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Country Profiles 国家概况: Page 2 of 10

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United States of America

The United States of America is comprised of 50 states and a federal district. Majority of the country could be found in North America, but the United States also has some territories in the Pacific.

Since its independence from the U.K. on the Fourth of July back in 1776, the U.S. has become an economic superpower not just in the West but also in the whole world.

Being the world’s largest economy, the U.S. plays a serious role in the global market. Just about any economic development in the U.S., such as a rise or fall in consumer spending or an affair by its President that is made public, could create quite a hefty impact on economies all over the world!

United States of America

United States: Facts, Figures, and Features

United States Flag

  • Neighbors: Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Cuba
  • Size: 3,794,101 square miles
  • Population: 309,349,689
  • Density: 87.4 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Washington, D.C.
  • Head of Government: President Barack Obama
  • Famous Actors: Sandra Bullock, Will Smith, Johnny Depp, Halle Berry
  • Currency: U.S. Dollar (USD)
  • Main Imports: Industrial supplies (crude oil, etc.), capital goods (computers, telecom equipments, automobile parts, office machines, electric power machinery), consumer goods (automobile, clothing, medicines, furniture, toys), and agricultural products
  • Main Exports: Capital goods (transistors, aircraft, automobile parts, computers, telecom equipment), industrial supplies (organic chemicals), consumer goods (automobiles, medicines), agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) , Barbies, Xbox consoles, and Apple iPods
  • Import Partners: China (19%), Canada (14.1%), Mexico (12%), Japan (6.4%), Germany (4.7%)
  • Export Partners: Canada (18.9%), Mexico (14%), China (7.2%), and Japan (4.5%)
  • Time Zones: GMT -10, GMT -9, GMT -8, GMT -7, GMT -6, GMT -5
  • Website: http://www.usa.gov

Economic Overview

The U.S. is widely considered to be the richest country in the world, producing about $16.24 trillion in output in 2012. It ranked 13th in 2012 in terms of per capita income – that’s just the country’s total income divided by its population – of about $51,700 in a year.

The U.S.’s main industries are aircrafts, automobiles, transistors, telecom equipments, and other industrial materials. Although it might seem that the US economy is heavily oriented towards the manufacturing physical goods, 70% of its output actually comes from the services sector!

Speaking of trade, one key element of the U.S. economy is that the country is notorious for running huge trade deficits (i.e., the total value of goods flowing in to the country is more than the total value of those going out).

The U.S. is also home to the New York Stock Exchange, which is the largest stock exchange in the world. It is also home to the world’s largest bond market, with a market capitalization of over $31 trillion and over $822 billion in bonds traded daily on average.

Being the top economy in the world in today’s globalized market, any domestic event affecting the U.S. also has the potential to affect markets around the world… Yes, even the foreign exchange market!

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Federal Reserve Board, more commonly called the Fed, is the U.S.’s main governing body when it comes to setting and implementing monetary policy.

Monetary policy is just the way the Fed controls the availability and supply of money in the economy and what makes the Fed special from other central banks is that its objectives are based on a longer-term effects of its monetary policy.

The Fed has two main objectives. The first one is keeping the prices of consumer goods and services stable and the second one is making sure that there is sustainable economic growth.

In other words, the Fed just wants to make sure that yo’ Benjies doesn’t lose value and yo’ momma and poppa have jobs!

Within the Fed is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Currently led by Fed Governor Janet Yellen, the FOMC is tasked to make sound and rational decisions on monetary policy.

The FOMC has two main weapons to use in its battle against inflation and achieve its long-term objectives: open market operations and the Fed’s Funds Rate.

The Fed’s first line of defense, its open market operations, is the buying or selling of government financial instruments like securities, notes and bonds.

The Feds Funds Rate, its stronger, more obvious double-barreled shotgun, is the interest rate the Fed offers other commercial banks.

Now, the one accountable for fiscal policy decisions is the U.S. Treasury. Fiscal policy is the use of government spending or tax collection to influence the direction of the economy.

