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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 7 of 10

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Australia

Officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, Australia could be found somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, just southeast of Asia.

Considered as the world’s biggest island, Australia is the only country on earth that governs an entire continent!

Before the coming of settlers from Europe in 1788, Aboriginal people inhabited most of the country.

Since then, people from all over the world have migrated to Australia, which has made it one of the most culturally diverse countries in the world. Now, Australia is home to people from 200 different countries.

Lastly, and probably most importantly, Australia is known for producing the meanest and most hardcore actors of all time like Mel Gibson, the Braveheart; Hugh Jackman, the Wolverine; and the legendary Heath Ledger, the Joker!

To add to that, they also have mech-kangaroos, battle tank armadillos, and bomber pelicans. You can see how the rest of the world really had no choice but to name an entire continent after them.

Australia

Australia: Facts, Figures, and Features

Australia Flag

  • Neighbors: New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
  • Size: 2,969,907 square miles
  • Density: 7.3 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Canberra (population 358,222)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government: Prime Minister Tony Abbott
  • Currency: Australia dollar (AUD)
  • Main Imports: Machinery and transportation, electrical and telecommunications equipment; crude oil and petroleum products
  • Main Exports: Ores and metals; wool, food and live animals; fuels, transport machinery and equipment, Hugh Jackman, Nicole Kidman, Heath Ledger
  • Import Partners: China 18.4%, U.S. 11.7%, Japan 7.9%, Singapore 6%, Germany 4.6%, Thailand 4.2%, South Korea 4.1%
  • Export Partners: China 29.5%, Japan 19.3%, South Korea 8%, India 4.9%
  • Time Zone: GMT +10
  • Website: http://www.australia.gov.au

Economic Overview

Compared to G7 nations, Australia’s overall economy is relatively small. According to the World Bank, however, on a per person basis, its GDP is even higher than the U.K., Germany and even the U.S.!

In the past fifteen years or so, Australia’s economy has grown an average of 3.6% annually, well above the 2.5% world norm. No wonder it ranked third overall in the Legatum Institute’s 2011 Prosperity Index!

Australia’s economy is highly service oriented, with over 70% of its GDP coming from industries such as finance, education, and tourism.

Despite having a very robust export industry and stellar growth, Australia has been notoriously famous for consistently having a high current account deficit. This means that Australia is using up more resources from other economies to satisfy its own domestic consumption.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the main governing body of Australia when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy. The RBA’s aim is three-fold:

  1. Keep exchange rates stable
  2. Ensure growth
  3. Maintain full employment

In order to do this, the bank believes that the country’s annual inflation rate must be kept within 2-3%. By keeping a tight rein on inflation, the value of their domestic currency is secured, which will eventually lead to sustainable economic growth.

How does the RBA make sure inflation is controlled? Two ways: adjusting the cash rate and conducting open market operations.

The cash rate is the interest rate charged by lending banks on overnight loans to other financial institutions.

Open market operations, on the other hand, is the way the RBA controls money supply through the buying and selling of government loans or other financial assets. With the exception of January, the RBA meets monthly to discuss what changes it will make to monetary policy.

To make this easier to swallow, take this simple example. Let’s say that inflation in Australia is increasing much faster than what the bank wants. In order to suppress the high inflation rate, the bank decides to raise the cash rate, which will effectively increase the cost of borrowing by…. uh, borrowers.

Naturally, this move will tone down lending, lessening the overall money in circulation. And basic supply and demand tells us that the scarcer something is, the more valuable it is!

Getting to Know the AUD

Even though they’ve got their seasons mixed up, the Australians are always up bright and early to play. Well, this is mostly because the Australian market is the first to open every week! Just like the people inhabiting the place, Australia’s local currency, the AUD, is called the Aussie.

I’m called a commodity dollar for a reason…

One important characteristic of the AUD is that it has a high positive correlation with gold prices. The reason behind this is that Australia is the third biggest gold-digger… errr, gold producer in the world. As a result, whenever the price of gold rises or falls, the AUD goes along for the ride.

… and I’m one of the best candidates for carry trade.

Among the major currencies, the AUD has been known for having the a high interest rate. This makes it a favorite for carry trade. Carry trade is the practice of buying a currency with a high interest rate in exchange for a currency with a lower interest rate.

I’m only awake a couple of hours a day…

Most of the AUD’s movement happens during the Asian trading session, the time when economic data from Australia is released.

… but bad weather is one of my worst enemies!

Given the commodity based economy of Australia, unfavorable weather conditions tend to put a serious strain on Australia’s growth, which leads to a sell-off in the AUD.

How severely do weather conditions affect the AUD?

Well, let’s just say that during the Australian drought of 2002, AUD/USD fell to .4770 – that is almost half its current exchange rate!

Important Economic Indicators for Australia

Consumer Price Index – Because the RBA’s primary goal is controlling inflation, the CPI, which measures the overall change in price of consumer goods and services, is closely watched by the bank.

Balance of Trade – Australia has an extremely robust trade sector so currency traders and bank officials alike tend to watch changes in the country’s export and import levels.

