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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 4 of 10

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United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is a land of many accents as it is actually composed of four countries – England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

Headed by the Queen, the U.K. is considered a constitutional monarchy, but is governed through a parliamentary system that is based in England’s capital of London.

The U.K. is also part of the European Union. However, the U.K. has refused to join the euro zone and is adamant about using the pound as its currency. Unfortunately, this means that having a Schengen visa won’t let you travel through the U.K., you have to get a separate visa!

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Facts, Figures, and Features

United Kingdom Flag

  • Neighbors: Ireland, Germany, France
  • Size: 94,060 square miles
  • Population: 64,100,000 (22nd)
  • Density: 661.9 people per square mile
  • Capital City: London (population 8,308,000)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government Prime Minister: David Cameron
  • Currency: British Pound (GBP) or sterling
  • Main Imports: Manufactured goods,machinery, fuels, foodstuff
  • Main Exports: Manufactured goods, fuels, chemicals, tobacco, David Beckham, Simon Cowell
  • Imports Partners: Germany 12.6%, China 8%, Netherlands 7.5%, France 5.4%, U.S. 6.5%, Norway 4%, Belgium 4.4%
  • Exports Partners: Germany 11.3%, U.S. 10.5%, Netherlands 8.8%, France, 7.4%, Ireland 6.2%, Belgium 5.1%
  • Time Zone: GMT
  • Website: http://number10.gov.uk

Economic Overview

The U.K. is the world’s seventh largest economy and the third largest in Europe after Germany and France. As far as history shows us, they’re a force to reckon with. After all, it is Britain that started the Industrial Revolution.

The U.K. also had the world’s largest empire back in the day. So for the past 300 years or so, the U.K. has been a relevant world power. Now that’s what you call consistency!

In terms of trade, England is a net importer of goods with a consistent trade deficit. Its largest trading partner is the euro zone, more specifically Germany, which shouldn’t come as a surprise because Germany is a stone’s throw away across the English Channel.

Trade activity with the euro zone accounts for over half of the UK’s trading activity. The U.S., on an individual basis, still remains the U.K.’s largest trading partner.

Not only do the British have cool accents and hotties like Kate Beckinsale, it is also home to arguably the oldest major financial center in the world. We’re talking about London, boys and girls! Having a financial hub like London amplifies England’s place in world trade.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

Now here’s a little bit of trivia for all of you: The oldest central bank in the world is the Bank of England (BOE).

Back in the day, when England was on the verge of economic expansion, government leaders realized that they needed an entity to help facilitate international trade. Enter the Bank of England. In 1694, the BOE was founded to help facilitate trade and growth for England.

Today, the BOE’s main monetary policy objective is that of maintaining price stability while at the same time, fostering growth and employment.

As it is, the BOE is aiming for a target inflation rate of 2.0%, which is measured by the consumer price index (CPI). In order to meet this target, the BOE has been granted the magical power to change interest rates to levels that they believe will allow them to meet this target.

The group within the BOE that is in charge of determining interest rates is the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The MPC holds monthly meetings, which are closely followed for announcements on changes in monetary policy, including changes in the interest rate. Like all other things British, interest rates have a different name in England. In England, the interest rate is called the bank repo rate.

The main policy tools used by the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee are bank repo rate and open market operations.

The bank repo rate is the rate set by the BOE for its own operations in the market to help meet the MPC’s inflation target. Whenever the MPC changes this rate, it affects the rates commercial banks set for their savers and borrowers. This in turn will also affect spending and output in the economy, and eventually costs and prices.

Like other central banks, if the BOE raises the repo rate, they are aiming to curb inflation. On the other hand, if they lower the rate, they are aiming to stimulate growth in the economy.

When the BOE engages in open market operations, the BOE buys and sells GBP denominated treasuries and securities to control the supply of money. This is an alternative method to increase liquidity in the financial markets.

If the BOE feels that there is a need to stimulate the economy, they will “print more money” and inject this into money supply through the purchases of the government and corporate securities.

On the other hand, if the BOE feels like the economy has had enough candy, they will sell more securities, effectively “taking back” money from the economy.

Getting to Know the GBP

The GBP must be pretty popular kid since it has a lot of cool nicknames. Aside from being called the Sterling and the Pound, GBP pairs have awesome nicknames such as Cable (GBP/USD) and Guppy (GBP/JPY). Impressive, huh?

