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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 6 of 10

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Canada

Oh Canada… Uncle Sam’s friendly, environment-loving, French-influenced, semi-frozen buddy up north. It is a place known to have created some of the most amazing things in the world, such as basketball, baseball, maple syrup, and Smarties.

Canada, whose geographical area takes up most of North America, extends from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the east to the Pacific Ocean. It is composed of ten provinces and three territories, and is considered as one of the world’s most developed countries.

In terms of land mass, Canada is numero dos in the world right after Russia! Given its sheer size and contributions to the world, you can just imagine how Canada and its domestic currency, the Canadian dollar, are important to forex trading.

Canada

Canada: Facts, Figures, and Features

Canada Flag

  • Neighbors: United States of America
  • Size: 3,854,085 square miles
  • Population: 35,427,524
  • Density: 8.3 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Ottawa
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II, represented by Governor-General David Lloyd Johnston
  • Prime Minister: Stephen Harper
  • Currency: Canadian dollar (CAD)
  • Main Imports: machinery and equipment, motor vehicles and parts, electronics, crude oil, chemicals, electricity, durable consumer goods
  • Main Exports: Justin Bieber, motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment, electronics, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, wood pulp, timber, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, aluminium, Steve Nash, Sidney Crosby
  • Imports Partners: U.S. 50.6%, China 11%, Mexico 5.5%
  • Exports Partners: U.S. 74.5%, China 4.3%, UK 4.1%
  • Time Zones: GMT -8, GMT -7, GMT -6, GMT -5, GMT -4
  • Website: http://www.canada.gc.ca/home.html

Economic Overview

Canada is considered as a resource-based country, which basically means that most of the economic growth it experienced early on came from the utilization and export of its own natural resources.

According to the IMF, Canada’s economy is the tenth largest in the world, making it part of the world’s G8. It ranks as the seventh biggest producer of gold and the seventh largest producer of black crack (oil).

Despite its robust industrial and manufacturing industry, much of Canada’s GDP actually comes from its service sector. Its advanced services sector employs three out of every four working Canadians and account for about 70% of the country’s GDP. Next time you meet a Canadian, go ahead and make a bet with him that he works in the services industry. More often than not, you’ll win!

Canada’s economy really got going in January of 1989, when the Free Trade Agreement came into effect. The agreement basically removed all the tariffs (that is the tax imposed on trade) between the US and Canada. In effect, Canada now exports over 70% of its goods to the US.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Bank of Canada (BOC) is the main governing body when it comes to determining the country’s monetary policy. Decisions on the monetary policy are made by Governing Council, which is made up of the bank’s governor, the senior deputy and four other deputy governors.

Unlike most other central banks, the BOC doesn’t have a set time to make changes on its policies. The council meets every single working day and can alter monetary policy to their liking at any time.

The bank’s basic mandate is similar to other central banks in that they aim to make sure that the Canadian dollar’s value is stable and that the country’s inflation rate is within their 1-3% target. The BOC does this through open market operations and constant adjustment of the bank rate.

The BOC implements its open market operations by using a method called the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). The LVTS enables commercial banks all over Canada to borrow and lend money to each other so that they could go about their daily operations. Now, the interest rate charged on these transactions is called the bank rate. By altering the bank rate, the BOC can basically control the flow of money in the economy.

To illustrate this, let’s say the bank rate is set at 2.00%. In one of its meetings, the BOC realizes that the CAD is losing value much faster than expected, which is causing businesses to increase the prices of goods they sell and the services they offer. The BOC then decides to raise the bank rate to 2.50%.

By hiking the bank rate, the interest needed to be paid to lenders increases, in turn, reduces the likelihood of banks, businesses and consumers of taking additional debt. Now, since there is less money in the pockets of consumers, the chance of them spending is decreased, preventing any further inflation. What business in their right mind would increase prices when nobody is buying, right?

Getting to Know the CAD

You might be wondering why the CAD is nicknamed after Canada’s national bird, the Loonie… Well, that’s because that’s the engraved design on Canada’s coins! Check out these other cool properties of the Loonie:

The Black Crack and Me

Historically, the price of black crack has been highly correlated with the USD/CAD. The general rule is that whenever oil prices start climbing, the CAD usually follows. If the price of oil is projected to increase over the next couple of years, then you’d want to go sell the USD/CAD!

My work hours are short…

The USD/CAD has been known to move in tight ranges for the most part of the day. It is only when U.S. traders are eating their Cheerios during the overlap of the European trading session and the US trading session that the pair begins to move.

…unlike my B.F.F., the USD…

A key factor to look at when trading the USD/CAD is that its direction is closely tied to the U.S. economy. Remember, more than being close neighbors, the U.S. and Canada engage in heavy trade with each other. When the U.S. economy experiences robust growth, the Canadian economy is usually just right behind it! So whenever you decide to trade the CAD, take some time off to see how well (or poorly) the U.S. is doing.

…but I’m still feisty during the US session.

The CAD usually doesn’t start moving until the U.S. trading session, around 1:00 pm GMT. The CAD offers little movement during the Asian trading session and the morning European trading session.

