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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 9 of 10

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Switzerland

Switzerland was founded in 1291 and is located in the middle of western Europe and shares much of its history and culture with Germany, Austria, Italy, and France.

Although being right smack in the middle of Europe, Switzerland is not part of the European Union. While there were talks between the EU and Switzerland in the mid 1990s, the Swiss public rejected the proposal to be part of EU. Since then, Switzerland has maintained its economic independence.

Switzerland is considered to be a small country, but let us tell you that it is PACKED! It has a population of about 7.78 million, with around 477 people per square mile.

Switzerland is also known for its neutrality as it has refrained from participating in either of the two World Wars.

Switzerland

Switzerland: Facts, Figures, and Features

Switzerland Flag

  • Neighbors: Germany, France, Italy, Austria
  • Size: 15,940 square miles
  • Population: 7,954,700
  • Density: 477.4 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Bern
  • President of the Swiss Confederation: Didier Burkhalter
  • Currency: Swiss Franc (CHF)
  • Main Imports: Machinery and transport equipments, medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other chemicals, manufactured goods
  • Main Exports: Chemicals, clocks and watches, food, instruments, jewelry, machinery, pharmaceuticals, precious metals, textiles, Rolex, Roger Federer
  • Imports Partners: Germany 26.19%, Italy 10.46%, France 8.4%, United States 6.08%, China 5.75%, Austria 4.4%
  • Exports Partners: Germany 18.5%, United States 11.61%, Italy 7.61%, France 6.96%, United Kingdom 5.67%
  • Time Zones: GMT + 1
  • Website: http://www.switzerland.com/en.cfm/home

Economic Overview

Switzerland is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of per capita income (that’s total GDP divided by the country’s population).

In 2010, it produced $529.9 billion in total output. As small as it is, on a per person basis, it boasts of a GDP of $46,815, which is seventh highest in the world.

Its main trading partners are Germany, the U.S., France, Italy, Austria, Russia, and the U.K. Like Japan, Switzerland is also highly dependent on its exports, which make up about $308.3 billion or 58.2% of its GDP.

Switzerland’s main industries are machinery, chemicals, textiles, precision instruments and watches. Don’t laugh at that last one – it actually comprises a decent chunk of Switzerland’s output! Anyway, it’s time to move on!

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is presently chaired by Mr. Thomas Jordan, conducts the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the country’s monetary and credit conditions.

The Governing Board, which is responsible for determining the bank’s policies, consists of 3 members – the Chairman, Vice Chairman, and a third member. That’s right – only three people are part of the board!

Unlike most central banks, the SNB sets a target range for its desired interest rate (also called Libor) rather than a fixed figure for three months.

On top of its purpose to control the country’s money supply and influence interest rates, the SNB has a more on-hand role in keeping the CHF’s valuation stable.

An excessively strong CHF could cause inflation to spike and could also undermine the country’s exports. With Switzerland’s strong reliance on their exports, the SNB, favors a weaker CHF and does not hesitate to intervene in the forex markets to weaken it.

One of the major monetary policies of the SNB is inflation targeting. The bank’s inflation target, which is monitored in the CPI, is below 2% a year.

The bank will then attempt to influence the country’s actual inflation rate through open market operations and by adjusting the Libor rate.

Speaking of open market operations, the bank influences the Libor rate through short term repurchase (repo) transactions. A repo transaction involves selling of a particular security for cash and agreeing to repurchase the same security at a later date.

If the interest rate in the open market rises over the SNB’s desired band, the central bank will supply the other banks with more liquidity through repo operations at lower repo rates.

On the other hand, the SNB can reduce liquidity by increasing the repo rate, eventually increasing the Libor rate as well.

On the fiscal side, one attractive fiscal policy that Switzerland has is that they have some of the lowest tax rates among developed nations. In fact, it is often referred to as a “tax haven” nation.

Corporate tax rates in Switzerland run from 8.5% to 10.0%. This, in addition to its bank secrecy laws, make Switzerland one of the most business-friendly nations in the world.

