U.S. dollar. This means that if the U.S. dollar rises or falls in value, the yuan follows accordingly. As such, CNY isn’t one of the commonly traded currencies in the forex market.

One problem with this peg is that it has caused tension between China and the United States, who has come close to naming China a currency manipulator. Because the yuan is undervalued, haters claim that it gives China an unfair trade advantage and has be the main driver of Chinese growth.

To China’s credit though, it has been gradually loosening the yuan’s peg in recent years. They’ve done so by slowing introducing CNY-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. Word on the street is that big financial players can’t wait to start changing their cash to yuans and investing in CNY-denominated assets.

Important Economic Indicators for the CNY

GDP – This figure acts as China’s economic report card because it reflects how much their economy expanded or contracted (but it’s the former in recent history, and nearly at double digits too!) for the period. This is typically reported on a quarterly basis compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

CPI – The PBoC keeps a close eye on the Chinese CPI report because it reflects how much price levels have changed over a particular period of time. If the annual CPI reading exceeds or falls below the Chinese government’s target levels, the PBoC could wield its monetary policy tools in its next rate decision.

Trade Balance – A huge chunk of China’s economy is comprised of international trade, which means that the trade balance is typically considered a leading indicator of growth.

PBoC Interest Rate Decision – As we mentioned earlier, PBoC is notorious for making aggressive monetary policy changes whenever they feel that the Chinese economy is overheating or if it needs more stimulus.

Trading the Chinese Economic Reports

Even though the yuan isn’t a commonly traded currency, that doesn’t mean you can’t make any pips off those Chinese economic releases!

Because China’s economy is so ginormous, its economic events will most likely impact those nations that they are closely associated with. One of these is Australia. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, with the two nations exchanging nearly a hundred billion dollars’ worth of products each year.

With that, Chinese economic data releases tend to impact the Australian dollar the most among the major currency pairs. Strong economic data from China typically indicates that the Chinese demand for Australian commodities could increase while weak Chinese data could hint at a downturn in trade with Australia.

Of course, since China is currently the world’s second largest economy next to Uncle Sam, its economic standing also has a huge effect on risk sentiment. This means that a slowdown in China could reduce traders’ appetite for risk and higher-yielding currencies as they worry about the potential impact of this slump on the global economy. On the other hand, an economic boom in China could be positive for risk as market participants see this as a sign of further growth for the global economy.

Trade Tactics

If you watch the Australian dollar just like our comdoll queen Happy Pip, then you should definitely mark your calendars for Chinese economic releases and PBoC statements.

More often than not, better than expected economic figures from China lead to an AUD/USD or AUD/JPY rally while weaker than expected results usually trigger an Aussie selloff. PBoC rate decisions are a little more tricky as these depend on prevailing market sentiment, so it’s best to do your homework and read up on Forex Gump’s economic analysis articles to be in the loop!

Chinese

中国

欢迎来到中国!

如果你对中国的了解仅限于它是世界上人口最多的国家,以及长城,那你需要好好读下去。

中国自公元前221年就是一个统一的国家,由秦统治。不过那时大胖熊猫还不是功夫大师,至少我们不认为它是。自那时起,许多朝代接替出现,直到1949年中华人民共和国成立。

直到最近,中国才以世界认可的大国姿态出现。它有世界级的城市、奥运会冠军和可口的点心。除了是姚明的故乡,中国还是第三个将宇航员送入太空的国家。

从体育到太空旅行,到经济能力,中国在慢慢提升自己在排行榜上的位置。

中国:事实、数据及特点

邻国:韩国、朝鲜、蒙古、印度、日本、俄罗斯

面积:960万平方公里

人口:1,347,350,000

人口密度:363.3人每平方公里

首都:北京(人口11,716,000)

政府首脑:胡锦涛

货币:人民币/元(CNY)