Important Economic Indicators for the CAD

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Similar to other central banks, the Bank of Canada’s objective is to make sure that inflation does not get out of hand. Since the consumer price index tracks the increase (or decrease) in the prices of consumer goods and services, the report is closely watched by currency traders.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The GDP is the broadest measure of Canada’s economic activity. It reveals whether the country is growing or not.

Trade Balance – Just like other commodity-based countries, Canada’s economy is highly susceptible to changes in its export and import activities.

Ivey Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) – The PMI is a survey designed to see whether businesses are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy. A reading above base line 50.0 means that conditions in the business sector is growing while a reading below 50.0 indicates otherwise.

What Moves the CAD?

U.S. Economic Data

U.S. economic data usually prints roughly at the same time as Canadian data. On the one hand, the negative data from the US coupled with positive data from Canada could lead to a massive drop in the USD/CAD’s value. On the other hand, positive U.S. data and poor Canadian data could send the USD/CAD soaring high!

Mergers and Acquisitions

Because of the proximity between the U.S. and Canada, company mergers and acquisitions happen quite often. These cause a huge amount of money to flow between the two countries, which create a significant effect on the foreign exchange market.

For example, in order for a U.S. company to buy out a Canadian company, it must first exchange it’s U.S. dollars to Canadian dollars to complete the transaction. Imagine the amount of money that flows through the foreign exchange market just to seal the deal!

Trading the USD/CAD

USD/CAD is traded in amounts denominated in USD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 USD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 USD.

The pip value, which is denominated in Canadian dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of USD/CAD (that’s 0.0001) by USD/CAD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in Canadian dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 CAD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 CAD. For example, if the current exchange rate of USD/CAD is 1.1000 and you want to trade one standard lot, then one pip would equate to 9.90 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. With a leverage of 100:1, 1,000 USD is needed to trade 100,000 USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Trading Tactics

Since USD/CAD is only active during the U.S. trading session, the pair is highly susceptible to fake outs during the other two trading sessions. This means that a break in a significant support level in the USD/CAD during the morning European trading session would, more often than not, simply be a fake out.

Watching the differences in the results of economic data between the U.S. and Canada is also a great practice to determine where the USD/CAD is headed. Because both and US and Canadian data are released just a few hours or minutes apart, variances in results tend to result in exaggerated one directional moves.

For instance, negative US data coupled with positive Canadian data would be a good reason to sell USD/CAD.

Lastly, beyond looking at economic data, spending some time to analyze oil price behavior would help a lot in trading the CAD.

Since Canada is considered as one of the world’s major black crack producers, changes in its price create quite a hefty impact in the CAD’s value. In fact, since 1988, the exchange rate of USD/CAD and the price of oil have been inversely correlated by as much as 68%.

How can you use this to your advantage? Well, if you notice that over time that oil prices at your local gasoline station are rising, it could give you the additional confirmation you need to short the USD/CAD.

Canadians

加拿大

加拿大……山姆大叔的好朋友、环境优美、深受法国影响、一半地区为冰冻区。这里创造了一些世界上最让人惊喜的事物,如篮球、棒球、枫糖浆和聪明豆。

加拿大占据了北美洲大部,从大西洋一直延伸到太平洋。它有10个行省和3个领地组成,是世界上最发达的国家之一。

从陆地面积来讲,加拿大位列世界第二,仅次于俄罗斯!考虑到它的大小和它对世界的贡献,你可以想像一下加拿大和它的货币加元在外汇世界的作用有多重要。

加拿大:事实、数据及特点

邻国:美国

面积:3,855,101平方英里

人口:33,476,688

人口密度:8.3人每平方英里

首都:渥太华

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世,由总督约翰斯顿(David Lloyd Johnson)代表

总理:哈珀(Stephen Harper)

货币:加拿大元(CAD)

主要进口:机械设备、机动车及配件、电子设备、原油、化学品、电力、耐用消费品

主要出口:机动车及配件、工业机械、飞机、通信设备、电子设备、化学品、塑料、化肥、木浆、木材、原油、天然气、电力、铝、纳什(Steve Nash)、克罗斯比(Sidney Crosby)

进口伙伴:美国50.4%、中国11%、墨西哥5.5%

出口伙伴:美国72.3%、日本2.5%

时区:西八区、西七区、西六区、西五区、西四区、

网站:http://www.canada.gc.ca/home.html

经济概况

加拿大是资源型国家,也就是说其经济增长的主要是通过利用和出口其自然资源。

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)有关数据显示,加拿大的经济总量在世界排名第十,这使它成为G8成员国之一。它也是世界第七大产金国和产油国。

尽管工业和制造业强健,加拿大GDP主要来源其服务部门。加拿大四分之三的劳动力就职于其先进的服务部门,每年创造该国GDP70%的产值。下次你看到加拿大人,上前跟他打个赌,赌他是在服务业工作的。大多数情况下你会赢。

加拿大经济真正开始良好运转始于1989年1月,自由贸易区协议生效的时候。这项协议移除了美国和加拿大间所有关税。实际上,加拿大向美国出口了其超过70%的商品。

货币和财政政策

加拿大央行是该国货币政策的主管部门。货币政策的决议由管理委员会制定。管理委员会由银行行长、高级副行长和另外4位副行长构成。与其他央行不同,加拿大央行没有固定的调整政策的时间。管理委员会每天都会开会,随时可以决定改变货币政策。