Getting to Know the CHF

Not too long ago, France, Belgium, and Luxembourg also termed their currencies as francs… until they adopted the cooler euro, that is. At present, Switzerland is the only one using the franc as its currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Among financial geeks, the Swiss Franc is known as the “Swissy”.

Thanks to Switzerland’s neutrality…

Switzerland is considered to be politically neutral due to its bank secrecy laws, giving the CHF a “safe haven” status as well. Usually, during times of economic uncertainty, investors move their funds into Switzerland, causing the CHF to gain in value.

I’m still stuck in the bling-bling era!

Not only do the Swiss refuse to join the “cool kids” of the EU, but they are also the only country that still adheres to a gold standard.

About 25% of the country’s money is backed with gold reserves, giving the CHF an 80% correlation with the price of gold. This means that whenever the price of gold rises, the CHF could stand to benefit as well.

Important Economic Indicators for the CHF

GDP – The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the measure of the country’s total value of all final goods and services. The report gauges the change in the economy’s total output from the previous period.

Retail sales – The headline retail sales report measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at a retail level.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The CPI measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services. The CPI is followed closely by the SNB, as it uses the report to help in its inflation analysis.

Balance of Trade – The balance of trade measures the total difference in value between exported and imported goods in the country. Switzerland has a very robust export industry so traders often use the country’s trade balance to measure how well the economy is faring.

What Moves the CHF

Price of Gold

As mentioned earlier, the CHF has an 80% correlation with the price of gold, as 25% of Switzerland’s cash is backed with gold reserves. When gold prices go up, the CHF usually goes up as well. Conversely, when gold prices slide, the CHF likewise declines.

Developments in the Euro Zone and the U.S.

Since Switzerland is an export-dependent country, it is vastly affected by the economic development of its major trading partners in the euro zone and the U.S. Switzerland’s major export partners in the euro zone are Germany (21.2%), France (8.2%), Italy (7.9%), and Austria (4.5%).

The U.S., meanwhile, takes about 8.7% of Switzerland’s exports. Poor economic performance in any of these countries could mean less business for Switzerland.

Sortin’ Out the Rough Edges

Political tension in its neighbors in Europe, particularly in the euro zone, could cause traders to seek the safety of the Swissy.

Remember that the euro zone is a brood of 16 states with the ECB directing and implementing a set of monetary policies for the entire group.

Given that the economies of the member-countries grow at different paces, ECB policies sometimes go against what a single nation needs at that specific time.

The X-factor

USD/CHF is also affected by the cross exchange rates like EUR/CHF. A jump in the EUR’s valuation due to a hike in the ECB’s interest rate, for example, could spill the Swissy’s weakness onto other currency pairs like USD/CHF.

Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Activities

Switzerland’s main industry is banking and finance. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, or simply the buying and selling of firms, are very common.

How can this affect the spot prices of the CHF?

For example, if a foreign firm wishes to acquire a business in Switzerland, it will have to pay for it using CHF. On the other hand, if a Swiss bank, for example, wishes to purchase a US firm, it will then have to dump its CHF for the USD.

Trading USD/CHF

USD/CHF is traded in the amounts denominated in USD. Standard lots sizes are $100,000 while mini lot sizes are $10,000.

The pip value, which is denominated in CHF, is calculated by dividing 1 pip (0.0001) by USD/CHF’s rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in Swiss francs. For one standard lot position size, each pip fluctuation is valued at 10 CHF. For one mini lot position size, each pip fluctuation is worth 1 CHF. To illustrate, if the prevailing market rate of USD/CHF is 1.0600 and you want to trade one standard lot, then one pip would be equivalent to 9.4340 USD.

Margin calculations are typically in USD. At 100:1 leverage, you need $1,000 to control 100,000 units of USD/CHF.

USD/CHF Trading Tactics

The Swissy pairs (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF) are usually active during the European trading session only. Both currency pairs tend to be range-bound most of the time. Given this, they are mostly susceptible to sudden spikes and breakouts.

