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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 8 of 10

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New Zealand

If you’ve seen the Lord of the Rings, then you probably know that Middle Earth is located somewhere along the hills of New Zealand.

More than being home to Frodo Baggins and his hobbit friends, New Zealand is also one of Australia’s next-door neighbors in Oceania, the Southern region of the Pacific Ocean.

The country is made up of two main islands, the North Island and the South Island, and several smaller islands.

Famous for hosting a larger population of sheep than people, New Zealand is home to about four million residents. To put that into perspective, New York alone had a population of 8.4 million people in 2011.

New Zealand is also known as Aotearoa, which means “Land of the Long White Cloud” in Maori, one of the major languages in the country.

New Zealand

New Zealand: Facts, Figures, and Features

New Zealand Flag

  • Neighbors: Australia, Fiji, Tonga
  • Size: 104,483 square miles
  • Population: 4,537,081 (123rd)
  • Density: 42.7 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Wellington (city population 179,466)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government: Prime Minister John Key
  • Currency: New Zealand dollar (NZD)
  • Main Imports: machinery and equipment, vehicles and aircraft, petroleum, electronics, textiles, plastics
  • Main Exports: Russell Crowe, Ores and metals; wool, food and live animals; fuels, transport machinery and equipment
  • Import Partners: China 16.4%, Australia 15.2%, US 9,3%, Japan 6.5%, Singapore 4.8%, Germany 4.4%
  • Export Partners: Australia 21.1%, China 15%, US 9%, Japan 7%
  • Time Zone: GMT +12
  • Website: http://www.newzealand.govt.nz

Economic Overview

With its teeny-tiny population, New Zealand’s economy is also relatively small. Its GDP, which is valued at 123 billion USD in 2011, ranks 65th among the world economies. But don’t underestimate New Zealand… This country makes up for its size by being a strong player in trade!

Their economic activity is largely dependent on trade, mostly with the Land Down Under (Australia), the Land of the Rising Sun (Japan), and Uncle Sam (U.S.). It is an export-driven economy, with its main exports such as ores, metals, and wool comprising a third of its GDP. It also exports much of its cattle and dairy products. Angus beef sound familiar to you?

Its primary industries are agriculture and tourism, and they only have small manufacturing and technology sectors. Because of that, its imports from other countries comprise mostly of heavy machinery, equipment, vehicles, and electronic products.

Since the country has removed many barriers to foreign investment, the World Bank has praised New Zealand for being one of the most business-friendly countries in the world, second to Singapore.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is in charge of the monetary and fiscal policy of the nation. Currently headed by Governor Alan Bollard, the RBNZ holds monetary policy meetings eight times a year. The RBNZ is tasked with maintaining price stability, setting interest rates, and monitoring output and exchange rates.

To achieve price stability, the RBNZ must ensure that annual inflation meets the 1.5% central bank target… otherwise the government has the right to kick the RBNZ Governor out of office (We’re not kidding).

The RBNZ has the following tools in its monetary policy arsenal:

The official cash rate (OCR), which affects short-term interest rates, is set by the RBNZ Governor. By lending 25 basis points above this rate and borrowing at 25 basis points below the OCR to commercial banks, the central bank is able to control the interest rates offered to individuals and businesses.

Open market operations are used to meet the cash target or the amount of reserves parked in commercial banks. By forecasting the cash target daily, the RBNZ is able to calculate how much money to inject in the economy in order to meet the target.

Getting to Know the NZD

The New Zealand dollar is nicknamed “Kiwi.”It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, wait, it’s really a bird. The Kiwi also happens to be the national symbol for New Zealand… but let’s focus on the Kiwi as a currency and its interesting characteristics.

Show me the commodities!

Since New Zealand’s economy is mostly dependent on its exports of commodities and agricultural products, the overall economic performance of the region is linked to commodity prices.

If commodity prices rise, then the amount of money paid for New Zealand’s exports also rises, which then makes a larger contribution to the country’s GDP. Since a higher GDP reflects a strong economic performance, it could lead to an appreciation of the Kiwi.

Conversely, falling commodity prices result to lower monetary value of exports, making a smaller contribution to GDP. A lower GDP could then cause the Kiwi to depreciate.

I move hand-in-hand with the AUD

Since Australia is New Zealand’s number one trade partner, the economic performance of Australia has a huge impact on New Zealand’s.

For instance, when the Australian economy does well, Australian firms pump up their importing activities and guess who benefits from that? New Zealand, of course!

…and, just like the AUD, I enjoy carry trades!

Just like Australia, New Zealand enjoys higher interest rates compared to other major economies, such as the U.S., the U.K., or Japan.

Interest rate differentials between economies often serve as indicators of money flows. Since investors prefer to receive higher returns, they’d sell lower-yielding investments in exchange for higher-yielding assets or currencies. In other words, the higher the interest rate, the more money flows in.

I’d like more migration, please.

Because New Zealand’s population is less than half the number of people living in New York, an increase in migration into the country has a huge effect on the economy. This is because as the population grows, the demand for goods and overall consumption increases.

Oh, I’m weather-sensitive too.