I like to bust a move…

GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the forex market. How come? Remember, London has long been a major financial center in the world. With major business transactions taking place every day, lots of moolah goes in and out of London.

Still, the GBPUSD only accounts for 14% of daily global trades, making it just the third most active pair traded. This is probably the reason why spreads on the GBP/USD tend to be a pip or two more than that of the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY.

… and traders like me because I’ve got some nice curves.

With so many big time corporations being based in London, there are many highly attractive investments to be found in the U.K. market.

Couple this with having some of the higher interest rates (usually) amongst the major currencies, investors may find British securities to be more attractive. In order to get their hands on these assets, investors would first need to purchase some GBP.

I’m nimble during the London session…

GBP/USD trading volume is the highest during the European session, with potential for strong moves during the New York session when key U.K. and U.S. data is released.

The Asian session doesn’t normally provide much movement as European traders are still in bed while U.S. traders have just finished their day.

… but be careful ’cause I can get kinda rowdy!

The GBP pairs are very prone to volatile moves because of its lower level of liquidity compared to that of the EUR.

With liquidity growing thin at certain times in the market, the GBP can get caught in one direction, especially if there are large buy or sell orders in that direction. Compared to other currency pairs, GBP pairs tend to react more strongly to surprise economic data releases.

Important Economic Indicators for the GBP

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The BOE looks at this account as a measure of inflation. It measures the change in prices of consumer goods.

Unemployment Rate – This is the measure of how many unemployed people there are in the UK economy. Analysts look at this account carefully because it could be a leading indicator of future spending. How come? Well, if a person has no job, he has no money. Without any money, nobody would be able to afford tea time!

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – This figure reflects the state of the UK economy. It indicates whether the economy is growing and booming, or if it is stuck in the English Channel and drowning.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – This index surveys business managers and asks them their view of the current economic landscape. Scores above 50.0 indicate improving conditions which may lead to expansion, while scores below 50.0 hint at possible contraction.

Gfk Consumer Confidence report -This report gauges consumers’ confidence about current and future economic conditions. The more confident consumers are regarding the state of the UK economy, the more likely that they will be willing to spend.

What Moves the GBP

Changes in Monetary Policy

Many investors look at the pound for higher yielding assets and for carry trade. Changes in the MPC’s interest rate alter sentiment towards the pound as it affects the yield of British securities.

In addition, changes in the bank repo rate also reveal the BOE’s outlook on the economy.

If the BOE officials feel that the economy is hurting, they will either expand quantitative easing measures or cut interest rates, which will signal to the public that the economy is unstable.

If the BOE feels that economy’s rise may lead to inflationary pressures down the road, they may cut back on quantitative easing or hike interest rates.

Developments in the euro zone and US

Like other currency pairs, GBP/USD is also heavily affected by developments in the euro zone and U.S. U.S. economic data directly affect investors and traders sentiment in the market. Good or bad data from the U.S. can either send market participants running to the GBP on increased risk appetite, or looking for safety in the USD on account of risk aversion.

The Spill Over Effect

The euro zone accounts for a majority of the U.K.’s trade relations. Because of this, you should also keep your binoculars ready to see any developments over in the mainland (Remember, the U.K. is an island!). Any bad news or poor economic performance could potentially lead to bearish sentiment towards the GBP.

Driven by Risk Sentiment

Albeit small, the GBP benefits from the fact that it boats a higher interest rate amongst other major currencies. When traders are in search of greater yields, they will look to the U.K. because of the potential of getting a higher return on their investments. When traders want to unwind their high-yielding investments and look for USD-dearest, they will start selling off the GBP.

Trading GBP/USD

GBP/USD is traded in amounts denominated in GBP. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 GBP and mini lot sizes are 10,000 GBP.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of GBP/USD (for GBP/USD, this is 0.0001) by GBPUSD’s spot rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in U.S. dollars. For example, if the current GBP/USD rate is 1.5000 and the leverage is 100:1, 1,500 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade one standard lot of 100,000 GBP. Take note, a higher GBP/USD sport rate requires more USD in available margin, while a lower rate would need less USD for margin.

GBP/USD Trade Tactics

One way to trade GBP pairs is to take note of when key reports come out. GBP pairs tend to react more strongly to economic reports.