As we mentioned earlier, the SNB is very much keen on monitoring the valuation of the Swissy. It is notoriously known to intervene in the forex market to weaken the CHF especially when it reaches some historical key levels.

For example, if USD/CHF falls back to its yearly low due to an increase in risk appetite, the SNB could just be lurking around to push the pair back higher.

You could also trade the Swissy by monitoring the economic fundamentals of its major trading partner, the euro zone. Any economic or political tension in the euro zone could lead investors back to the safety of the Swissy.

Given this, currency crosses like EUR/CHF could also be used to trade, for example, the USD/CHF. A rate hike by the ECB which boosts EUR/CHF could also spill over on USD/CHF.

Swiss

瑞士

如果你看过《指环王》,你也许知道中土世界是在新西兰的山中取景的。

除了是巴金斯(Frobo Baggins)和他的霍比特朋友的故乡,新西兰还是澳大利亚在大洋洲的邻国之一,位于太平洋南部。

该国主要由两个岛屿组成,北岛和南岛,此外还有一些小岛。

以羊比人多而闻名的新西兰有400万居民。为了让你更清楚这代表了什么,我们举个例子,2011年仅纽约的人口就有840万。

新西兰也被称为Aotearoa,毛利语的意思为“长白云之乡”。毛利语是新西兰的主要语言之一。

新西兰:事实、数据和特点

邻国:澳大利亚、斐济、汤加

面积:104,454平方英里

人口:4,268,600

人口密度:40.9每平方公里

首都:惠灵顿

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理约翰?基

货币:新西兰元(NZD)

主要进口:机械和设备、车辆和飞机、试验品、石油、电子产品、纺织品、塑料

主要出口:克罗(Russell Crowe)、矿石和金属、羊毛。食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械及设备

进口伙伴:德国13.5%、美国10.2%、法国8.1%、荷兰6.3%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.7%

出口伙伴:美国15.7%、德国10.5%、法国9.5%、荷兰6.9%、爱尔兰6.5%、比利时5.6%、西班牙4.4%、意大利4.4%

时区:东12区

网站:http://www.newzealand.govt.nz

经济概览

由于人口很少,新西兰的经济量也较小。2011年新西兰的GDP为1230亿美元,在全球所有经济体中排名65。但是不要低估新西兰,它在世界贸易中扮演着十分重要的角色。

新西兰的经济活动主要依靠贸易,特别是和南方大陆(澳大利亚)、旭日之国(日本)、及山姆大叔(美国)之间贸易。其经济是出口导向型经济,主要出口商品,如矿石、金属和羊毛占了新西兰GDP的三分之一。它也出口牛和奶制品。安格斯牛肉听起来耳熟吗?

新西兰的主要产业包括农业和旅游业,而其制造业和技术部门很小。因此,它从其他国家进口的商品包括重型机械、设备、车辆和电子制品。

自从新西兰取消了许多限制外国投资壁垒,世界银行称赞新西兰为世界上仅次于新加坡的商业友好国家。

货币和财政政策

新西兰联储(新西兰央行)掌管该国的货币和财政政策。目前该行行长是伯纳德,新西兰联储每年召开8次货币政策会议。该央行的任务是维持物价稳定,确定利率和监控产出及汇率。为了保持物价稳定,新西兰联储要确保年通胀率达到央行设定的1.5%的标准,否则政府有权开掉新西兰储备银行的行长(我们不是开玩笑的)。

新西兰联储有以下几个货币政策工具:

官方贴现利率由新西兰联储主席确定,将会影响短期利率水平。以高于官方贴现利率25点借出,以低于该利率25点借入,央行可以调控个人和企业的利率。

公开市场操作是为了达到现金目标或在商业银行中保管的储备金数量。通过每天预测现金目标,新西兰联储可以计算要向经济中注入多少资金才能达到其目标。

了解纽元

新西兰元(纽元)的昵称是“几维”。它是一种鸟。几维是新西兰的象征……但是让我们来看看被称为几维的该国货币和它有趣的特征。

让我看看这些商品!

