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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 3 of 10

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Euro Zone

The European Union (EU) is a brotherhood of 28-member states which started from a tiny gang of six neighboring states in 1951. By the magical powers of the Treaty of Maastricht, it then grew into a large economic and political bloc, making it the largest economic region in the world. Talk about playing a huge role in international trade and global economic affairs!

Among these EU member states, eighteen countries adopted the euro (EUR) as their common currency. These nations comprise the euro zone, which is also called the European Monetary Union (EMU) or Euroland.

Members of this elite club are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.

Aside from adopting a common currency, these nations also share the same monetary policy set by the European Central Bank (ECB).

European Union

Euro zone: Facts, Figures, and Features

European Union Flag

  • Member Nations: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain
  • Size: 1,691,658  square miles
  • Population: 505,665,73
  • Density: 300.9 people per square mile
  • Head of European Commission: Jose Manuel Barroso
  • Head of European Parliament: Martin Schulz
  • Head of European Council: Herman Van Rompuy
  • Currency: Euro (EUR)
  • Main Imports: Machinery, vehicles, aircraft, plastics, crude oil, chemicals, textiles, metals
  • Main Exports: Machinery, motor vehicles, aircraft, plastics, pharmaceuticals and other chemicals, Antonio Banderas, Penelope Cruz, Jean-Claude “The Muscles from Brussels” van Damme
  • Imports partners: China 15.89%, U.S. 11.97%, Russia 11.22%, Norway 6.13%, Switzerland 5.14%
  • Exports partners: U.S. 19.07%, Russia 8.03%, Switzerland 7.49%, China 6%, Turkey 4.14%
  • Time Zones: GMT, GMT+1, GMT+2
  • Website: http://www.europa.eu

Economic Overview

The euro zone, which comprises more than half of the nations in the EU, ranks as the largest economy with a GDP of $18.45 trillion in 2011. Being a services-oriented economy, services account for a whopping 70% of its GDP!

On top of that, the euro zone takes pride in being the second most attractive investment market for domestic and international investors.

As an economic union, the euro zone has a standardized system of laws, particularly for trade. The size of their entire economy makes the euro zone a major player in the international trade arena.

Because the individual countries are grouped as one entity, it enables them to facilitate trade easier, mostly with its number one trade partner, the U.S.

This active participation in international trade also has a significant impact on the role of the EUR as a reserve currency.

This is because countries who transact with the euro zone need to have a significant amount of reserve currencies in order to reduce exchange rate risk and minimize transaction costs.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The European Central Bank (ECB) acts as the governing body for the monetary policy of the EU. Led by the current ECB President Mario Andretti… errr, we mean Mario Draghi, the Executive Board also consists of the ECB Vice President and four other policymakers.

Along with the top guns from the national central banks within the euro zone, they make up the ECB Governing Council who vote on monetary policy changes.

The main objective of the ECB is to maintain price stability in the entire region – quite a tall order! To achieve this goal, the euro zone signed the Maastricht Treaty which applied a certain set of criteria for the member nations. Here are some of the requirements:

  • The nation’s inflation rate must not exceed the average inflation of the three best performing (lowest inflation rates) states by more than 1.5%.
  • Their long-term interest rates must not exceed the average rates of these low-inflation states by more than 2%.
  • Exchange rates must stay within the range of the exchange rate mechanism for at least a couple of years.
  • Their government deficit must be less than 3% of their GDP.

If a nation fails to meet these conditions, they are penalized with a hefty fine. Yikes!

The ECB also makes use of their minimum bid rate and open market operations as their monetary policy tools. The ECB minimum bid rate or repo rate is the rate of return the central bank offers to the central banks of its member states. They make use of this rate to control inflation.

Open market operations, on the other hand, are used to manage interest rates, control liquidity, and establish monetary policy stance. Such operations are conducted through buying or selling of government securities in the market.

In order to increase liquidity, the ECB buys securities and pays with euros, which then get circulated. Conversely, to mop up excess liquidity, the ECB sells securities in exchange for euros.

Other than making use of those monetary policy tools, the ECB can also opt to intervene in the foreign exchange market to further cap inflation. Because of this, traders pay close attention to comments from the Governing Council members since these could impact the EUR.

Getting to Know the euro

Aside from being dubbed the anti-dollar, the euro is also nicknamed “fiber.” Some say that this nickname was derived from the Trans-Atlantic fiber optic, which was used for communication, while some argue that it was from the paper used to print European banknotes way back then! Here are some of the other characteristics of the euro.

They call me the Anti-Dollar!