主要进口:石油、铜、铁、机械、塑料、医疗设备、有机化工原料

主要出口:大米、配饰、服装、办公用品、电子产品、机械、钢材、姚明、成龙、苹果平板电脑、奇瑞车

进口伙伴:日本12.7%、韩国9.9%、美国7.3%、德国5.3%、澳大利亚4.37%

出口伙伴:美国18.0%、日本7.7%、韩国4.4%、德国4.3%、荷兰3.2%

时区:东八区、东七区、东六区、东五区、东四区

网站:http://www.gov.cn/

经济概览

2009年末,中国超过日本成为世界上第二大经济体。到2011年,中国的GDP达到了7万亿美元。

它并非一直如此强势。在很长一段时间,中国都维持着脱离世界上其他国家的计划经济。在中华人民共和国成立后,中国开始向世界敞开了它的大门。

中国经济在20世纪末到21世纪初获得了长足的发展,因为它保持了两位数增长速度。其繁荣的经济带动了新兴市场的发展。

有趣的是,其经济增长是靠农业和工业推动的,它们占了GDP总量的60%。

出口贸易扮演了十分重要的角色,物廉价美的商品是中国的商品在国际市场上更具吸引力。

在过去的一年里,市场存在着对中国经济过热的担忧。为此,中国政府实行了一系列的货币和财政政策来放松交易,维持增长水平。

货币和财政政策

中国人民银行位于北京,掌管中国的货币政策。除了控制利率和存款准备金率,中国人民银行也担负着监管中国大陆金融机构的重任。有一点要记住:你知道中国人民银行在所有现有公共金融机构中持有的金融资产数额最大吗?它现在持有价值3万亿美元的美国国债,更不要说它资产负债表上其他国家的债券数额了。

这并不太让人吃惊,只要想想其他国家和中国在经济表现方面差距就知道了。

第一个有关中国人民银行的趣事是几年前它的利率是可以被9整除,而不是可被25整除的。这是由于中国基于算盘建立了它的利率体系,而算盘是以九的倍数设立的。你可以想象基准利率中出现0.18%的读数吗?

然而在2011年,中国人民银行放弃了其原有做法,采用了传统0.25%的利率增加和削减体系。

除了利率,中国人民银行还可以调整银行的存款准备金率(RRR)。存款准备金率是指中国的银行可以保留的现金数额。通过调整存准率,中国人民银行可以控制流通中的现金数量,将通胀维持在目标水平。

了解人民币

元是中国现代货币或人民币的基本单位。如果你总是搞混元和人民币,你只要记住人民币是中国货币的官方名称,而元是实际的单位。尽管中国正在改革它的汇率政策,元依靠美元定价。这意味着如果美元升值或贬值,元随之变动。因此,人民币不是外汇市场中常见的交易货币。

这种依附关系导致了中美之间关系的紧张。美国一直将中国成为汇率操纵国。由于人民币被低估,因此怀恨者称这使得中国享有不公平的贸易优势,而这也是中国经济增长的主要原因。

从中国的角度来说,近几年它放宽了对人民币的限制。他们开始在香港推出以人民币定价的债券。据悉金融巨头们迫不及待的把他们的现金兑换成人民币,然后投资以人民币定价的资产。

与人民币相关的重要经济指标

GDP:这个数据作为中国经济成绩单,反映了中国经济扩张和紧缩(近期其状态是前者,接近两位数)的程度。这份报告按季度发布,显示的是同比变化水平。

CPI:中国人民银行紧密关注中国CPI报告,因为它反映了价格水平在一个特定时间段的变化。如果CPI读数超过了或低于中国政府的预定目标,中国人民银行会在它下一次利率会议上变动货币政策。

贸易差额:中国经济的很大一部分是由国家贸易构成的,这意味着,贸易差额是经济增长的重要指标之一。

中国人民银行利率决定:中国央行会根据整体经济综合考量来决定是否采取利率行动,但中国央行并不会定期公布利率结果。

交易中国经济报告

即使人民币并非常见的交易货币,这也不意味着你不能从中获利。

因为中国经济量极大,它的经济表现将会影响那些和它关系紧密的国家。其中之一就是澳大利亚。中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴,两国每年交易千亿美元的产品。

因此,中国经济数据在主要货币对中,对澳元的影响最大。中国经济数据强势表明,中国对澳大利亚的商品的需求可能会增加,而中国经济数据显现颓势则意味着其与澳大利亚之间的贸易会缩水。

当然,由于中国是仅次于美国的第二大经济体,中国的经济状况对风险情绪的影响很大。这意味着中国经济放缓将降低投资者对风险和高收益货币的偏好,因为他们担心这将使世界经济发展受挫。另一方面,中国经济繁荣是一个积极的信号,市场参与者因为经济香儿而风险偏好增加。

交易技巧

如果你关注澳元交易,那你一定要在你的日历上标好中国经济数据和中国人民银行声明的公布时间。

通常,超出预期的中国经济数据将推升澳元/美元或澳元/日元,而低于预期的数据则将引发澳元空头交易。中国人民银行的利率决议有些复杂,因为它们受市场情绪的影响。