由于新西兰的经济依靠商品和农产品出口,因此该国的经济表现和商品价格密切相关。

如果商品价格上涨,新西兰出口商品的价格相应增加,这将为该国贡献更多的GDP。高GDP表明经济表现良好,这将导致纽元升值。

相反,商品价格下降意味着出口总价下降,对GDP的贡献变小。低GDP将导致纽元贬值。

我与澳元携手并进

因为澳大利亚是新西兰的头号贸易伙伴,因此澳大利亚的经济表现对新西兰经济的影响重大。

例如,澳大利亚经济表现良好时,澳大利亚企业将增加进口活动,猜猜谁会从中受益呢?当然是新西兰!

……与澳元一样,我享受套利交易!

同澳大利亚一样,与其他经济体,如美国、英国、日本相比,新西兰利率较高。

经济体之间的利率差异是资金流动的指示器。由于投资者青睐高收益,因此,他们卖掉低收益投资,买入高收益资产或货币。换句话说,利率越高,流入资金越高。

我想要更多的移民。

因为新西兰的人口比纽约人口的一半还要少,移民的增加对该国经济的影响巨大。这是因为人口增加,对商品的需求和消费增加了。

我也对天气状况很敏感。

新西兰的经济很大程度上受农业的影响,这意味着严峻的天气状况,如干旱,对该国经济的负面影响很大。热浪同样会影响澳大利亚,并导致森林火灾,在成其GDP1%的损失。这对新西兰没有什么好处。

与纽元相关的重要经济指标

国内生产总值(GDP):同其他国家一样,GDP是新西兰经济报告中的一环。GDP用以衡量新西兰经济整体表现,会对纽元需求造成影响。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI衡量价格水平的变化。作为衡量通胀的指数,它受到新西兰联储的密切关注,以此来确定货币政策的变化。它的目的是保持物价稳定,记得吗?

贸易差额:新西兰的经济是出口导向型经济,交易上通常会察看贸易差额来确定国际上对新西兰生产的产品的需求。

哪些因素使纽元发生变动?

经济增长

积极的GDP增长反映了新西兰经济状况良好,这将增加对纽元的需求。负面的GDP增长数据表明该国经济表现不良,将压低对纽元的需求。

出口激增

对新西兰产品的需求高通常意味着GDP高,进而促使纽元升值。相反,低出口量对GDP的贡献较小,将导致纽元贬值。

商品价格上涨

商品价格上涨导致新西兰出口总值提高,进而推升GDP。商品价格下降则导致出口总值减少,将拉低GDP。

纽元/美元交易

纽元/美元交易头寸是以美元衡量的。

每点价值根据纽元/美元的现价计算(小数点后四位为一点)。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于10万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于1万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果纽元/美元当前汇率是0.7000,杠杆比例为100:1,

交易10万纽元头寸需要700美元。交易1万纽元头寸需要70美元。

看到了吧,因为纽元的价值低于美元,在所有主要货币中,它需要的保证金数量最少。这意味着进行纽元交易比较便宜。

纽元/美元交易技巧

新西兰强势经济报告将促使纽元升值。如果经济报告良好的几率较大,这意味着应该做纽元/美元多头。

经济报告表现不良,则将导致纽元贬值。如果未来的经济报告低于预期,这意味着应做纽元/美元空头。

除了关注经济报告,注意商品价格行为也可以为纽元/美元交易提供信号。

大多数情况下,高风险资产需求强时,商品价格上涨。这时,投资者将把他们的资金投入高收益资产,如黄金和其他商品,卖出低收益的美元。因此以商品为基础的纽元将较避险天堂美元大幅上涨。

另一方面,当风险规避迫使投资者逃向避险天堂时,纽元较美元贬值。

同澳大利亚一样,纽元是进行套利交易的绝佳候选人之一。套利交易涉及买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币,新西兰较高的利率支持率纽元套利交易。