Gross Domestic Product – This measures how well Australia’s economy is doing. Positive readings indicate economic growth while negative readings mean economic contraction.

Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate tracks how many people in Australia’s labor force are out of work. The number of people employed, or rather, unemployed in this cause, has a high correlation with economic activity. A person without a job means he has less money available for spending.

What Moves the AUD

Economic and Interest Rate Outlook

The AUD is greatly affected by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy rhetoric, interest rates and domestic economic data.

In trading the AUD, always pay special attention to the interest rate outlook. Comments made by officials from the RBA regarding interest rates, for instance, could create a hefty impact on the AUD.

China’s Economy

For the better part of the last decade, China has been on a roll, posting some massive growth figures. In order to create finished goods, China sources a lot of its raw materials like coal and iron ore, from Australia.

For China to buy raw materials from Australia, it must first need to exchange its local currency for the AUD. This means that increased demand for Chinese goods tend to prop up the AUD’s value.

Likewise, a decline in demand for Chinese products could lead to a fall in the AUD’s value.

New Zealand Data

To a lesser extent, data from New Zealand influences the AUD’s price action. Take note that New Zealand’s economy is very similar to Australia, which makes their currency positively correlated.

In fact, the relationship of the two countries is sometimes described as “Trans-Tasman” to show how closely tied their economies are and to indicate the existence of the Tasman Sea sitting right between them.

With that said, it is important to be aware of important upcoming data from New Zealand as it could indirectly cause the AUD to move.

Trading AUD/USD

AUD/USD is traded in amounts denominated in AUD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 AUD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 AUD.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of AUD/USD (that’s 0.0001) by the AUD/USD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in U.S. dollars. For example, if the current AUD/USD rate is 0.9000 and the leverage is 100:1, 900 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade on standard lot of 100,000 AUD. However, as AUD/USD rises, a larger available margin in USD is required. Conversely, the lower AUD/USD rate is, the less required available margin is needed.

AUD/USD Trading Tactics

Since the AUD is one of the best candidates for carry trade, which is the buying of a currency with high interest rates and the selling of a currency with low interest rates, AUD/USD is highly affected by crosses.

How can you use this to your advantage?

Well, if you see a break of a significant technical support level in AUD/JPY, that could be a good sign to sell AUD/USD!

Another thing to consider when trading AUDUSD is data coming out from New Zealand. Because of Australia’s nearness and trade relations with New Zealand, positive economic data from New Zealand usually helps push the AUD’s value up.

This means that better-than-expected New Zealand economic reports could be seen as a good signal to buy the AUD. Conversely, poor economic data from New Zealand could be a reason to sell the AUD.

Lastly, take some time to look at how commodity-prices, especially gold are doing. More often than not, the price of gold leads the AUD.

This means that whenever the gold rises in value, AUD/USD could rally soon after! Of course, when the value of gold falls, the AUD also tends follows suit.

Australian

澳大利亚

澳大利亚,官方名称澳大利亚联邦,位于南半球,亚洲东南方。

澳大利亚是世界上最大的岛,也是世界上唯一一个占据了整块大陆的国家。

在1788年欧洲人来澳大利亚定居前,土著居民占据了该国的大部分区域。

自1788年后,世界各地的人移民到澳大利亚,使其成为了世界上文化最多样的国家之一。现在,澳大利亚人来自于200个不同的国家和地区。

最后,也是最重要的一点,澳大利亚因出十分出色、骨灰级演员而闻名于世,这些演员包括《勇敢的心中》的吉布森(Mel Gibson),《金刚狼》中杰克曼(Hugh Jackman),《小丑》中的莱杰(Health Ledger)。

澳大利亚:事实、数据和特点

邻国:新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、印度尼西亚

面积:2,969,907平方英里

人口密度:7.3人每平方英里

首都:堪培拉(人口358,222)

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)

货币:澳大利亚元(AUD)

主要进口:机械和运输工具、电流和通信设备、原油和石油制品

主要出口:矿石和金属、食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械设备、杰克曼(Hugh Jackman)、基德曼(Nicole Kidman)、莱杰(Health Ledger)

进口伙伴:中国19.2%、美国12.1%、日本7.8%、新加坡5.3%、德国5.1%

出口伙伴:中国26.4%、日本19.1%、韩国9.2%、印度6.4%、台湾3.7%

时区:东十区

网站:http://www.australia.gov.au

经济概况

与G7国家相比,澳大利亚的经济相对较小。然而,根据世界银行公布的数据,以个人为基准,澳大利亚的甚至比英国、德国,甚至美国还要高!

在过去的15年间,澳大利亚经济年平均增长水平为3.6%,比世界基准2.5%要高。 难怪它在列格坦研究所2011繁荣指数中名列第三!