New Zealand’s economy is also largely driven by its agricultural industry, which means that severe weather conditions such as droughts have a huge negative impact on their entire economy. Those heat waves are also prevalent in Australia, which is more frequented by forest fires, costing close to 1% of its GDP in damages. This doesn’t do the NZD any good…

Important Economic Indicators for the NZD

Gross Domestic Product – Just like any other nation, the gross domestic product (GDP) serves as an economic report card for New Zealand. By serving as a gauge of overall economic performance for the New Zealand, it influences the demand for the NZD.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The consumer price index measures the change in price levels. As a measure of inflation, it is closely watched by the RBNZ in determining changes in monetary policy. They’re supposed to maintain price stability, remember?

Balance of Trade – Since New Zealand is an export-driven economy, traders often take a look at their trade balance to gauge the international demand for New Zealand’s products.

What Moves the NZD?

Economic Growth

Positive GDP growth reflects the strong economic standing of New Zealand, boosting demand for its currency. Negative GDP growth highlights the poor economic performance of the country, dampening demand for the NZD.

Surge in Exports

Higher demand for New Zealand’s products often results to a higher GDP, which then boosts the NZD. In contrast, lower exports make a smaller contribution to GDP, causing the NZD’s value to fall.

Rising Commodity Prices

Increasing commodity prices causes the monetary value of New Zealand’s exports to rise, pushing its GDP higher. Falling commodity prices, on the other hand, cause the monetary value of exports to fall, dragging its GDP down.

Trading NZD/USD

Since the counter currency is the US Dollar, the changes in value are measured in Greenbacks. 

On a 100,000 unit NZD/USD position, each pip movement is worth $10 USD while on a 10,000 NZD/USD position size, each pip movement is worth $1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For instance, if the current NZDUSD rate is 0.7000 and leverage is 100:1, 700 USD in available margin is required for a 100,000 NZD position. A 10,000 NZD position requires 70 USD in available margin.

You see, because of the Kiwi’s relatively low value against the U.S. dollar, it requires the least amount of available margin among the other majors. That means it’s cheaper to trade the Kiwi!

NZD/USD Trade Tactics

Strong economic reports from New Zealand result to an appreciation of the NZD so if there’s a good chance that an economic release could beat the consensus, it could be a sign to go long NZD/USD.

Weak economic reports, on the other hand, push the NZD down. If an upcoming report is likely to come in weaker than expected, it could be a chance to short NZD/USD.

Aside from watching economic reports, taking note of commodity price behavior could also serve as an influence on  NZD/USD price action.

In recent history, commodity prices tend to surge when demand for riskier assets is also strong. During these times, investors place their money in higher-yielding assets such as gold and other commodities and sell the lower-yielding U.S. dollar. As a result, the commodity-based Kiwi gains strongly against the safe-haven US.. dollar.

On the other hand, when risk aversion forces investors to flee back to the safe-havens, the NZD edges lower against the USD.

Just like the AUD, the NZD is also a good candidate for carry trade. Since carry trades involve buying of a currency with high interest rates and selling of a currency with low interest rates, New Zealand’s relatively high interest rate provides support for the NZD.

Kiwis

新西兰

如果你看过《指环王》,你也许知道中土世界是在新西兰的山中取景的。

除了是巴金斯(Frobo Baggins)和他的霍比特朋友的故乡,新西兰还是澳大利亚在大洋洲的邻国之一,位于太平洋南部。

该国主要由两个岛屿组成,北岛和南岛,此外还有一些小岛。

以羊比人多而闻名的新西兰有400万居民。为了让你更清楚这代表了什么,我们举个例子,2011年仅纽约的人口就有840万。

新西兰也被称为Aotearoa,毛利语的意思为“长白云之乡”。毛利语是新西兰的主要语言之一。

新西兰:事实、数据和特点

邻国:澳大利亚、斐济、汤加

面积:104,454平方英里

人口:4,268,600

人口密度:40.9每平方公里

首都:惠灵顿

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理约翰?基

货币:新西兰元(NZD)

主要进口:机械和设备、车辆和飞机、试验品、石油、电子产品、纺织品、塑料

主要出口:克罗(Russell Crowe)、矿石和金属、羊毛。食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械及设备

进口伙伴:德国13.5%、美国10.2%、法国8.1%、荷兰6.3%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.7%

出口伙伴:美国15.7%、德国10.5%、法国9.5%、荷兰6.9%、爱尔兰6.5%、比利时5.6%、西班牙4.4%、意大利4.4%

时区:东12区

网站:http://www.newzealand.govt.nz

经济概览

由于人口很少,新西兰的经济量也较小。2011年新西兰的GDP为1230亿美元,在全球所有经济体中排名65。但是不要低估新西兰,它在世界贸易中扮演着十分重要的角色。

新西兰的经济活动主要依靠贸易,特别是和南方大陆(澳大利亚)、旭日之国(日本)、及山姆大叔(美国)之间贸易。其经济是出口导向型经济,主要出口商品,如矿石、金属和羊毛占了新西兰GDP的三分之一。它也出口牛和奶制品。安格斯牛肉听起来耳熟吗?