To encourage business activity, the U.S. Treasury, for instance, could choose to lower taxes and to allot more budget on capital infrastructures like highways, schools, broadband, secret military ninja bases, etc. On the other hand, if inflation starts to get out of hand, it could increase tax rates and cut spending.

Getting to Know the USD

Did you know that the nickname “Buck” for the U.S. dollar originated from buckskin, which was a common medium of exchange when the early American settlers traded with the Indians?

Even after paper currency replaced buckskin in the barter system, people still refer to the medium of exchange as bucks! Check out these forex-related properties of the buck:

Liquidity is my thing!

A ginormous amount of currency transactions every day involves the USD. Commodities like gold and crude oil are also denominated in dollars. During the Asian session alone, the dollar takes up around 93% of all the currency transactions!

To put this in perspective, take the New York Stock Exchange and the U.S. bond market for example. The value of the companies listed in the NYSE amounts to $28.5 trillion, about 78% of the size of the world’s $36.6 trillion stock market.

Similarly, of the $82.2 trillion value of the global bond market, the U.S. takes up $31.2 trillion. Every single transaction there, in some way, involves the USD. How’s THAT for liquidity?

The Fed and the U.S. government believe I should remain strong

Over the past few decades, the Fed and the U.S. Treasury have kept a “strong dollar” policy. They believe that monetary and fiscal policy should be geared towards a strong exchange rate of the USD, as it would benefit the U.S. and the rest of the world.

The currencies of many emerging countries rely on me to determine their value

How often have you heard the phrase, the dollar is the world’s reserve currency? Well, the reason behind this is that some countries actually peg their currencies against the dollar!

When a country does this, the government agrees to buy or sell their currency at a fixed priced versus the dollar. While the government can increase and decrease the supply of money, they are still subject to having the equivalent amount of dollars in reserve.

This process magnifies the importance of the dollar around the world, because this means that some economies are entirely dependent on the dollar!

If the dollar’s value were to stage a massive fall, it would produce a wide-reaching negative effect in all the other countries that are pegged their currency on the dollar.

Important Economic Indicators for the USD

Non-farm employment change (NFP) – The NFP employment report measures the change in the number of employed people in the prior month.

GDP – The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is the measure of the country’s total value of all final goods and services.

Retail Sales – The headline retail sales report measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at a retail level. The core version of the report, on the other hand, excludes vehicle sales.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The CPI measures the change in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services. The core account excludes food and energy prices because of their volatile nature.

Personal Consumption Expenditure – This is very similar to the CPI report as it measures the price changes of US consumer goods. The reason why you should look at this report is because this is the one that the Fed looks at when making decisions regarding monetary policy. And we all want to be in cahoots with the experts right?

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Every month, the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report. This index measures the attitude consumers have towards the economy. The more confident consumers are about economic conditions, the more likely they are to spend.

What Moves the USD?

The Gold Rush

Whenever the dollar is at risk of losing its value due to inflation, investors turn to gold for safety. Unlike most financial assets, gold maintains its intrinsic value. Gold is gold is gold – it’s the same everywhere! So when gold prices are rising, it could be a sign that the dollar is losing its appeal.

Economic Developments in the U.S.

Fundamentally, positive economic developments in the U.S. attract more participants to invest in the U.S. An investor would of course need to have some dollars to be able to transact in the U.S. So as the demand for U.S. investments increases, the demand for the greenback rises as well.

Capital Inflows and Outflows

With respect to Japan and London, the U.S. probably has the deepest and most advanced financial markets. This provides the many kings, sultans, billionaires, and heirs around the world many types of investments which they can choose from.

In order to invest in these American assets, investors would first need to convert whatever currency they are holding in to U.S. dollars. The capital inflows and outflows from the U.S. financial markets can have a significant effect on the value of the dollar.

Economic Developments Around the World

Since the USD takes up about majority daily currency transactions, just about any major development in the world (i.e. strong GDP growth in Australia, a stock market crash in Beijing, or a Godzilla attack in Tokyo) affects its short term valuation.

Bond Yield Differentials

With investors always looking for the best deal for their money, it is important to keep track of the differences in the yields of bonds of the U.S. and other foreign countries.