澳大利亚的经济是以服务型为导向的, 其超过70%来源于金融、教育、旅游等部门。

尽管出口产业强健,增长较快,澳大利亚却因持续出现经常帐赤字而臭名远扬。这意味着澳大利亚用尽了其他经济体的大量资源来满足本国的消费需求。

货币和财政政策

澳洲联储是澳大利亚货币政策的主管部门。澳洲联储的目的有三重:

1. 保持汇率稳定

2. 确保增长

3. 维持完全就业

为了达到这些目标,澳洲联储认为该国的通货膨胀率必须保持在2%到3%之间。通过严格控制通胀的程度,该国货币的价格就能维持稳定,进而确保经济的稳固增长。

澳洲联储如何控制通胀呢?两种方法:调整现钞汇率和公开市场操作。

现钞汇率是银行向其他金融机构提供隔夜借款所收的利率。

公开市场操作则是澳洲联储通过买卖政府贷款和其他金融资产来控制资金供给。除了1月,澳洲联储每月举行例会讨论货币政策的变动。

为了让这个更容易理解,我们来举个例子。如果澳大利亚的通货膨胀率比联储想要的上升的快,为了打压高通胀率,澳洲联储决定提高现钞汇率,从而达到增加借款成本的目的。

通常,这个做法会减少借贷,使流通中的资金数量减少。基本供求告诉我们东西越少,则价格越高。

了解澳元

尽管澳大利亚人会弄混季节,但他们都起得很早,并开始进入交易。这是因为澳大利亚市场是每周最先开市的一个。同住在那的人一样,澳大利亚本国的货币澳元也叫做澳洲人( Aussie)。

我被叫做商品美元是有原因的……

澳元的一个重要特点就是它与金价的相关度很高。其中的原因是澳大利亚是最大的产金国。因此,只要金价出现起伏,澳元也会随之变动。

……我是做套利交易的重要候选人之一。

在主要货币中,澳元因有高利率而闻名。这使它成为套利交易的最爱之一。套利交易是用低利率货币买入高利率货币的做法。

在一天中我只有几个小时是醒着的……

澳元变动主要出现在亚洲交易时段,澳大利亚相关数据公布时。

……天气不好是我最大的敌人!

澳大利亚以商品经济为主,糟糕的天气状况会限制澳大利亚经济的增长,导致投资者卖空澳元。

天气状况对澳元的影响有多大呢?

在2002年澳大利亚旱灾期间,澳元/美元下跌至0.4770——那几乎是它现有汇率的一半。

澳大利亚重要的经济数据

消费者物价指数:因为澳洲联储最主要的目标是控制通胀,因此衡量商品和服务价格变动的消费者物价指数受到了澳洲联储的紧密监控。

贸易差额:澳大利亚交易部门十分活跃,因此货币交易商和银行官员都十分关注该国进出口水平的变化。

国内生产总值:这项指标衡量澳大利亚的经济状况。正读数代表经济增长,负读数代表经济紧缩。

失业率:失业率追踪澳大利亚劳动力中有多少人没有工作。失业人数与经济活动的表现息息相关。一个人没有工作意味着他用来消费的钱少了。

哪些因素影响澳元的走势

经济和利率前景

澳元受宏观经济因素,如货币政策、利率和国内经济数据的影响很大。

进行澳元交易,要特别注意利率变动前景。澳洲联储官员与利率相关的言论将对澳元造成很到影响。

中国的经济状况

在过去近10年间,中国运气极佳,出现了大幅的增长数据。为了生产产品,中国从澳大利亚进口了大量的原材料,如煤,铁矿石等。

中国要从澳大利亚购入原材料,它必须先将其货币兑换为澳元。这意味着中国商品的需求增加降抬高澳元的价格。

同样地,中国商品的需求减少将导致澳元走跌。

新西兰数据

在较小程度上,新西兰经济数据也会影响澳元的价格行为。注意,新西兰的经济与澳大利亚的经济很相像,这使他们的货币正向相关。

事实上,两国之间的关系有时被称作“泛塔斯曼”,通过暗指两国之间的塔斯曼海来显示两国之间联系的紧密程度。

因此要关注新西兰重要的经济数据,因为它会影响澳元的走势。

澳元/美元交易

澳元/美元的交易数量是以澳元衡量的。一标准手是10万澳元,迷你手是1万澳元。

每点价值以美元标价,以澳元/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果澳元/美元当前汇率是0.9000,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为900美元。不过,随着澳元/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

澳元/美元交易技巧

因为澳元是套利交易,即买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币的绝佳候选人之一,澳元/美元手交叉货币的影响很大。

你要如何利用这点呢?

如果你发现澳元/日元突破了一个重要的技术支撑水平,就意味着你应卖空澳元/美元了。

进行澳元/美元交易要考虑的另一点就是新西兰的经济数据。因为澳大利亚和新西兰相邻,且有相关贸易关系,因此积极的新西兰经济数据将有助于推动澳元价格的上涨。

这意味着超预期的新西兰经济报告可以被看作是买入澳元的信号。相反,新西兰经济数据表现不佳则意味着应该要卖出澳元。

最后,花点时间看看商品价格,特别是金价的变动。多数情况下,金价的变动将引导澳元价格的变动。

这意味着一旦金价上升,澳元/美元不久后也会上涨!当然,若金价下跌,澳元也会走跌。