With the euro popularly known as the anti-dollar, EUR/USD is the most actively traded currency pair. As such, it is also the most liquid of the major pairs and offers the lowest pip spread.

I’m busy during the London session…

The euro is most active during 8:00 am GMT, at the beginning of the London session. It often has little movement during the latter half of the U.S. session, around 5:00 pm GMT.

…and I’ve had a few relationships.

EUR/USD is often linked to the movement of capital markets, such as bonds and equities. It is negatively correlated to the movement of the S&P 500, which represents the performance of the U.S. stock market.

This correlation was thrown out of sync after the 2007 financial crisis though. Now, EUR/USD has a slightly positive correlatoin with the S&P 500.

EUR/USD is also negatively correlated to USD/CHF, reflecting how the Swiss Franc moves in almost perfect tandem with the euro.

Important Economic Indicators for the euro

Gross Domestic Product – Gross domestic product is the central measure of economic growth in the region. Since Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone, its GDP tends to move the euro the most.

Employment Change – The euro is also sensitive to changes in employment, particularly in the euro zone’s largest economies like Germany and France.

German Industrial Production – This measures the change in volume of output from Germany’s manufacturing, mining, and quarrying industries. Because of this, it reflects the short-term strength of German industrial activity.

German IFO Business Climate Survey – This is one of the country’s key business surveys. Conducted monthly, this takes into the account the current business situation of Germany as well as expectations for future conditions.

Budget Deficits – Recall that one of the criterias in the Maastricht Treaty requires that euro zone economies keep their debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% and their deficit less than 3% of its annual GDP. Failure to achieve these targets could result to fiscal instability in the euro zone.

Consumer Price Index – Since one of the goals of the ECB is to maintain price stability, they keep an eye on inflation indicators such as the CPI. If the annual CPI deviates from the central bank target, the ECB could make use of its monetary policy tools to keep inflation in check.

What Moves the EUR?

Euro zone Fundamentals

Reports of strong economic performance by the euro zone as a whole, or by its member nations, can boost the euro higher. For instance, better than expected GDP reports from Germany or France could encourage traders to be bullish on the euro.

Uncle Sam’s Groovy Moves

Sudden changes in market sentiment, buoyed mostly by U.S. economic data, tend to have a huge impact on EUR/USD.

Being considered the anti-dollar, the euro is also swayed by talks of reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar. Euro as the new reserve currency, anyone?

Differences in Rates of Return

Bond spread between 10-year U.S. government bonds and 10-year Bunds (German bonds) usually indicate the direction of EUR/USD.

If the difference between the yields of the U.S. bonds and Bunds widens, EUR/USD moves in favor of the currency with the higher yield.

Similar to bond yields, interest rate differentials also serve as an excellent indicator for the EUR/USD movement. For instance, traders usually compare the Euribor futures rate with the Eurodollar futures rate.

Just to clear things up: “Euribor” is an acronym that stands for Euro interbank offer rate, which is the rate Euro zone banks use for inter-bank transactions, while Eurodollars are deposits denominated in U.S. dollars.

Trading EUR/USD

EUR/USD is traded in amounts denominated in euros. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 EUR and mini lot sizes are 10,000 EUR.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of EUR/USD (that’s 0.0001) by EUR/USD’s rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For instance, if the current EUR/USD rate is 1.4000 and the leverage is 100:1, it will take $1,400.00 USD in available margin to be able to trade one standard lot position of 100,000 EUR.

As EUR/USD’s rate increases, a larger available margin in U.S. dollars is required. The lower EUR/USD’s rate, the lower the required available margin in U.S. dollars.

EUR/USD Trading Tactics

Pro-euro moves, which typically take place upon the release of strong economic figures from the euro zone, create opportunities for long EUR/USD trades.

Anti-euro moves, which usually occur when weak euro zone economic reports are released, provide basis for a short EUR/USD trade.

Since EUR/USD usually acts as a measure of traders’ view on the U.S. dollar, sensing the direction of the U.S. dollar could create some trade strategies for EUR/USD.

For instance, if traders are expected to buy the dollar if the U.S. retail sales report prints better-than-expected results, you could look for an opportunity to short EUR/USD.

Aside from waiting for EUR/USD pair to retest or break significant support and resistance levels, taking a trade based on retracements also works for this pair.

EUR/USD is highly susceptible to retracements, which means that setting short or long orders at significant Fibonacci levels could yield some pips. By catching retracements, one may be able to enter the trade at a better price than just simply jumping in the direction of the price movement.