For example, if U.K. GDP figures were to come in much better than expected, it could lead to massive rally in the GBP. Even if you were to enter late, you could still grab a bunch of pips because GBP pairs really move a lot.

Be careful though – GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs are the most volatile among the majors. In fact, GBPUSD moves around 160 pips per day on average. Because the GBP is so volatile, you might want to set wider stop loss orders to withstand all the strong moves in the market.

UK

英国

英国有很多的方言,因为它由四国组成——英格兰、北爱尔兰、苏格兰和威尔士。

英国以女王为国家元首,是一个君主立宪制国家,但它实际上是由位于英国首都伦敦的议会体系管理的。

英国也是欧盟的成员国之一。然而,英国没有加入欧元区,而是坚持以英镑为本国货币。不幸的是,这意味着拥有申根签证的你不能前往英国旅行,如果你想去,你需要另外的签证。

英国:事实、数据和特点

邻国:爱尔兰、德国、法国

面积:94,058平方英里

人口:63,047,162

人口密度:670.3人每平方英里

首都:伦敦(人口8,615,000)

国家元首:伊莉莎白女王二世

政府首脑首相:卡梅隆(DavidCameron)

货币:英镑(GBP)或先令

主要进口:产成品、机械、燃料、食物

主要出口:产成品、燃料、化学制品、烟草、贝克汉姆(DavidBeckham)、考威尔(SimonCowell)

进口伙伴:德国13.1%、中国9.1%、荷兰7.5%、法国6.1%、美国5.8%、挪威5.5%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.2%

出口伙伴:美国11.4%、德国11.2%、法国7.7%、爱尔兰6.8%、比利时5.4%

时区:GMT

网站:http://number10.gov.uk

经济概览

英国是世界上第7大经济体,也是欧洲第三大经济体,仅次于德国和法国。历史告诉我们,它是需要纳入考虑范围的一股势力。毕竟,英国打开了工业革命的大门。

英国曾是世界上最大的帝国。在过去的300年间,英国都是重要的世界大国。这就是所谓的稳定性。

在贸易方面,英国是一个净进口国,有着持续的贸易逆差。它最大的贸易伙伴是欧元区,更确切的说是德国。

与欧元区的贸易活动占英国贸易总量的一半多。美国,从个体的角度来讲,是英国最大的贸易伙伴。

英国还是世界上历史最悠久的重要金融中心的所在地。我们指的是伦敦!拥有伦敦这样的金融中心放大了英国在全球贸易中的作用。

货币和财政政策

有一个小知识点你要记住:世界上最古老的银行是英国央行(BOE)。那时,英国正经历经济扩张,政府领导人意识到他们需要一个实体来帮他们促进国际贸易。由此英国央行诞生了。在1694年,英国央行创立,目的是促进贸易和增长。

现在英国央行货币政策的主要目的是维持物价稳定,同时增加就业率。

英国央行的目标通胀率是2.0%,通过消费者物价指数(CPI)来衡量。为了达到它的目标,英国央行可以改变利率水平。

英国央行中掌管利率的部门是货币政策委员会(MPC)。

MPC每月都会召开会议,并在会议后公布货币政策的变动,包括利率变动。和英国其他事物一样,利率在英国有个别名——银行再回购利率。

英国央行MPC应用的主要货币政策工具是银行再回购利率和公开市场操作。银行再回购利率是由英国央行根据其自身的市场运营状况制定的,目的是帮助达成通胀目标。每当MPC改变这一利率,商业银行的利率就会受到影响。这将影响经济的支出和产出,进而影响成本和价格。

同其他央行一样,如果英国央行提高再回购利率,它的目的是要抑制通胀。相反,如果它降低利率则表明它想要刺激经济增长。

当英国央行采用公开市场操作时,英国央行通过买卖以英镑定价的债券或证券来改变市场上的货币供给。这是增加金融市场流动性的替代方法之一。

如果英国央行认为需要刺激经济增长,它将“印更多的钱”,然后通过购买政府或公司债券使这些钱流入市场。

相反,如果英国央行觉得经济发展不错,它将卖出更多的证券,“收回”市场上的钱。

了解英镑

英镑一定是个十分受欢迎的孩子,因为它有不少别名。除了被叫作先令和英镑,英镑还被称作电缆(英镑/美元)和孔雀鱼(英镑/日元)。印象深刻,嗯?