If investors see that bond yields are rising in foreign countries while yields in the U.S. are staying steady or going lower, investors will move their funds out of U.S. bonds (selling their dollars in the process) and begin purchasing foreign bonds.

Rumors on the Interest Rate Grapevine

Market participants pay attention to interest rates trends, and you should too.

If the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, this means that demand for dollar-denominated financial assets (like Treasuries) could rise, which would be bullish for the dollar.

If the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, it could lessen demand for these assets and we could see investors move their funds away from the dollar.

Since Fed officials usually drop hints about the central bank’s future interest rate moves, traders are all ears during policymakers’ speeches.

Trading the USD

USD as the Base Currency

USD/XXX is traded in amounts denominated in USD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 USD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 USD.

The pip value, which is denominated in XXX, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of the USD/XXX, which would be 0.0001 or 0.01 depending on the pair being talked about, by the USD/XXX current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in XXX. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 XXX. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 XXX. For example, if one pip is equal to 0.0001 and the current exchange rate of USD/XXX is 1.4000, one pip of one standard lot would equate to 14 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. With a leverage of 100:1, 1,000 USD is needed to trade 100,000 USD/CAD.

USD as the Quote Currency

XXX/USD is traded in amounts denominated in XXX. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 XXX and mini lot sizes are 10,000 XXX.

The pip value, which is denominated in US dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of the XXX/USD (0.0001 or 0.01 depending on the pair) by the XXX/USD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For example, if the current XXX/USD rate is 0.8900 and the leverage is 100:1, 890 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade on standard lot of 100,000 XXX. However, the as the XXX/USD rate increases, a larger available margin in USD is required. Conversely, the lower the XXX/USD rate is, the less required available margin is needed.

USD Trading Tactics

Now let’s put all these things we just learned and come up with some trade tactics for the USD.

Looking at differences in U.S. economic developments and economic data from other major economic is a good way to start off trading the USD. For example, a jump in the US retail sales and ugly results on UK’s employment situation report would be give you a reason to sell the GBP/USD.

The U.S. dollar index or USDX, which tracks the performance of the USD versus a fixed basket of currencies, is also a great barometer of the strength of the USD. By regularly looking at the U.S. dollar index, you can find some clues on where the USD is headed.

A USDX that is trending upwards could provide you the additional confirmation you need to take a short position on the EUR/USD.

Talks of a Fed funds rate hike, which signals the possibility of higher returns on US assets, encourage traders to buy up the USD. Well, don’t get left behind!

Taking note of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, which is usually part of Fed officials’ speeches, could yield some clues about the direction of the USD.

Hawkish remarks could serve as signals to go long on the USD/JPY while dovish comments could serve as reasons to short the USD/JPY.

Americans

To stay updated on the economic developments in the United States, make sure you read Pip Diddy’s U.S. economic commentary every day!

美国

美国概况

美国由50个州和一个联邦直辖特区组成。该国的大部分领土位于北美洲,不过它还有部分领土位于太平洋。

自从1776年7月4日,从英国手中获得独立以来,美国成为了西方乃至世界的经济强国。

作为世界上最大的经济体,美国在国际市场中扮演着十分重要的角色。

美国:事实、数据及特点

邻国:加拿大、墨西哥、波多黎各、古巴

面积:3,794,101平方英里

人口:309,349,689

人口密度:87.4人每平方英里

首都:华盛顿

政府首脑:巴拉克?奥巴马总统

著名演员:桑德拉?布洛克、杰夫?布里奇斯、约翰?迪普、哈莉?贝瑞

货币:美元(USD)

主要进口商品:工业用品(原油等),资本货物(电脑、通信设备、汽车配件、办公设备、电力机械),生活消费品(汽车、服装、药品、家具、玩具),及农产品

主要出口商品:资本货物(晶体管、飞机、汽车配件、电脑、通信设备),工业用品(有机化工原料),生活消费品(汽车、药品),农产品(大豆、水果、玉米),芭比娃娃,游戏机和苹果播放器

进口伙伴:中国(27%)、加拿大(21.4%)、墨西哥(17.8%)、日本(8.7%)、德国(6.6%)