If you’re a bit more adventurous, there are other euro pairs, such as EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, and EUR/GBP, that you can check out! Each EUR cross has cool and unique characteristics too.

For instance, EUR/JPY, which is more volatile than EUR/USD, tends to be more active during the Asian and London sessions.

EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF tend to be range-bound most of the time. The latter is more prone to large spikes though due to lower level of liquidity.

Spanish

 

欧元区

欧盟(EU)由27个成员国组成,它是由1951年6个邻国组成的联盟发展而成。受马斯特里赫特条约的约束,欧盟逐渐演变成了一个经济政治集团,是世界上最大的经济区,在国际交易和全球经济事务方面作用巨大。

在欧盟成员国中,有17个成员国选择将欧元(EUR)作为他们的统一货币。这些国家形成了欧元区,也被称作欧洲货币联盟(EMU)。

这一精英集团的成员包括:奥地利、比利时、塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚。芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、马耳他、荷兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙。

除了采用统一货币,这些国家同时遵循由欧洲央行(ECB)制定的相同的货币政策。

欧元区:事实、数据和特点

成员国:奥地利、比利时、塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚。芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、马耳他、荷兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙。

面积:1,669,807平方英里

人口:501,259,840

人口密度:300.2人每平方英里

欧洲委员会主席:巴罗佐(Jose Manuel Barroso)

欧洲议会主席:Martin Schulz

欧洲理事会主席:范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)

货币:欧元(EUR)

主要进口商品:机械、汽车、飞机、塑料、原油、化学品、纺织品、金属

主要出口商品:机械、机动车、飞机、塑料、药品及其他化学品、班德拉斯(Antonio Banderas)、克鲁兹(Penelope Cruz)

进口伙伴:中国15.98%,美国11.97%,俄罗斯11.22%,挪威6.13%,瑞士5.14%

出口伙伴:美国19.07%,俄罗斯8.03%,瑞士7.49%,中国6%,土耳其4.14%

时区:GMT,GMT东一区、GMT东二区

网站:http://www.europa.eu

经济概览

欧元区包含了欧盟半数以上的国家。在2011年,欧元区以9.4万亿欧元的GDP成为世界最大经济体。欧元区经济以服务为导向,服务业收入占GDP的70%。

除此之外,欧元区对国内和国际投资者来说是第二有吸引力的投资市场。

作为一个经济联盟,欧元区有一套标准的法律体系,特别是在贸易方面。欧元区整体的经济规模使其成为国际交易竞技场中一个重要的参与者。

因为多个国家作为同一实体出现,他们的交易得到了促进,尤其是和他们第一位的交易伙伴,美国之间的交易。

积极参与国际贸易使得作为储备货币之一的欧元作用重大。

这是因为在欧元区交易的国家需要大量的储备货币来减少外汇交易风险和缩小交易成本。

货币和财政政策

欧洲央行(ECB)是欧盟货币政策的主管部门。有央行行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)领导的行政董事会还包括1位副行长和4位政策制定者。同欧元区各国的央行高层一起,他们组成了欧洲央行管理委员会,委员会对货币政策的变更有表决权。

欧洲央行的主要任务是维持整个地区内的物价稳定——很高的要求!为了达成这一目标,欧元区各国签订了马斯特里赫特条约,其中约定了各成员国的行为准则。下面是其中的一些规定:

一国的通货膨胀率不得比表现最好(通胀率最低)的三国的通胀的平均值多出超过1.5%。

长期利率不得比这些表现好的国家的利率多出超过2%。

在一定年限内,汇率要处于汇率机制内。

政府赤字不得超过GDP的3%。

如果有国家未能达到上述要求,将会被处以一笔重大的罚款。

欧洲央行把调整基准利率和公开市场操作作为他的货币政策工具。欧洲央行的基准利率或再融资利率是央行给成员国央行的回报率。央行利用这一利率来控制通胀。

公开市场操作则用于掌控利率,控制流动性和表明货币政策立场。这些政策是通过政府回购政府证券实现的。

为了增加流动率,欧洲央行买入证券,支出欧元,然后使其流通。相反为了解决流动性过剩,欧洲央行卖出证券,换取欧元。

除了使用货币政策工具,欧洲央行也会通过干预外汇市场来降低通胀。因此,交易者们要紧密关注管理委员会成员们的言论,因为他们对欧元影响重大。

了解欧元

除了被称作反美元,欧元的昵称还有fiber。有人说这一昵称源于跨大西洋光纤(用于通讯),也有人认为它源于用以印刷货币的纸。下面是欧元的一些特点。

他们叫我反美元!