新西兰的主要产业包括农业和旅游业,而其制造业和技术部门很小。因此,它从其他国家进口的商品包括重型机械、设备、车辆和电子制品。

自从新西兰取消了许多限制外国投资壁垒,世界银行称赞新西兰为世界上仅次于新加坡的商业友好国家。

货币和财政政策

新西兰联储(新西兰央行)掌管该国的货币和财政政策。目前该行行长是伯纳德,新西兰联储每年召开8次货币政策会议。该央行的任务是维持物价稳定,确定利率和监控产出及汇率。为了保持物价稳定,新西兰联储要确保年通胀率达到央行设定的1.5%的标准,否则政府有权开掉新西兰储备银行的行长(我们不是开玩笑的)。

新西兰联储有以下几个货币政策工具:

官方贴现利率由新西兰联储主席确定,将会影响短期利率水平。以高于官方贴现利率25点借出,以低于该利率25点借入,央行可以调控个人和企业的利率。

公开市场操作是为了达到现金目标或在商业银行中保管的储备金数量。通过每天预测现金目标,新西兰联储可以计算要向经济中注入多少资金才能达到其目标。

了解纽元

新西兰元(纽元)的昵称是“几维”。它是一种鸟。几维是新西兰的象征……但是让我们来看看被称为几维的该国货币和它有趣的特征。

让我看看这些商品!

由于新西兰的经济依靠商品和农产品出口,因此该国的经济表现和商品价格密切相关。

如果商品价格上涨,新西兰出口商品的价格相应增加,这将为该国贡献更多的GDP。高GDP表明经济表现良好,这将导致纽元升值。

相反,商品价格下降意味着出口总价下降,对GDP的贡献变小。低GDP将导致纽元贬值。

我与澳元携手并进

因为澳大利亚是新西兰的头号贸易伙伴,因此澳大利亚的经济表现对新西兰经济的影响重大。

例如,澳大利亚经济表现良好时,澳大利亚企业将增加进口活动,猜猜谁会从中受益呢?当然是新西兰!

……与澳元一样,我享受套利交易!

同澳大利亚一样,与其他经济体,如美国、英国、日本相比,新西兰利率较高。

经济体之间的利率差异是资金流动的指示器。由于投资者青睐高收益,因此,他们卖掉低收益投资,买入高收益资产或货币。换句话说,利率越高,流入资金越高。

我想要更多的移民。

因为新西兰的人口比纽约人口的一半还要少,移民的增加对该国经济的影响巨大。这是因为人口增加,对商品的需求和消费增加了。

我也对天气状况很敏感。

新西兰的经济很大程度上受农业的影响,这意味着严峻的天气状况,如干旱,对该国经济的负面影响很大。热浪同样会影响澳大利亚,并导致森林火灾,在成其GDP1%的损失。这对新西兰没有什么好处。

与纽元相关的重要经济指标

国内生产总值(GDP):同其他国家一样,GDP是新西兰经济报告中的一环。GDP用以衡量新西兰经济整体表现,会对纽元需求造成影响。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI衡量价格水平的变化。作为衡量通胀的指数,它受到新西兰联储的密切关注,以此来确定货币政策的变化。它的目的是保持物价稳定,记得吗?

贸易差额:新西兰的经济是出口导向型经济,交易上通常会察看贸易差额来确定国际上对新西兰生产的产品的需求。

哪些因素使纽元发生变动?

经济增长

积极的GDP增长反映了新西兰经济状况良好,这将增加对纽元的需求。负面的GDP增长数据表明该国经济表现不良,将压低对纽元的需求。

出口激增

对新西兰产品的需求高通常意味着GDP高,进而促使纽元升值。相反,低出口量对GDP的贡献较小,将导致纽元贬值。

商品价格上涨

商品价格上涨导致新西兰出口总值提高,进而推升GDP。商品价格下降则导致出口总值减少,将拉低GDP。

纽元/美元交易

纽元/美元交易头寸是以美元衡量的。

每点价值根据纽元/美元的现价计算(小数点后四位为一点)。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于10万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于1万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果纽元/美元当前汇率是0.7000,杠杆比例为100:1,

交易10万纽元头寸需要700美元。交易1万纽元头寸需要70美元。

看到了吧,因为纽元的价值低于美元,在所有主要货币中,它需要的保证金数量最少。这意味着进行纽元交易比较便宜。

纽元/美元交易技巧

新西兰强势经济报告将促使纽元升值。如果经济报告良好的几率较大,这意味着应该做纽元/美元多头。

经济报告表现不良,则将导致纽元贬值。如果未来的经济报告低于预期,这意味着应做纽元/美元空头。

除了关注经济报告,注意商品价格行为也可以为纽元/美元交易提供信号。

大多数情况下,高风险资产需求强时,商品价格上涨。这时,投资者将把他们的资金投入高收益资产,如黄金和其他商品,卖出低收益的美元。因此以商品为基础的纽元将较避险天堂美元大幅上涨。

另一方面,当风险规避迫使投资者逃向避险天堂时,纽元较美元贬值。

同澳大利亚一样,纽元是进行套利交易的绝佳候选人之一。套利交易涉及买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币,新西兰较高的利率支持率纽元套利交易。