出口伙伴:加拿大(19.4%)、墨西哥(12.8%)、中国(7.2%)、日本(4.7%)

时区:西十区、西九区、西八区、西七区、西六区、西五区

网站:http://www.usa.gov

经济概况

美国是公认的世界上最富有的国家,2011年产值达15.09万亿美元。2011年国民平均收入——国民生产总值除以总人口——为每年48386美元,位列第8。

美国主要的产业包括飞机、汽车、晶体管、通信设备和其他工业用品。尽管看起来美国经济主要依靠制造物理商品,但实际上其70%的产值来源于服务业。

说到贸易,美国经济的一个重要特点就是贸易逆差巨大(也就是该国进口的商品的价值高于出口的商品的价值)。

美国是世界最大的股票交易市场纽约证交所的所在地。世界最大的债券市场也在美国,其市值超过31万亿美元,每日平均债券交易量超过8220亿美元。

作为当今世界全球化市场中的顶尖经济体,影响美国的国内事物也会影响全球市场……包括外汇交易市场。

货币和财政政策

美联储(FederalReserveBoard,或Fed)是美国主管货币政策的制定和实施的部门。

货币政策是美联储控制经济中货币供给的途径。美联储区别于其他央行的标志是它的目标是通过货币政策的长期作用实现的。美联储有两个目标,一是保持物价和服务业价格稳定,二是保证经济持续增长。

美联储的内部有联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)。目前FOMC由美联储主席伯南克(BenBernanke)领导,制定合理的货币政策是FOMC的要务。FOMC在应对通货膨胀,达成长期目标方面有两个重要武器:公开市场操作和美联储基金利率。

美联储第一条防线公开市场操作是指买入或卖出政府金融工具如证券、票据和债券。

在抑制通胀以及实现其长期目标方面,美联储有两大主要武器:公开市场操作以及联邦基金基准利率。

现在负责财政政策的是美国财政部。财政政策是指用政府花费和税收来影响经济的前进方向。

为了促进商业活动,美国财政部会选择降低税收和增加如公路、学校、宽带、秘密军事基地等基础设施的预算。反之,若通货膨胀无法控制,它将增加税率,减少开支。

了解美元

你知道美元的昵称“Buck”来自于鹿皮,早期美国定居者同印第安人交易时普遍使用的交换媒介吗?

尽管纸币代替了以物换物交易中的鹿皮,人们仍然将这种交换媒介称作buck!让我们来一起了解一下美元与外汇交易相关的属性。

流动性是我的特点!

每天的货币交易中有很大一部分都包含美元。商品如黄金、原油都以美元计价。即使在亚洲交易时段,美元就占到货币交易的93%。

为了让它更实际些,我们就以纽约股票交易所和美国债券市场为例。在纽交所上市的公司市值高达28.5万亿美元,占价值36.6万亿美元的全世界股市的78%。

类似地,在价值82.2万亿美元的全球债券市场中,美国占有31.2万亿。从某种程度上来说,每个交易都涉及到美元。那是怎样的流动性啊?

美联储和美国政府认为我应该保持强势

在过去的几十年中,美联储和美国财政部都坚持了“强势美元”的政策。他们认为货币和财政政策都应为强势的美元汇率服务,因为这不仅有利于美国,也有利于全世界。

新兴国家的货币靠我为它们定价

我们多长时间会听到一次下面这句话,美元是世界储备货币?其背后的原因是一些国家靠美元衡量他们的货币的价值。当一个国家这样做时,其政府同意以一个相对于美元固定的价格买入或卖出该国货币。尽管政府可以增加或减少货币供给,但他们要保证相应的美元储备。

这一过程反映了美元在世界上的重要性,因为它意味着一些经济体完全依赖美元。

如果美元价格大幅下跌,那么它将会对那些用美元衡量本国货币价值的国家带来深远的负面影响。

与美元相关的重要经济指标

非农就业人数(NFP):NFP就业报告衡量就业人数相对上月的变动情况

GDP:国内生产总值(GrossDomesticProduct)报告衡量一国终端产品和服务的总价值。
零售销售:零售销售报告以零售方式销售的产品总价的月度变化。核心零售销售不包括汽车销售。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI反映一篮子商品和服务的价格变化。核心消费者物价指数不包括食物和能源价格,因为它们价格波动频繁。

个人消费支出:这一指标同CPI十分相近,它衡量美国生活消费品的价格变动。你应关注这一报告的原因在于这是美联储制定货币政策时会用作参考的报告。我们也想和专家们一起不是吗?