欧元是人们熟知的反美元,欧元/美元是交易最为广泛的货币对。同时,它们也是流通性最好,交易点差最小。

我在伦敦交易时间很忙……

欧元在GMT8:00——伦敦交易时间——最为活跃。再接下来的美国交易时间——GMT下午5:00左右——通常变化不大。

……我有一些关系。

欧元/美元的走向与资本市场,如债券、股票的动向相关。它与反映美国股市变化的标普500指数呈逆向相关关系。

在2007年金融危机后,二者之间的变化并不同步。现在欧元/美元同标普500指数呈现轻微的正相关关系。

欧元/美元的走向与美元/瑞郎的走向呈逆向相关关系,这表明瑞郎基本上与欧元成平行变动。

欧元的重要经济指标

国内生产总值:国内生产总值主要衡量该区域经济增长由于德国是欧元区最大的经济体,他的GDP对欧元变动的影响最大。

就业变化:欧元对于就业状况的变化也十分敏感,特别是对该区域内主要经济体德国和法国的就业变化十分敏感。

德国工业生产:该数据衡量德国制造业、采掘业的总产出。因此,它反映德国短期内工业活动的强弱。

德国IFO商业景气指数:这是该国重要的商业调查之一。该调查每月进行一次,研究德国商业现况和对未来状况的预期。

预算赤字:马斯特里赫特条约中有一条规定欧元区内的经济体要把他们的负债同GDP的比率控制在60%以下,赤字不得超过年GDP的3%。如果未能实现这些目标将导致欧元区财政波动。

消费者物价指数(CPI):由于欧洲央行的目标之一是维持物价稳定,他们十分关注通胀的指示器如CPI。如果年度CPI偏离了央行的目标,那么欧洲央行将利用货币政策工具来控制通胀。

什么使欧元发生变动?

欧元区基本面

欧元区整体经济表现良好,或其成员国经济表现良好,则欧元看涨。例如,超预期的德国或法国GDP报告将使投资者看好欧元。

美国经济的变动

市场情绪的突然变化,大多是受美国经济数据的影响对欧元/美元走势的影响很大。

作为“反美元”货币的欧元,也受到全球外汇储备摆脱美元资产,极力寻求多样化的影响,有人建议将欧元作为新的储备货币。

收益率的差异

美国十年期国债和德国十年期国债之间的收益利差会反映欧元/美元的走向。

如果两种债券之间的利差变大,则欧元/美元根据收益较高的货币的变化而变化。

与债券收益相近,利率之间的差异同样是反映欧元/美元变化的重要指示器。例如,投资者经常会比较欧元区同业拆借利率期货收益和欧元美元期货收益之间的差异。

注意:“Euribor”是欧元区银行同业拆解利率的缩写。该利率被欧元区银行用来进行银行间交易。欧元美元期货则是以美元定价的。

欧元/美元交易

欧元/美元交易数量是以欧元衡量或计价的。一标准手是10万欧元,迷你手是1万欧元。

每点价值以美元标价,以欧元/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果欧元/美元的现有汇率为1.4000,杠杆是100,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为1400美元。

欧元/美元汇率上升,需要的美元保证金数量增加。欧元/美元汇率下降,需要的美元保证金数量减少。

欧元/美元交易技巧

欧元看涨通常出现在欧元区强势经济报告发布后,给欧元/美元多头交易带来机遇。

欧元看跌通常出现在欧元区弱势经济报告发布后,为欧元/美元空头交易提供基础。

由于欧元/美元走势通常作为衡量交易者对美元态度指示器,了解美元动向会给欧元/美元交易提供一些交易策略。

例如,如果由于美国零售销售报告超预期,交易者将会买入美元,这时你应做空欧元/美元。

除了等待欧元/美元测试或打破重要的支撑或阻力水平,根据回撤进行交易同样也行得通。

欧元/美元对回撤十分敏感,这意味着在重要的斐波那契水平处做空头或多头交易同样会赚到钱。通过利用回撤,投资者将在进入交易时获得比根据价格变化方向跳动更为合适的价格。

如果你爱冒险,还有其他的欧元对,如欧元/日元,欧元/瑞郎和欧元/英镑,可供选择。每一个欧元对都有其独特之处。

例如,欧元/日元的不稳定性高于欧元/美元,在亚洲和伦敦交易时段比较活跃。

欧元/英镑和欧元/瑞郎的变化大部分时间都在盘整。由于低流动性,后者更容易出现大幅上涨。