加拿大央行的指令同其他央行类似,因为他们的目的是确保加元的价格稳定,该国通胀率在1%到3%之内。加拿大央行通过公开市场操作和不断调整银行利率来达成其目标。

加拿大央行实施公开市场操作政策是通过采用大额转账系统(LVTS)实现的。LVTS使加拿大各地的商业银行之间可以通过互相借贷完成日常运营。这些交易的利率被称为银行贴现率。通过改变银行贴现率,加拿大央行可以控制经济中的货币量。

为了让这个更加形象,我们假设银行贴现率是2.00%。在一次例会上,加拿大央行认为加元的贬值速度高于预期,这将导致商品和服务的价格上涨。因此加拿大央行决定将银行贴现率上调至2.50%。

银行贴现率提高,要向贷方偿付的利息就会增加,相反,银行贴现率降低,企业和消费者就会增加贷款额。现在,消费者们口袋里的钱少了,他们消费的几率也就降低了,进一步通胀也会被阻止。头脑清晰的公司都不会在没有人愿意消费时涨价,不是吗?

了解加元

你也许会想为什么加元的别名是加拿大国鸟的名字,卢尼……那是由于在加元硬币上刻着卢尼。让我们来了解一下卢尼的属性:

黑可卡因与我

历史上,黑可卡因的价格与美元/加元的走势相关度很高。通常油价上升,加元随之上涨。如果油价预计在接下来的几年都会增加,那你肯定想赶快去把美元/加元都卖了。

我的工作时间短……

美元/加元走势在一天中的绝大部分时间都保持窄幅调整。只有在美国人早餐时间同欧洲交易时段相重叠时和美国交易时段,该货币对的活动比较活跃。

……与我最好的外国朋友美元不同……

进行美元/加元交易是要注意的关键因素是它的变动方向与美国经济状况的变化密切相关。记住,除了是邻国,美国和加拿大之间的交易量巨大。美国经济繁荣,加拿大经济也会随之繁荣。因此当你打算交易加元时,花点时间看看美国经济状况如何。

……但我在美国交易时段还是很活跃的。

加元在美国交易时段开始前都不会出现明显变动。加元在亚洲交易时段和欧洲交易时段的变动都很小。

与加元变动相关的重要经济指标

消费者物价指数(CPI):同其他央行一样,加拿大央行的目标是控制通货膨胀。由于消费者物价指数追踪商品和服务的价格变动,因此该数据受到货币交易商的紧密关注。

国内生产总值(GDP):GDP是对加拿大整体经济状况的衡量。它反映了经济是否在增长。

贸易差额:同其他以商品交易为基础的国家一样,加拿大的经济易受进出口活动的影响。

Ivey采购经理指数(PMI):PMI是调查的是公司对经济的预期是乐观还是悲观。读数高于50.0的基线代表商业状况在提升,反之亦然。

哪些因素影响加元的变动?

美国经济数据

美国经济数据与加拿大经济数据的公布时间相近。美国报告中消极的数据和加拿大报告中积极的数据将导致美元/加元价格大幅下跌。相反美国报告中积极的数据和加拿大报告中消极的数据将导致美元/加元价格猛涨。

兼并与并购

由于美国和加拿大毗邻,公司之间的兼并和并购十分频繁。这导致大量的资金在两国之间流动,对外汇交易市场带来极大影响。

例如,美国公司为了收购加拿大公司,他必须先将美元转换为加元来完成这项交易。想想搞定这项交易要从外汇市场上流动的资金的数目吧。

美元/加元交易

美元/加元交易数量是以美元衡量的。一标准手是10万美元,迷你手是1万美元。

每点价值以加元度量,以美元/加元现价一点(0.0001)来计算。

收益和损失以加元标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10 加元。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1加元。比如说,美元/加元当前汇率是1.1000,那么,一标准手一点的价值就为6.72美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。在100:1的杠杆下,交易100,000美元的美元/加元,需要1,000美元。

美元/加元交易技巧

因为美元/加元变动只有在美国交易时段最活跃,在另两个交易时段可能会出现假变动。这意味着在欧洲交易时段,若美元/加元走势突破了一个支撑水平,大多数情况下,这仅是个假突破。

查看美国经济数据和加拿大经济数据之间的不同,也是判定美元/加元变动方向的重要步骤。因为美国和加拿大数据的公布时间只相差几个小时或几分钟,它们之间的差异将加大向某个方向的变动程度。

例如,消极的美国数据和积极的加拿大数据将成为卖出美元/加元的一个不错的理由。

最后,除了关注经济数据,花一点时间研究油价变动也将有助于加元交易。

因为加拿大是世界主要产油国之一,油价变动对加元价值的影响很大。事实上,自1988年以来,美元/加元的汇价变化同油价变动之间的逆向相关度达到了68%。

你要怎么利用这点呢?如果你注意到你所在的地方的汽油价格上涨了,你将更确定你可以卖空美元/加元。