密歇根大学消费者信心指数:每月,密歇根大学都会发布它的消费者信心报告。这一指数反映消费者对经济的态度。消费者对经济状况越有信心,他们的消费就会越高。

哪些因素影响美元走势?

淘金热

每当美元受通货膨胀的影响贬值时,投资者们都会为了安全转投黄金。不同于其他金融资产,黄金能够保持它的内在价值。黄金就是黄金,到哪都一样。因此金价上升表明美元在失去它的吸引力。

美国经济发展

美国积极的经济发展状况将吸引更多的投资者。投资者需要美元来完成交易。随着美国的投资需求的增加,美元的需求也会增加。

资本流入和外流

与日本和英国相比,美国有最深、最先进的金融市场。其中为世界各地的国王、苏丹、亿万富翁和继承人们提供了多种多样的投资方式义工选择。

想要投资美国的资产,投资者要把他们持有的货币兑换为美元。美国金融市场的资本流入和外流对美元价格的影响巨大。

世界经济发展

因为每天多数货币交易中都包含美元,世界的任何主要事件(澳大利亚GDP增长迅猛,中国股市崩盘,或是日本受到哥斯拉攻击)都会影响美元的短期价格变动。

债券收益差异

投资者都会寻找对自己有利的交易,因此了解美国和其他国家的债券收益十分重要。

如果投资者发现外国的债券收益上涨,而美国的债券收益不变或下降,则投资者会将他们的钱从美国债券中抽出(同时卖掉他们手中的美元),买入外国的债券。

利率变动消息

市场参与者会关注利率走向,你也应该如此。

如果美联储预计会提高利率,那么对以美元标价的金融资产(如美国国债)的需求就会增加,美元看涨。

如果美联储预计会降低利率,对以美元标价的金融资产(如美国国债)的需求就会减少,投资者会将他们的资金抽离美元。

因为美联储官员通常会对央行未来的利率变动给出提示,因此交易者要注意听他们的讲话。

美元交易

美元作为基础货币

美元/XXX交易数量是以美元衡量的。一标准手是10万美元,迷你手是1万美元。

每点价值以XXX度量,小数点后四位或后两位即为一点,通常,日元货币对小数点后两位为一点。

收益和损失以XXX标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10XXX。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1XXX。比如说,美元/XXX当前汇率是1.4000,那么,一标准手一点的价值就为14美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。在100:1的杠杆下,交易100,000美元的美元/加元,需要1,000美元。

美元作为报价货币

XXX/美元是以XXX定价交易的。一标准手是10万XXX,迷你手是1万XXX。

每点价值以美元标价,以XXX/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位或两位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果XXX/美元当前汇率是0.8900,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为890美元。不过,随着XXX/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

美元交易技巧

现在让我们放下之前所学的,来看看一些美元的交易技巧。

观察美国经济发展和别国经济发展数据之间的差异是进行美元交易的一个很好的开始。例如,美国零售销售的增加和美国就业状况的恶化给了你卖掉英镑/美元很好的理由。

美元指数(USDX)追踪的是美元相对于一篮子货币的表现,是反映美元强弱的气压计。通过定期查看美元指数,你可以找出美元波动的方向。美指的上升趋势表明你需要做欧元/美元空头交易。

有关联邦基金基准利率将上调的讲话表明,美国的资产可能会出现高收益,促使投资者尽量购买美元。别被落在了后面!

我们需留意美联储货币政策的前景,这通常是美联储官员讲话的一部分,它通常会为你提供美元走向的线索。

鹰派言论可以作为做多美元/日元的信号,而鸽派言论则可作为卖出美元/日元的信号。