交易活跃

英镑/美元是外汇市场上最活跃的货币对。为什么呢?记住,伦敦长久以来就是世界主要的金融中心之一,每天都有大量的交易,钞票频繁进出。

此外,英镑/美元占到世界日交易量的14%,使它成为第三大有吸引力的货币对。这也许就是为什么英镑/美元的点差比欧元/美元和美元/日元高一两点的原因。

收益较高

许多大公司的总部设在伦敦,英国市场中有许多极具吸引力的投资。

与此同时由于在主要货币中通常利率较高,投资者更加觉得英国证券十分诱人。为了买入这些资产,他们需要购买英镑。

波动时段

英镑/美元的交易量在欧洲时段最高,在纽约时段,当英国和美国方面数据公布时,英镑也存在潜在的巨大波动行情。

亚洲时段,它的变动不大,因为大多数欧洲交易商还在休息,而美国交易商也刚结束了一天的交易。

高波动性

英镑货币对倾向于较剧烈的波动,因为相对于欧元,它的流动性较低。随着市场的流动性变低,英镑被套牢,特别是有大量买卖的时候。与其他货币对相比,英镑货币对对预期之外数据的反应较为强烈。

与英镑相关的重要经济数据

消费者物价指数(CPI):英国央行以此衡量通胀。它反映日常消费品价格的变动。

失业率:该数据反映英国经济中失业人口的数量。分析家们通常会很仔细的研究这一数据,因为它是未来开支的领先指标。为什么呢?如果一个人没有工作,他就没钱。没钱,就没人去喝下午茶!

国内生产总值(GDP):这一数据反映英国经济状况。它将显示英国经济是繁荣增长,还是困在英吉利海峡里,溺水了。

采购经理指数(PMI):这个指数调查的是采购经理,询问他们对现有经济状况的看法。读数超过50.0表示状况改善,经济扩张,低于50.0则暗示经济有可能处于紧缩状态。

GFT消费者信心报告:这份报告衡量消费者对现有和未来经济状况的信心。消费者对英国经济状况的信心越高,他们就更愿意消费。

哪些因素影响英镑走势?

货币政策变动

许多投资者关注英镑是为了寻找高回报资产和套利交易。MPC利率的变动将改变市场对英镑的情绪,因为变动会影响英国证券收益率。

此外,银行再回购利率的变动反映了英国央行对经济前景的看法。

如果英国央行的官员觉得经济受挫,他们或者扩大量化宽松措施,或者降低利率,这将向公众发出英国经济不稳的信号。

如果英国央行觉得经济呈上升态势,将会导致通胀压力,那他们将减少量化宽松或增加利率。

欧元区和美国的发展

同其他货币对一样,英镑/美元受到欧元区和美国发展状况的影响。美国经济数据直接影响市场上投资者和交易商的情绪。美国数据的好坏可能会使市场参与者风险偏好增加,跑向英镑,也可能使他们趋向于规避风险,转向避险天堂美元。

溢出效应

欧元区是英国交易伙伴中十分重要的一员。因此,你也要时刻关注欧洲大陆的发展(记住,英国是岛国!)。任何不好的消息或不佳的经济表现都有可能导致英镑看跌。

受风险偏好影响

尽管少,英镑因利率高于其他主要货币而受益。当交易者寻求高收益时,他们将看向英国,因为他们的投资在此获得高收益的潜力较大。当交易者放弃高回报投资,他们将转向他们亲爱的美元,卖出英镑。

英镑/美元交易

英镑/美元交易数量是以英镑衡量的。一标准手是10万英镑,一迷你手是1万英镑。

每点价值以美元度量,根据英镑/美元的现价计算。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果英镑/美元当前汇率是1.5000,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为1500美元。不过,随着英镑/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

英镑/美元交易技巧

交易英镑货币对的第一个方法是关注报告发布的时间。英镑对经济报告的反应较为强烈。

例如,如果英国GDP数值高于预期,它可能会导致英镑大幅上涨。即使你进晚了,你也能获得收益,因为英镑涨了很多。

不过要小心——英镑/美元和英镑/日元是所有主要货币对中,波动最为剧烈的。事实上,英镑/美元平均每天变动160点。因为英镑波动太剧烈,你可能会想制定较宽的止损指令来抵抗市场的大幅变动。